Upcoming Match-ups

Saints Favored by 6.5 vs Texans; New Orleans Was Just 3-6 ATS as Home Favorites Last Year

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Sep 9, 2019 · 7:03 AM PDT

Can Brees and the Saints cover the number against the Texans on Monday Night Football? Photo from @SportsHoustonBR (Twitter)
  • The Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints clash on Monday Night Football
  • The Saints are 6.5-point favorites in the one of highest total games of the week (52)
  • What’s the best ATS bet for HOU-NO

The Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints clash on Monday Night Football (Sep. 7 at 7:10 pm ET) in a game that’s sure to produce a lot of points.

Both teams feature elite offenses and are defending division winners, but online sportsbooks have made the Saints a full touchdown favorite.

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints Odds

Team Spread
Houston Texans +6.5 (-109)
New Orleans Saints  -6.5 (-109)

*All odds taken 09/09/19

New Orleans was 14-4 straight up last season (including playoffs), but weren’t exactly world beaters against the number.

Looking back through sports betting data from 2018 reveals that the Saints were just 10-8 against the the spread, while the Texans were considerably worse at 7-9-1. New Orleans opened as a 7-point favorite for Monday Night’s tilt but that number has moved slightly towards Houston and now sits at -6.5.

You can see the odds movement experienced at each sportsbook in our Texans vs Saints odds and stats.

Not So Super in the Dome

There’s a general belief that the Saints have a massive home field advantage playing in the SuperDome but that’s not necessarily the case. New Orleans is just 24-16 at home over the last five regular seasons, and were 3-6 ATS as home favorites in 2018.

Saints ATS as Home Favorites in 2018

Week Opponent Point Spread Result
1 Buccaneers -10 L 48-40
2 Browns -10 W 21-18
5 Redskins -5.5 W 43-19
11 Eagles -7 W 48-7
12 Falcons -11.5 W 31-17
16 Steelers -6.5 W 31-28
17 Panthers -8 L 33-14
19 Eagles -8.5 W 20-14
20 Rams -3 L 26-23

The Saints lost three of those games outright, including a Week 1 stunner to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers. They’ve lost each of their last four home openers and have just two winning seasons at the SuperDome since 2015.

Watson Won’t be Contained

Prior to the Texans’ acquisition of Laremy Tunsil, it looked like New Orlean’s pass rush would have a major advantage over Houston’s offensive line. Now that the mismatch has been mitigated, Deshaun Watson should have more time to attack downfield. The Saints allowed the 10th most completions of 20+ yards a season ago, and no quarterback (with the exception of Patrick Mahomes) likes throwing deep more than Watson.

He has elite receiving options in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and a new dynamic backfield threat in Duke Johnson. They’ll need to score early and often to keep pace with the Saints, but this offense is built for shootouts and should have no problem hanging with Drew Brees and company.

Follow the Action

The line is already moving towards Houston and could get even lower by kickoff. These two teams are both stout against the run, but weak versus the pass which should produce plenty of fireworks. New Orleans’ home field advantage is severely overblown, and they shouldn’t be laying this close to a touchdown against one of the AFC’s better teams.

Author Image