Ravens vs Buccaneers Betting Lines, Predictions and Picks for MNF (Oct. 21)

• The Ravens are 3.5-point road favorites over the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 7
• Baltimore and Tampa Bay entered the week ranked first and second in touchdowns
• See below for the Ravens vs Buccaneers betting lines, predictions and picks for MNF

If you like offense, then the Ravens vs Buccaneers Monday Night Football tilt tonight is must see tv. Both teams have put up ridiculous offensive numbers so far this season, and online sportsbooks expect that trend to continue. The contest features one of the highest totals on the Week 7 slate, with Baltimore earning road favorite status in the latest NFL odds.

Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

The Ravens are currently 3.5-point favorites in a game with a total of 50. Baltimore opened up at -5, but sharp money quickly bet that line down. At the current number, the betting action is completely one-sided, with the Ravens drawing 83% of the spread tickets and 71% of the handle per the NFL public betting trends.

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Total-wise, the action is just as lopsided. Over 50 points is drawing 84% of the bets and 91% of the money, which suggests this line still has room to increase.

Kickoff for Ravens vs Buccaneers in scheduled for 8:15 pm ET at Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa Bay, Florida, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Expect Offensive Fireworks

Baltimore enters play ranked first in total offense, and fourth in scoring. They’re Pro Football Focus’ highest graded offense, and Lamar Jackson is a top-three NFL MVP odds contender. Jackson, who won MVP honors last season, has benefitted greatly from the addition of Derrick Henry, who looks like he’s found the fountain of youth.

Henry has scored in every game this season, and leads the NFL in rushing. The Ravens average 39.5 more rushing yards per game than any other team, and that dominance has opened up the passing game. With defenses giving extra attention to Henry and the run, Jackson has been surgical. His 10-to-2 TD-to-INT rate is one of the best in football, while he ranks top-four in both QBR and passer rating. He’s also been phenomenal versus the NFC in his career, going 21-1 as a starter.

One of the only quarterbacks with a higher rating however, just happens to be Baker Mayfield. Last year’s comeback was clearly no fluke, as Mayfield has been torching secondaries in 2024. He’s thrown an NFL high 15 touchdowns, and rates seventh in EPA (expected points added) per drop back. If you want to poke holes in Baker’s game, you can point to his five interceptions, but that’s still fewer than Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love among others.

Ahead of MNF – Ravens coach John Harbaugh has a lot of respect for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

"The Bucs are playing at a high level… Baker Mayfield – playing at a HIGH level."#RavensFlock @FOXBaltimore pic.twitter.com/F3JlxK9SKf

— AJ Gersh (@AJGershTV) October 17, 2024

Tampa Bay hung 51 points on the Saints last week, which followed back-to-back 30 point outings versus the Falcons and Eagles. Only the Lions average more points per game, while only four teams, including the Ravens, have a higher overall offensive grade per PFF.

Both Teams Can Exploit the Other’s Weakness

If the Bucs are going to keep this game close, it will be on the strength of Mayfield’s arm. Tampa Bay leads the league in explosive pass plays this season, while Baltimore’s defense is extremely susceptible to giving up chunk plays.

No team has allowed more explosive pass plays than the Ravens. They rank 23rd in total EPA allowed on defense, and 27th in EPA allowed on opponent drop backs. Both the Commanders and Bengals hit them with a handful of explosive plays in recent weeks, and that was the difference between nail biting victories and convincing wins for Baltimore.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs grade out as the fifth worst rush defense per PFF, and they could be missing their best run defender. Vita Vea missed practice on Saturday and has been downgraded to questionable due to a hamstring injury. The 6-4, 350 pounder is Tampa’s best chance at stuffing the run. If he misses, Lamar and Henry will run all over the Bucs.

Ravens vs Buccaneers Prediction

This game actually opened with a total of 47.5, so pat yourself on the back if you were able to get the over on that number. At 50, the value on the total seems lost, which brings us to a side. Road favorites have been on fire recently, going 12-0 both straight up and against the spread over the last two weeks entering Sunday night. At some point regression is about to hit, and this game is a likely candidate for that to happen.

Ravens vs Buccaneers 2024 Offensive Stats

Yes, the Ravens can find a ton of success on offense, but the Bucs have the quarterback and the weapons to exploit them on defense. There aren’t too many 1-2 punches better than Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the receiving game, and the emergence of Bucky Irving has given Tampa Bay some juice on the ground. Expect them to hit multiple explosive plays and keep this game close.

Ravens vs Buccaneers Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM