NFL Props for Week 5 – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday

• NFL player props for Week 5 are now available at online sports betting sites
• We have a total of seven player props to target on Sunday of Week 5
• See all the player props for Week 5 in the NFL and our best bets below

Week 5 of the NFL season continues on Sunday, October 11 with 14 games on the schedule. We are focusing on the 13 happening in the two early blocks, which still leaves us with an enormous list of player props available.

Our props went 5-2 last week, winning 2.5 units. We’re back with another seven player props we are targeting for this week. We have also gathered all the major passing, rushing, and receiving player props for Week 5 in the NFL below.

You’ll find our best bets after the table, along with the odds for each player to score the first touchdown and any touchdown in their respective game after that.

You can quickly jump to a section using the links below:

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

Week 5 NFL Player Props

Odds as of October 9

The largest passing line of Sunday (excluding SNF) belongs to Tom Brady, whose over/under is set at 308.5 when he takes on the Miami Dolphins. Texans rookie Davis Mills has the lowest passing over/under of Week 5 at 188.5.

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As per usual, Derrick Henry has the highest rushing line at 107.5, as his Titans take on the Jaguars. The highest receiving total on Sunday, again excluding SNF, is 92.5, set for Davante Adams when he takes on the Bengals.

I won’t be touching any of the extreme lines, but here are the player props I’ll be betting for Sunday of Week 5:

1) Nick Chubb Runs All Over the Chargers

• Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Line: 84.5

Nick Chub is averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game through four games this season, with his lowest rushing total being 83 yards in Week 1. Chubb’s carries per game have increased significantly, though, since quarterback Baker Mayfield showed up on the injury report in Week 3, with what we now know to be a partially torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.

In Weeks 1 and 2, Chubb received 15 and 11 carries, but has seen 22 and 21 in the last two weeks. Cleveland clearly wants to lean on its ground game even more than usual with Mayfield playing through an injury.

This bodes well for their Week 5 matchup with the Chargers, who are allowing 5.3 yards per carry, third-worst in the NFL. LA allowed 510 yards on the ground through the first three games, an average of 170 per game. Chubb us going to run all over them.

Pick: Nick Chubb over 84.5 rushing yards (-115) – 1 unit

2) Derrick Henry Goes Over on Rushing Yards

• Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Line: 107.5

The Tennessee Titans head into Week 5 with their backs against the wall. They have now been embarrassed by the Cardinals in Week 1, and were upset by the lowly Jets last week. A loss to the Jaguars would send the team into full panic mode.

Never forget the time Derrick Henry went 9️⃣9️⃣ yards against the Jaguarspic.twitter.com/VScMt15eVu

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) October 8, 2021

In order to ensure a positive outcome, I foresee Tennessee relying on their bread and butter, also read Derrick Henry. Not only will they be without Julio Jones and have a less than 100% AJ Brown, but their offensive line has struggled mightily protecting Ryan Tannehill. Their QB has been sacked 17 times this season, six of those coming in Week 1, and seven coming last week.

As a result, Henry has averaged 32 carries per game over the last three weeks, averaging 150.7 yards per game with those touches.

I’m not buying into Jacksonville’s run defense being any good based off the 3.5 yards per carry they allow, which ranks fifth in the league. They have played the Texans, who rank last in yards per carry, Bengals, who rank 21st, and were in a position of expecting run against the Cardinals and Broncos.

Pick: Derrick Henry over 107.5 rushing yards (-115) – 1 unit

3) Damien Williams Fills in Just Fine in Bears Backfield

• Damien Williams Rushing Yards Line: 59.5

In relief of David Montgomery in Week 4, Damien Williams saw eight carries and turned them into 55 yards. Williams is now set to lead the backfield with Montgomery expected to miss four to five weeks with a knee sprain.

His first start will come against a Raiders defense that is giving up 4.9 yards per carry, fourth-worst in the league, and has allowed at least 133 yards on the ground in three of four games this season.

I expect the Bears defense to keep this one close, and don’t foresee Justin Fields’ breakout game coming against a pretty good Raiders pass rush. Williams still has a lot of burst left, and will gash this Las Vegas defense for big chunks at a time.

Pick: Damien Williams over 59.5 rushing yards (-115) – 0.5 units

4) D’Andre Swift Remains a Receiving Threat

• D’Andre Swift Receiving Yards Line: 32.5

Yet again, the sportsbooks are not appreciating D’Andre Swift as a receiving threat. The Lions running back is averaging 49.8 receiving yards per game this season, with his lowest total being 33 last week in a game against some very athletic Bears linebackers.

Swift will have to deal with another set of athletic linebackers in Week 5 when Detroit heads to Minnesota. However, I foresee the Lions being forced into a negative game script early in this one. The Vikings offense had been averaging 29 points per game through the first three weeks, before stumbling against a tough Browns pass rush in Week 4.

Against a Lions team that’s allowing nearly 30 points per game, I like the Vikings offense to get back on track. This is going to result in extra looks for Swift underneath as the Minnesota defense is just worried about keeping everything in front of them.

Pick: D’Andre Swift over 32.5 receiving yards (-114) – 0.5 units

Touchdown Props for Week 5

The odds say Derrick Henry is the player most likely to score a touchdown on Sunday, with his odds being set at a very short -215. He and Dalvin Cook are given the best odds (+450) to score their respective game’s first touchdown.

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

1. Adam Thielen anytime touchdown (+115):  Thielen has found the endzone in three of four games this season, totalling four touchdowns. The Lions gave up four passing touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers in Week 2, but haven’t faced any other prolific passing attacks. (0.5 units)
2. Justin Fields anytime touchdown (+250): I already discussed the Raiders defense above, noting that they’re very weak against the run, but possess a strong pass rush. When the Bears get to the red zone on Sunday, they won’t be looking to Fields to pass. They will keep the ball on the ground. I like Fields to see a couple of those carries. (0.33 units)
3. Trey Lance anytime touchdown (+195): Lance rushed seven times for 41 yards in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo last week. But the most notable play from the game, when it comes to this prop, was the two-point conversion he ran in himself late in the fourth quarter. Kyle Shanahan will use his rookie QB’s legs in the red zone, and I expect San Francisco to get down there at least a few times. Lance is also as short as +175 at other sportsbooks. (0.33 units)

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