Seahawks Have Worse Odds than Bills to Make the Playoffs!?

• Only 11% of NFL teams that start 0-2 go onto make the playoffs. 
• Even though the Seahawks haven’t played a home game yet, they have the worst odds to reach the postseason. 
• Yes, they have longer odds than the Bills. Is that insanity?

Starting 0-2 is almost a death knell for NFL teams’ playoff hopes. Only 11% of teams that start 0-2 qualify for the postseason (dating back to when the current playoff format was implemented in 2002).

It’s no surprise then that all seven 0-2 teams have long odds to make the playoffs.

Odds to Make the 2018-19 Playoffs

What is a surprise is that the Seattle Seahawks have the worst odds (tied with Arizona) and are behind the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo is the Worst Team in the NFL

If there is one team you should absolutely not bet on to make the playoffs, it’s Buffalo. They wouldn’t be good value at +10,000. They’re an outlandishly bad bet at +1,000.

This team is hopeless on both sides of the ball. They rank 32nd in overall DVOA, 32nd in offensive DVOA, and 30th in defensive DVOA. Their -55 point differential is also worst in the league, even worse than Arizona (-52), a team that’s scored six points.

Making the switch from Nathan Peterman (5/18, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0.0 passer rating) to Josh Allen (24/48, 1 TD, 2 INT, 61.0 passer rating) at QB was the right move. But being a better QB than Nathan Peterman is like being a better kicker than Zane Gonzalez: it doesn’t mean you’re good. (Too soon?)

To be abundantly clear, Josh Allen is not good. Josh Allen’s offensive line is not good. Josh Allen’s receivers are not good. Running back LeSean McCoy can be good, but he’s also on the wrong side of 30, banged up, and questionable for Week 3. Shady is not saving this team from despair.

The Bills are so abhorrent that they are 17-point underdogs at Minnesota in Week 3. 17 points! Entire NFL seasons go by without 17-point spreads.

Seattle is not the Worst Team in the NFL

The Seahawks have massive issues of their own, undoubtedly. The offensive line is still a complete disaster, giving up a league-high 12 sacks in two games; top WR Doug Baldwin has yet to play because of a knee injury; and the defensive line is generating little pass rush now that Michael Bennett is in Philadelphia. Seattle’s 55.4% pressure rate is second-worst in the league, per Pro Football Focus.

Yet, despite all those woes, they have lost two road games in two tough environments by a total of 10 points (27-24 at Denver; 24-17 at Chicago). They even had a 24-20 lead on the Broncos in the 4th quarter, and they had a chance to tie the Bears late before Russell Wilson threw an uncharacteristic pick-six.

While it’s hard to call any loss encouraging, those setbacks don’t portend disaster going forward. The Broncos and Bears feature two of the best pass rushes in the league and are bad matchups for the Seahawks. Upcoming games with the Cardinals, Raiders, Lions, and Chiefs won’t present the same problems.

Seattle also didn’t have Bobby Wagner against the Bears, and he was a Defensive Player of the Year candidate last season until he got injured. He’s practicing in full and should be back in Week 3, with Baldwin not too far behind.

The Seahawks also have all eight of their home games left. While CenturyLink Field isn’t the impenetrable fortress it once was, Seattle is still 16-8 at home over the last three seasons.

Buffalo has a slightly easier schedule, but not by much. Within their divisions, both teams have to contend with one powerhouse (Patriots and Rams), one fringe playoff contender (Dolphins and 49ers), and one also-ran (Jets and Cardinals). It’s not like the Bills should get a boost because they could feasibly backdoor their way into an AFC East title.

The Seahawks’ +1,500 odds give the team just a 6.3% chance to make the playoffs. If there’s anyone that’s undervalued in the odds at the moment, it’s Seattle.