NFL Predictions for Week 3: Expert Picks, Predicted Scores & Upset Alerts

After two full weeks of the 2025-26 NFL season, we have seen some surprising outcomes, some outcomes we all predicted, teams who we thought would be good get off to slow starts, and teams we had written off showing us they might actually be decent. Simply looking at scores is not going to tell you the full story, though. If you haven’t been able to watch all 32 games from Weeks 1 and 2, betting Week 3 could be difficult.

This is especially true this season as there are at least four backup QBs who will be taking the field. I have watched every snap from each of those games and am happy to share my Week 3 NFL predictions for the 15 remaining games. I have made my picks for every game available below, as well as my SBD formula’s computer-generated score predictions, and surface up my favorite picks for Week 3.

I also run through the major Week 3 injury news, with how it affects betting the game, and which games are expected to experience some impactful weather below.

I went 12-3 on my picks last week, while my formula went 9-6 with its computer-generated predictions. Here are the teams we each like in Week 3:

Week 3 NFL Predictions

Before you grab any of the NFL predictions fir Week 3 from the table above, be sure you check in with SBD’s NFL odds tool, which will ensure you are getting the best odds available for each bet. As mentioned earlier, these are all straight up picks, simply selecting who will win the game.

If you’re looking for more than moneyline picks, check out Zach Reger’s Week 3 NFL picks against the spread.

If you’re wondering why there are decimals in my computer-generated score predictions, that’s because my SBD formula is crunching data to come up with the scores, and I felt it was valuable to present.

While the computer-generated score predictions typically get better as the season goes on, since it compiles more and more data on each team, it’s still Week 3 and there are some games where I think it’s being misled by tough/easy opponents for certain teams. I disagree with five of my SBD formula’s computer-generated picks.

• Jaguars over Texans – I think Houston has played two very tough opponents to start the season, while Jacksonville’s data is very inflated thanks to a matchup with the Panthers, who I believe are a bottom-three team in the league, in Week 1.
• Patriots over Steelers – I have a really hard time trusting either of these teams, but feel the Steelers defense is going to see some improvement in the coming weeks. I also don’t believe the Patriots can play power football the way the Jets did in Week 1, nor do they have the burst of Kenneth Walker in their backfield (TreVeyon Henderson isn’t seeing many snaps yet) or a receiver who can get open the way Jaxon Smith-Njigba can.
• Rams over Eagles – I’m not as firm on this one, as I do believe the Rams, thanks to Matthew Stafford, are one of few teams who present a real problem for the Eagles. LA is capable of slowing down Saquon when committing enough players to do so, and have the secondary that can hold up. However, I think the Eagles overcome the problem on Sunday.
• Commanders over Raiders – my formula doesn’t have much to go off with Jayden Daniels ruled out, and Marcus Mariota starting in his place. Mariota has filled in for Daniels in the past, and he managed to pummel a horrific Panthers team in Week 7 last year, but this is a slightly different offense that is preparing for a much more formidable opponent, in my opinion. The Raiders have been good against the run this season, and I don’t trust Mariota to win the game with his arm.
• Lions over Ravens – I think the Lions’ data is very inflated thanks to their Week 2 embarrassment of the Bears. I think Baltimore is the better team on both sides of the ball, and are also playing at home.

I was correct on four of the five games where I disagreed with my formula last week – I guess I know its flaws pretty well after six years together!

NFL Best Bets for Week 3

I believe the best two bets for Week 3 in the NFL are:

1. Texans moneyline
2. Cowboys moneyline

As I explained above, I think the Texans have had it tough against the Rams and Buccaneers so far this season. The Rams rank sixth in the league in defensive pressure percentage, which tallies up the passing plays where the defense hurried, knocked down, or sacked the quarterback, and they do that while only blitzing on 13.2% of their opponents’ passing plays.

The Bucs blitzed the Texans on 44.4% of their passing plays in Week 2, which was the third-most in the NFL and more than 20% greater than what we saw them do in Week 1. This was a Todd Bowles special.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 19, 2025 at 5:17pm

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

110 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 09/21/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758302254561-5a21-864

Both of these games played into their biggest weakness: their offensive line. The Jaguars are middle of the league in both defensive pressure percentage and blitz percentage. I also don’t think Anthony Campanile will put together a scheme as effective as Bowles did for Week 3, and we saw the Texans take a good step forward in Week 2.

I think we see another improvement from the offense in Week 3, while Houston’s defense offers the toughest test Jacksonville has seen yet. I’m betting on a desperate Texans team to avoid dropping to 0-3.

