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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds, Spread for Week 15

George Nassios

by George Nassios in NFL Football

Updated Dec 16, 2022 · 12:40 PM PST

Bills quarterback Josh Allen congratulates Dawson Knox
Bills quarterback Josh Allen congratulates Dawson Knox after his touchdown catch.
  • The Miami Dolphins head north to take on the Buffalo Bills on Saturday, December 17th
  • Buffalo are 7-point favorites in the Week 15 NFL odds as they look to avenge a September loss to Miami
  • We’ve got all the Dolphins vs Bills odds below, plus our best bet and pick for this game

Revenge is a dish best served cold, but in this case, the Buffalo Bills (10-3, 6-6-1 ATS) are hoping it’s best served frozen when they host the Miami Dolphins (8-5, 6-7 ATS) in Week 15 NFL action. Game-time temperature is expected to be below freezing at 26 degrees fahrenheit.

There’s a trio of matchups for NFL fans to watch this Saturday, December 17th and it culminates with these two AFC East rivals battling it out at Highmark Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled to go at 8:15 pm in Western New York. With the weather expected to play a factor, the Bills are 7-point home favorites in the NFL odds against the Fish.

NFL Network will be broadcasting all of Saturday’s matchups including this contest from Orchard Park, New York. For more of the Dolphins vs Bills odds, plus analysis and our prediction for this game, see below.

Dolphins vs Bills Odds

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Miami Dolphins +7 (-110) O 44 (-110) +260
Buffalo Bills -7 (-110) U 44 (-110) -335

Odds as of December 16th at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code for the NFL here.

Although the Dolphins lost their last two games, is it surprising that they’re a converted touchdown underdog against the Bills in the NFL odds this week? Perhaps, but expect the weather to play a major factor. Not only is this Buffalo, but this is Buffalo in mid-December at night.

Will Bills Benefit from Cold Weather?

Anywhere you turn, the weather for this game is becoming a major story. Like Josh Allen said, nobody likes playing in cold weather, but when you’re experienced in dealing with the conditions, that’s definitely an advantage. Especially so, when your opponent plays its home games in the southernmost city in the league.

The NBC broadcast of Sunday’s Dolphins-Chargers game revealed that the Dolphins had heaters near their bench for the game at Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium. That game was played indoors, with temperatures in the mid-50s outside.

As mentioned earlier, the game-time temperature is expected to be in the 20’s on Saturday night with snow showers also a probability. The last time Miami played in Buffalo this late in the season was January 3rd, 2021 when the Bills trounced them 56-26.

Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Buffalo is 6-1 in home games in the months of December and January. Josh Allen might not love this weather, but he knows how to play in it. We’re not sure the same can be said of Tua Tagovailoa.

Dolphins Going Cold at Wrong Time

Everything was roses for the Dolphins since Tua returned from that scary injury against the Bengals. In his first game back he led Miami to a 16-10 victory over Pittsburgh and then proceeded to put up 30+ points in the next four games, all Dolphins wins.

Yet, the last two weeks have told a different story. In Week 13, the 49ers easily handled them 33-17 and last week they once again couldn’t muster up much offense in a 23-17 loss to the Chargers. They’re still a strong candidate in the AFC playoff odds, but a few weeks ago they were in first place in the division.

A loss against Buffalo on Saturday could put their playoff chances, which seemed like a lock just a few weeks ago, into serious jeopardy. Perhaps the desperation they need to play with is one of the reasons the spread has gotten smaller since the opening odds were released.

Dolphins vs Bills Recent Results

Date Away-Home Moneyline Against The Spread Over/Under
09/25/2022 BUF 19 – MIA 21 MIA MIA Under
10/31/2021 MIA 11 – BUF 26 BUF Push Under
09/19/2021 BUF 35 – MIA 0 BUF BUF Under
01/03/2021 MIA 26 – BUF 56 BUF BUF Over
09/20/2020 BUF 31 – MIA 28 BUF MIA Over

Bettors are basically split down the middle with the 7-point spread in the NFL public betting trends with 44% of the handle on the Dolphins and 49% of the public bets on the Fish.

Dolphins vs Bills Pick & Prediction

It’s unlikely we’ll get to see an air show between two of the contenders in the NFL MVP odds due to the weather conditions that might wreak some havoc on Saturday night. Tagovailoa got the edge in the searing Miami heat in September, although Allen wasn’t too shabby throwing for 400 yards in that game.

It also provided one of the viral moments from this NFL season below.

That was the Bills’ first loss of the season. Miami overtook them for first in the division a month and a half later which brought some naysayers out. We expect some revenge in this one. The last time Miami won the first matchup of the season between these two was in 2018. Buffalo responded with a 42-17 victory.

These are different teams, but Buffalo has been on a roll, winning four straight, while the Fish aren’t quite drowning, but will be treading water with a third straight loss.

Yes, we’ve detailed the weather quite a bit here. Perhaps a tad too much. However, when the weather is expected to be this bad, it plays a factor. Advantage Buffalo. Our prediction in the Dolphins vs Bills odds is for the home side to win comfortably.

  • Pick: Buffalo Bills -7 (-110), 1 Unit
  • 2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 2-8, -6.24 units



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