- Sportsbooks are reporting that the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills are drawing the most sharp action during Week 10 of the NFL season
- The Colts are getting 14.8% of the action from the sharps, the Bills drawing 12.6%
- Read below to see if you should bet with or against the sharps
On the surface, a wager on the Indianapolis Colts during Week 10 of the NFL season might seem to be a bad bet.
The Colts will be without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett. He suffered a knee injury in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
On the other hand, the 5-3 Colts are playing host to the pitiful 1-7 Miami Dolphins. Miami is coming off its first win of the season at the expense of the equally horrid New York Jets.
Go ahead. Try and say Dolphins and winning streak in the same sentence without bursting into uncontrollable laughter.
No wonder sportsbooks are reporting that the Colts are the most popular play with the sharps this week. The smart money is backing Indy at 14.8% of all money wagered, more than any other team.
NFL Week 10 Smart Money Bets
|Bet||Percentage of Smart Money|
|Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) over Miami Dolphins||14.8%|
|Buffalo Bills (+3) over Cleveland Browns||12.6%|
|Cincinnati Bengals (+10) over Baltimore Ravens||9.0%|
|Los Angeles Rams (-4) over Pittsburgh Steelers||8.9%|
|New Orleans Saints (-13.0) over Atlanta Falcons||8.1%|
Odds taken on Nov. 9, 2019.
The Buffalo Bills, who travel to Cleveland to face the struggling Browns, are drawing 12.6% of sharp money.
Brissett Bows Out
Brissett took a limited amount of snaps during practice this week. Colts head coach Frank Reich was optimistic that his #1 QB would be good to go right up until Friday.
At that juncture, Reich decided that Indy’s long-term AFC South Division title hopes were more vital than a game against a team they could probably beat if he opted to come out of retirement to make the start.
#MIAvsIND Injury Updates:
QB Jacoby Brissett has been downgraded to OUT.
CB Pierre Desir has been downgraded to DOUBTFUL.
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 9, 2019
Instead, it will be Brian Hoyer under center for the Colts. Hoyer replaced Brissett against the Steelers and was not the reason Indy lost. He passed for 168 yards and three touchdowns against one interception. He’s an NFL veteran at age 34 with 37 career starts and 16 victories.
This will be Hoyer’s first starting assignment since 2017 but the good news is the last time he started an NFL game, the Colts won. Hoyer made the start for the San Francisco 49ers in a 26-24 loss to Indy.
— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2019
Another alarming stat for the Colts is that kicker Adam Vinatieri, the NFL’s oldest player at 46, is finally showing his age. Vinatieri is 12-for-17 on field-goal attempts this season. That’s a career-low 70.6% success rate. He’s also missed five PATs (14-of-19).
The Colts will also be without leading receiver T.Y. Hilton (calf injury). But Indy still has running back Marlon Mack (679 yards) and the Dolphins are 31st in the NFL at stopping the run (150.8 yards per game).
-Has Luck retire 2 weeks before season begins
-Has ? kicking game that has missed 5 XPs
-Loses Hilton for a month
-Sees Brissett injured vs PIT
And has rarely missed a beat. Dude is stone cold.
— Collin McCollough (@cmccollo) November 3, 2019
Giving 10.5 points is a lot but these are the Dolphins were talking about. They’re 2-3 against the spread as a double-digit underdog this season, though. And all eight of Indy’s games have been decided by a TD or less.
Miami won’t win but Indy won’t cover.
Pick: Miami Dolphins (+10.5).
Will Bills be Paying?
Buffalo is doing what Cleveland was expected to do at the start of the season. The Bills are 6-2, nearing their first 10-win season since 1999. They are the surprise team of the AFC.
That was the mantle supposedly awaiting the Browns. But Cleveland tripped over those expectations. At 2-6, the Browns have lost four in a row. Lately, Baker Mayfield resembles a rumbled 1970s TV detective more than he does the NFL’s next great quarterback.
Baker Mayfield looks like the hard-drinking detective with the boss that’s always threatening to take away his badge pic.twitter.com/4JvbVVihKE
— Jemele Hill (@jemelehill) November 4, 2019
Heck, even washed-up child stars are mocking the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner.
— Macaulay Culkin (@IncredibleCulk) November 5, 2019
Macaulay Culkin’s Twitter response came after someone compared Mayfield’s postgame look following last week’s loss to Denver to the wet bandits who sought to invade Kevin’s house in Home Alone.
Truth be told, Mayfield’s enjoyed about as much success as those hapless criminals did.
Baker Mayfield has the lowest passer rating in the NFL when not under pressure this season per @NextGenStats. He is the only QB with more INT than TD passes when not pressured. pic.twitter.com/OuFERsVDzm
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 5, 2019
The Bills are 3-0 ATS as a road underdog this season. They’ve won four of five straight up from the Browns and three of five at Cleveland.
Buffalo is 3-0 SU on the road this season. Cleveland is 0-3 SU at home.
Pick: Buffalo Bills (+3).
Let's have fun and keep it civil.