While it was certainly a little concerning seeing the Cowboys almost lose to the Giants at home in Week 2, I think overcoming that adversity and getting a win is going to be good for Dallas. They have the right leadership in place to make the most of it.

I worry about what last week did to the Bears, though. I don’t think they have the veteran leadership to ensure morale stays high after the beating they took in Detroit. It’s difficult to come into a season with high expectations and then have them crushed so firmly in back-to-back weeks to start the season. I’m not sure Caleb Williams can bounce back from it quickly yet.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 19, 2025 at 5:19pm

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears

-115 on Bet365

SCHEDULED • 09/21/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758302342182-5a21-492

The Bears defense is getting gashed on the ground and through the air so far, allowing the second-most pass yards per attempt and the fifth-most rushing yards per attempt. If we do see some rain in this game that affects throwing, I trust Dallas’ ground game much more than I do Chicago’s. If we have clear weather, I think Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will enjoy some big performances.

Sadly, two of the three picks I got wrong last week were included as my best bets for the week. Hopefully I am putting my confidence behind the right picks this week!

My formula is most confident in the Colts beating the Texans. It has Indianapolis winning the game 33.9 – 6.1, which is a 27.8-point margin of victory. It is also extremely confident in the Packers beating me Browns, where it is predicting a 22.4-point margin of victory for Green Bay on the road.

NFL Week 3 Upset Picks

There are three teams I am predicting to pull off upsets in Week 3:

1. Texans over Jaguars (-1.5)
2. Bengals over Vikings (-3)
3. Raiders over Commanders (-3.5)

Each of these is classified as an “upset” simply because of the spread in their game has them listed as the underdog. I discussed why I like the Texans and Raiders earlier in this article, as its two places where I disagree with my formula. The quick analysis behind both of those is: the Texans have played tough opponents, while the Jaguars have had it easy (and still lost to the Bengals backup QB); and I don’t trust Marcus Mariota to win a game with his arm right now.

When it comes to my upset pick of the Bengals over the Vikings, it boils down to having a lot more faith in Jake Browning than I do Carson Wentz. Browning is in his third year with the team and has seven starts under his belt from 2023. Carson Wentz, on the other hand, signed with the Vikings on August 24, missing all of the preseason.

I believe the Vikings defense is the best unit in this game, but I have very little faith in Minnesota’s offense. Not only has Wentz looked bad in his most recent starts, but their offensive line has been horrific through two games. I don’t love putting too much confidence in betting against Kevin O’Connell, which is why this pick is not featured as one of my best bets for Week 3, but I think Cincinnati will get better QB play to win this one.

Then my SBD formula’s computer-generated score predictions say the following upsets are likely in Week 3:

1. Bengals over Vikings
2. Patriots over Steelers
3. Rams over Eagles
4. Lions over Ravens

My formula was correct in three of its seven predicted upsets last week. Had you bet $10 on each of them, you would have been down $4.50 at the end of the week.

If you want to see which teams are popular picks as underdogs at the sportsbooks, check our our NFL public betting splits data.

NFL Injuries to Know Before Betting Week 3

NFL.com does a great job rounding up all the injury reports for each week, but I have surfaced up what I believe are the most impactful injuries that will play a major role in betting Week 3 below.

Packers at Browns Injuries

• Jayden Reed (WR, Packers): OUT
• Tucker Kraft (TE, Packers): Questionable

The Packers are pretty deep at wide receiver and were able to manage most of Week 1 and all of Week 2 without Reed, but Kraft isn’t just a receiver for them. The tight end is an integral part of their run game and backup Luke Musgrave just doesn’t offer the same run-blocking capabilities.

It doesn’t look good for Kraft’s Week 3 availability, as he missed practice entirely Friday. While his absence isn’t likely to move the betting lines, I think Green Bay will have to lean a little more on the aerial attack against a Browns defense that is already pretty good against the run.

Bengals at Vikings Injuries

• Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals): OUT
• Shemar Stewart (DE, Bengals): OUT

Joe Burrow was placed on the IR after suffering a turf toe injury in Week 2. It will be Jake Browning’s team for the next while. This is, obviously, a significant loss that is playing a major role in the betting lines – I’d expect the Bengals to be upwards of seven-point favorites with Burrow, assuming all else was the same – as well as the Bengals player props.

The good news is Browning filled in pretty admirably for Burrow back in 2023, averaging 266.9 passing yards per game while throwing 11 touchdowns. Thankfully for Cincinnati, they’re not the only team in this matchup dealing with injuries.

• JJ McCarthy (QB, Vikings): OUT
• Aaron Jones (RB, Vikings): OUT
• Ryan Kelly (C, Vikings): OUT
• Justin Skule (LT, Vikings): OUT
• Christian Darrisaw (LT, Vikings): Questionable
• Andrew Van Ginkel (LB, Vikings): Questionable
• Harrison Smith (S, Vikings): Questionable

No team is more injured than the Vikings right now. JJ McCarthy is set to miss Week 3 with an ankle sprain, Aaron Jones was placed on IR after Week 2, and both Ryan Kelly and Justin Skule have been ruled out with concussions. The offensive line was already struggling with those guys, and they’ll now potentially be down to their third-string LT and backup center.

I say potentially, because Christian Darrisaw is listed as questionable, but it sounds like he’s on the wrong side of questionable. Getting him back would be absolutely huge for a team in desperate need of offensive linemen.

Jets at Buccaneers Injuries

• Justin Fields (QB, Jets): OUT

Tyrod Taylor was announced the Week 3 starter pretty early in the week with Justin Fields recovering from a concussion suffered in Week 2. The change at QB is likely going to bring upon a massive change in the Jets’ offensive scheme. Fields was running the ball a lot as the Jets tried to just overpower teams and slowly work their way down the field.

Taylor used to be pretty mobile, but not so much at this point of his career – not that he was ever running QB power in his prime. I’d expect fewer rushing attempts from the offense and more targets for Garrett Wilson and the rest of the New York pass-catchers.

• Chris Godwin (WR, Bucs): OUT
• Tristan Wirfs (LT, Bucs): OUT
• Emeka Egbuka (WR, Bucs): Questionable

After not practicing Wednesday or Thursday due to a hip/groin injury, Emeka Egbuka got in a limited practice on Friday, which is a great sign for his Week 3 availability. If the Bucs are forced to play without him, they would be very thin at wide receiver after Mike Evans. I’d expect to see a heavy dose of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White if that’s the case.

Raiders at Commanders Injuries

• Jayden Daniels (QB, Commanders): OUT
• Austin Ekeler (RB, Commanders): OUT

With Jayden Daniels ruled out for Week 3, Marcus Mariota will take over at quarterback for the Commanders. As I have said above, I think this bodes very well for the Raiders’ chances of winning this game. I think Washington will be forced to lean on Jacory Croskey-Merritt at running back, with Austin Ekeler placed on IR, but Las Vegas has defended the run quite well this season.

Saints at Seahawks Injuries

• Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks): Doubtful
• Devon Witherspoon (CB, Seahawks): Doubtful
• Julian Love (S, Seahawks): Doubtful

Charbonnet unlikely to be in the lineup likely means a lot more volume for Kenneth Walker. Seattle will also likely be without two of their starting defensive backs, as well as Love’s primary backup, Nick Emmanwori. The Saints are one of a few teams in the NFL who I don’t think have the QB to take advantage of the missing starters, though.

Cardinals at 49ers Injuries

• Brock Purdy (QB, 49ers): Questionable
• George Kittle (TE, 49ers): OUT

Though he’s listed as questionable in the injury report, it’s very unlikely Brock Purdy is playing in Week 3. Mac Jones will make his second straight start for the 49ers, which likely means another heavy volume game for Christian McCaffrey. This game becomes a true toss-up, in my opinion, without Purdy.

Chiefs at Giants

• Xavier Worthy (WR, Chiefs): Questionable

Worthy got in limited practices from Wednesday to Friday, which is a pretty good sign for his availability. His presence would give Kansas City a massive boost on offense, and potentially push this spread closer to the key number 7.

Weather Impacting NFL Week 3 Games

• Texans at Jaguars

As of Saturday, there is a 19% chance of rain at kickoff, and potential for thunderstorms since it’s Florida, with moderate winds that are strong enough to potentially affect deep passing and long field goals.

• Saints at Seahawks

There is a 48% chance of rain in Seattle at kickoff. It is expected to be light rain, though, and should not have an affect on the game.

• Cowboys at Bears

Some light showers are expected around kickoff in Chicago, but there is a chance of a real downpour as well. Be sure to check weather closer to kickoff before betting this one!

Who are the top picks for NFL Week 3?

The top picks for NFL Week 3 are the Texans and Cowboys on the moneyline.

What are the biggest upsets predicted for Week 3?

The biggest upset predicted with confidence is the Raiders to beat the Commanders, who will be playing without Jayden Daniels. The biggest upset from my computer-generated score predictions is the Lions to beat the Ravens.

What are the latest NFL injury updates for Week 3?

The biggest injury updates of Week 3 are Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, and JJ McCarthy all being listed as OUT. The Commanders, Bengals, and Vikings will all play with backup quarterbacks this Sunday.