- Teams playing on the road are an impressive 32-16-1 ATS through the first 49 games of the 2019 NFL season
- Had you bet the road team to cover in each game this year, you’d be +13.1 units, or $1,310 richer off consistent $100 bets
- See which teams take to the road when Week 4 continues on Sunday, September 29
The first 49 games of the 2019 NFL season – Weeks 1-3 + Thursday Night Football of Week 4 – have left us all wondering what happened to home field advantage.
According to our sports betting data tool, home teams have a straight up record of just 23-25-1 so far this season, and it gets even worse against the spread. Road teams have covered in 32 of 49 games, which is a 65.3% cover rate.
We actually haven’t seen a home team cover a spread since the 1pm ET block of games finished in Week 3. That’s eight straight games that have ended with the visiting team covering the spread.
We haven’t seen a home team cover a spread since the 1pm ET block of games finished in Week 3
If you had been betting the road team ATS in each game this season, you’d be +13.1 units right now. If you’re not super familiar with units, let me put that in dollars for you: based off consistent $100 bets each game, you would be up $1,310.
If you want to go a little deeper into this trend, road underdogs actually have a better cover percentage. They are 22-10-1 against the spread, which is a 66.7% cover rate. But due to the fewer opportunities to bet this season – only 33 compared to 49 with all road teams – you would only be up 10 units had you bet each road dog this year.
So what should you do with this information heading into Week 4, where nine of 15 games feature a road dog? Bet every road team? Bet all road dogs?
Absolutely not. This is a very small sample size to go from and it’s too broad of a trend to start blindly betting. After taking a look at the Week 4 NFL odds, your best bet appears to be fading this trend. Here are the only road teams I see presenting value.
Week 4 Road Teams to Bet
|Visiting Team||Home Team||Spread|
|Kansas City Chiefs||Detroit Lions||KC -6.5|
|Dallas Cowboys||New Orleans Saints||DAL -3|
|Cincinnati Bengals||Pittsburgh Steelers||PIT -3.5|
*All odds taken September 28; bold denotes a road dog
Mahomes and the Chiefs Are That Good
Most sportsbooks have closed their Chiefs vs Lions odds after seeing Matthew Stafford listed as questionable. But it’s believed he will play on Sunday.
None of that matters, though. The moment your sportsbook opens the lines in this game, jump on Kansas City.
— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2019
There’s no slowing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. They have too many weapons and Mahomes is too talented.
Prescott Will Outperform Bridgewater
The New Orleans Saints tallied 510 total yards in Week 1 with Drew Brees under center. In the last two weeks combined, with Teddy Bridgewater under center for all but two drives, they have only recorded 509 total yards.
The Saints won’t get another two touchdowns from their defense and special teams in Week 4, and it’ll come down to Bridgewater needing to outplay Day Prescott. I don’t like those odds.
Mason Rudolph Shouldn’t Be Favored
Despite getting five takeaways from their defense, Pittsburgh only managed 20 points in their loss to the 49ers in Week 3. Mason Rudolph did not look good in his first NFL start, posting an 81.4 passer rating.
And if you remove the underneath route that JuJu Smith-Schuster took 76 yards to the house, Rudolph was 13-of-26 for 98 yards – yikes!
I know the Bengals looked terrible in Week 2, but they’ve covered the spread in both of their road games this season, playing Seattle and Buffalo very tight. I’ll happily take the 3.5 points here.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.