NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Dolphins vs Bills Saturday Night Football
- Buffalo is being backed by 75% of the spread money in the Dolphins vs Bills public betting splits ahead of Saturday night’s kickoff
- Over 43.5 is drawing 63% of all money wagered on the total
- Keep reading for a comprehensive breakdown of the Dolphins vs Bills public betting splits
The NFL has done Miami dirty. After getting flexed into the Sunday Night window last week against the Chargers, the Dolphins have to fly across the country on a short week for a Saturday night primetime tilt with the Bills.
To make matters worse, Orchard Park is currently a winter wonderland, and if there’s one thing we know about Miami it’s that they don’t perform well in the cold.
Bettors are certainly on to the Dolphins’ cold weather struggles, and they’re pounding Buffalo in the NFL public betting trends.
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Dolphins vs Bills ATS Betting Splits
The Bills are currently a 7-point favorite, after opening as the -7.5 point chalk. As of early Saturday afternoon, Buffalo is garnering 63% of the spread wagers and 75% of the ATS money. That kind of lopsided action is likely going to force online sportsbooks to react, so don’t be surprised if this line ticks up before kickoff.
Buffalo hasn’t exactly been a cover machine this season, going 6-6-1 against the spread, and just 2-3 ATS at home. That isn’t stopping at least one of our experts from backing them in the Dolphins vs Bills picks, however, his play is more of a bet against Miami.
Temperatures will feel like 18 degrees tonight in Orchard Park, with as much as a foot of snow accumulating on Saturday alone. Since 2017, the Dolphins are 0-7 outright and ATS in games in sub-40-degree temperatures. Their average margin of defeat in those contests is a stunning 20.9 points per game.
Orchard Park, NY is currently in a lake effect snow warning with up to 3 feet of snow possible in areas this weekend. 👀#FinsUp | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/GSLuyabxBI
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 16, 2022
This season, Miami is 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus teams with a winning record, and 0-3 ATS in their last three road tilts.
Josh Allen meanwhile, has been automatic under the primetime lights. He’s 12-3 straight up at night, and 11-4 against the spread.
Miami vs Buffalo Total Betting Splits
When it comes to divisional games in 2022, the under has been a profitable play. 43 of the 67 divisional matchups have fallen short of the total, while the under is 27-14-1 in outdoor divisional games this season.
Buffalo contests have been some of the most profitable to target the under in, failing to eclipse the total at a 76.9% clip.
The Bills have averaged just 22 points in their last two outings, but there should be optimism that they can hang a big total on the Dolphins. Miami is down two defensive backs in the Dolphins vs Bills injury report, and is fresh off allowing an average of 391.5 yards in their last two contests.
Josh Allen in the snow against the Dolphins #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/XStZ2ojpRJ
— Kmess ✭ (@kmess22) December 16, 2022
The Dolphins’ offense has sputtered in back-to-back weeks, and yards will be tough to come by against Buffalo’s fourth-ranked defense per DVOA. Tua Tagovailoa was abysmal last week against the Chargers, and is someone you should consider betting against according to the Dolphins vs Bills player props.
Despite recent form and trends pointing towards a low-scoring game, the public is targeting the over instead. 52% of the over/under tickets are on over 43.5, as is 63% of all money wagered on the total.
Ravens vs Browns Moneyline Splits
As far as the moneyline market goes, the betting action is all on Buffalo. 85% of the moneyline bets are backing Allen and Co., as is 84% of the handle.
The Bills are likely a popular target as the last leg of a Saturday moneyline parlay, and it’s hard to argue against that. Buffalo is 4-1 at home this season, and 20-5 straight up in Orchard Park since the start the of 2020 campaign.
The Bills are a perfect 4-0 in primetime this season, and 11-2 straight up in their last 13 games under the lights. The Dolphins meanwhile, simply aren’t built for the cold. They needed heaters on the sidelines in 55-degree weather last week in LA, conditions that will seem like a tropical paradise compared to what they’ll deal with tonight.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
