- Rams QB Matthew Stafford is still the favorite to be named MVP of Super Bowl LVI at +125
- The Bengals Joe Burrow is second in the odds at +230 as
- See the latest odds below for who will take home Super Bowl MVP on Feb. 13th
Matthew Stafford wasn’t a favorite for much in his 12 seasons in Detroit, but in his first season in the City of Angels, he’s led the L.A. Rams to a Super Bowl. With the game in their own backyard, he’s favored to take home Super Bowl MVP honors. Standing in his way is Joe Burrow, who took the Cincinnati Bengals to the big game in just his second season.
Will either be named the game’s most valuable player when the confetti falls on Sunday? Let’s look at the latest odds.
2022 Super Bowl MVP Odds
|Matthew Stafford (Rams)||+125|
|Joe Burrow (Bengals)||+230|
|Cooper Kupp (Rams)||+550|
|Aaron Donald (Rams)||+1400|
|Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals)||+2500|
|Cam Akers (Rams)||+2700|
|Odell Beckham Jr (Rams)||+2700|
|Von Miller (Rams)||+3900|
|Joe Mixon (Bengals)||+4000|
|Tee Higgins (Bengals)||+6000|
|Jalen Ramsey (Rams)||+8000|
|Sony Michel (Rams)||+10000|
|Van Jefferson (Rams)||+10000|
|Tyler Boyd (Bengals)||+10000|
|Evan McPherson (Bengals)||+10000|
|Kendall Blanton (Rams)||+10000|
|Trey Hendrickson (Bengals)||+10000|
|Samaje Perine (Bengals)||+10000|
|CJ Uzomah (Bengals)||+15000|
Odds as of February 12th at FanDuel Sportsbook
Stafford opened at +100 and has stayed around that range at most books, giving him an implied probability of 50% of winning the honor. However, you can get him at +125 (44.44% implied odds) on FanDuel, meaning a $50 bet on Stafford would give you a return of $62.50.
Burrow is second in odds at +230 (implied odds of 30.3%). A $100 bet on Burrow would win you $230.
Aaron Donald has seen the biggest shift in MVP odds over the last week, starting at +2500, before getting bet down to +1400. Cooper Kupp (+550) and Ja’Marr Chase (+2500) round out the top five.
The latest Rams vs Bengals injury report has also impacted the odds. Tight end Tyler Higbee is off the board altogether after being ruled out for Sunday with a hamstring injury.
Stafford Still Favored Ahead of Gameday
Stafford had a shaky finish to the regular season, ultimately leading the NFL in interceptions. But ever since these playoffs began, he’s stepped up his game to a whole new level. He’s basically pulling an Eli Manning.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford has 905 passing yards this postseason.
— The Ramily Report (@RamilyReport) February 7, 2022
Throwing six touchdowns to just one interception and completing 72% of his passes, Stafford and the passing game have done the heavy lifting during this playoff run. Connecting consistently with Cooper Kupp (who has a chance to break Larry Fitzgerald’s postseason receiving yards record with a huge day on Sunday) and Odell Beckham Jr., the Rams QB is playing some of the best football of his career at the most important time.
Considering Stafford was getting the same Super Bowl MVP odds as Ryan Tannehill and Dak Prescott at the beginning of the playoffs, he’s come a long way to even odds now. Usually, betting the QB of the favored team for MVP is a way to get a slightly better payout than playing the moneyline. But the latest Rams vs Bengals odds have LA around -200 on the moneyline (a 66% implied probability of winning the game). There’s a significant jump from that to Stafford for MVP. It’s pretty great value – if you don’t believe a teammate like Kupp or Aaron Donald will swoop in and steal the glory.
Burrow Best Bet for Bengals
Cincinnati’s young, confident signal caller is getting a lot of love this week, and for good reason. The bigger the stage, the brighter Burrow shines.
Joe Burrow has now played in 8 “have to have it” games.
— Peter Burns (@PeterBurnsESPN) January 23, 2022
But while the Burrow chatter is fun, it’s worth noting that the Bengals defense is the main reason the team has made it within a game of the Lombardi Trophy. Cincy’s offense has been making plays when they need to, but they’re relying too often on Evan McPherson to put up points.
The #Bengals are 3-of-9 in the red zone in the playoffs.
An offense with as much fire power as Cincinnati has should be better than that
— Kelsey Conway (@KelseyLConway) January 30, 2022
Burrow began the playoffs with +2000 odds to win Super Bowl MVP, so getting down to +230 is pretty impressive. Narratively, there will be a desire to anoint him as the next great with a Super Bowl MVP should the Bengals pull it out. But if he puts up a similar stat line to their Divisional win in Tennessee, it’s possible Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase or someone on this defense could get the honor.
The Bengals as a whole are around +170 on the moneyline, and winning the game is an absolute must for Burrow to get MVP. (Only linebacker Chuck Howley has ever won Super Bowl MVP in a losing effort, way back in 1971.)
Playing the upset is where I’d put my money rather than on Burrow for the MVP. We’ve seen that Cincy can win games ugly, and ugly games lead to weird choices for individual awards.
Super Bowl MVP Pick
This will mark just the fifth time in the last 20 years that both quarterbacks are making their first Super Bowl start. It was a great debut for Patrick Mahomes, Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning, who all won MVP in their first big game. But prior to that, longshots Hines Ward and Dexter Jackson got the honors in a newbie QB bowl.
The star-studded Rams may have more big names on the roster, but it’s hard to see how another player on offense could win MVP over Stafford. Super Bowl MVP receivers account for over 50% of their QBs total yardage on what are typically pretty pedestrian stat lines. But it’s hard to see a world where only Kupp goes off, considering the amount of attention he draws and how well Stafford has been connecting with OBJ. (In fact a big day for Beckham is one of the biggest bets made on Super Bowl 56.)
Sideline view. Works the progression to the backside dig, practically throws it blind because he's know the timing so well and where OBJ will be when he throws it. pic.twitter.com/lRRzdCW6lW
— Rich (@richjmadrid) February 4, 2022
Stafford for MVP offers the best value here. But be wary of a potentially big day from Donald against this shaky Cincy offensive line making this race interesting.
- Pick: Matthew Stafford (+125)