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Saints vs Falcons Week 13 Picks, Odds & Betting Preview – New Orleans Seeking 5-1 ATS Mark on the Road

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 1:24 PM PDT

Michael Thomas running in the open field
Saints receiver Michael Thomas has gone over 100 receptions and 1,200+ yards receiving for three straight seasons. Photo from @AroundTheNFL (Twitter).
  • Saints visit Falcons in rematch of Week 10 stunning win for Atlanta
  • NFL leading receiver Michael Thomas should figure prominently in the outcome
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

It’s a rematch of one of the more stunning outcomes in the NFL this season, as the New Orleans Saints (9-2, 4-1 away) travel to Atlanta to close out the Thursday Thanksgiving slate against the Falcons (3-8, 1-4 home) – a team that destroyed almost all parlays and teasers with a stunning 26-9 win in New Orleans in Week 10.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
New Orleans Saints -310 -7 (+101) Over 49.0 (-109)
Atlanta Falcons +255 +7 (-119) Under 49.0 (-109)

Odds taken November 26

The Saints have seemed to recover from that shocker, winning two in a row, but after going 6-0 ATS from weeks 4-9, the Saints have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games. The Falcons’ mini two-game win streak was also part of three straight wins ATS, before both streaks were busted last week in a loss to the Buccaneers. How will this one play out?

Saints Battling for Home Field Playoff Advantage

It’s tough sledding at the top of the NFC playoff picture. While San Francisco leads at 10-1, the Saints and Seahawks are in hot pursuit at 9-2, while the Vikings and Packers are within range at 8-2. While New Orleans essentially has the South division wrapped up, they’re going to need to keep stacking wins for a shot at home field throughout the playoffs.

The formula should involve plenty of passing, as the Falcons rank sixth-worst in passing yards allowed at 266 yards a game. New Orleans happens to employ the current best receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas, who dusted the Panthers last week with 10 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. Thomas leads the league in receptions (104) and receiving yards (1,242) and became just the fifth player to record 100 receptions and 1,200+ yards in three consecutive seasons.

Keeping Brees upright will also help, as he was taken down six times in the last matchup. That accounts for half the sacks Brees has taken all season. Take away this game, and the Falcons have just 12 sacks on the year.

It might also help to get Alvin Kamara going. The star back has been hampered by injuries, limiting him to just nine games, but he’s yet to break 100 yards rushing or receiving in a game this year.

Falcons Going Nowhere Fast

After winning two straight, the Falcons got right back to what they have done best this year: losing, dropping a 35-22 tilt to the Bucs. It was their fourth straight loss at home, dropping them to 1-5 in Mercedez-Benz Stadium.

We’ve already listed the poor Falcons’ defense, but you’ll be surprised to see that their offense has been downright frisky.

Through 12 weeks of action, Atlanta ranks 10th in the league in total yards per game (371.4), including third in passing yards per game (298.5). Matt Ryan ranks sixth in the NFL in with 2,934 passing yards, tied for third in completions with 266 and rounds out the top-10 in touchdown passes with 18.

All that offense, but this team ranks 19th in points scored, averaging 22 points a game, while they surrender 27 a contest. The Falcons have allowed 36 sacks of their QBs this year, the sixth-most takedowns in the NFL, while they are also sixth-worst in turnover differential, clocking in at minus-8 through 12 weeks.

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What’s the Best Bet?

NFC South head-to-head tilts are danger-zone betting. Just look at this competition carousel the last three weeks: Atlanta put the boots to the both the Saints and Panthers in back-to-back weeks, then lose by double digits to the Bucs. The Saints followed that Falcons loss by doubling up the Bucs (34-17), before needing OT to dispatch of the Panthers, blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and nearly losing.

But the Saints have proven to be a good bet away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, going 4-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Falcons are just 2-3 ATS at home. I think the Saints avenge the Week 10 loss convincingly and keep their top playoff seed pursuit humming along.

The pick: Saints -7 (+101)

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