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Steelers Given Better Odds to Make Playoffs Than Colts; Bills Still Favored to Get in After Week 10

Bills QB Josh Allen escaping pressure
Josh Allen and the Bills currently occupy the first Wild Card spot in the AFC. Photo by Erik Drost (Wiki Commons).
  • The Colts have +150 odds to make the playoffs after losing to Miami in Week 9
  • At 6-3. the Bills (-150) currently hold the top AFC Wild Card spot
  • The Steelers’ big win over the Rams puts them at -150 odds to make the playoffs

As the hunt for the postseason heats up, the odds to make the NFL playoffs have seen some interesting shifts. For the Colts (5-4), Steelers (5-4), and Bills (6-3), three teams currently vying for Wild Card position, the odds reflect a race where all three teams have a similar shot at making it in.

Odds to Make the 2019-20 NFL Playoffs

Team Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Miss Playoffs
New England Patriots N/A N/A
Baltimore Ravens -2000 +800
Kansas City Chiefs -900 +500
Houston Texans -600 +375
Buffalo Bills -150 +115
Pittsburgh Steelers -150 +115
Oakland Raiders +125 -165
Indianapolis Colts +150 -200

Odds taken November 13th.

Can Colts Rebound?

Before Week 10, the Colts had the sixth-best in the odds to make the AFC playoffs, but they drop two spots after an embarrassing loss at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Indianapolis is in a situation, both in the AFC South divisional battle and tight Wild Card race, where losses like Sunday absolutely can’t happen.

The biggest concern for the Colts is the quarterback position. Starter Jacoby Brissett (knee) missed Week 10, and backup Brian Hoyer put up a 38.8 passer rating against Miami on a way to a 16-12 loss. It’s apparent that the Colts desperately need Brissett back.

Reports indicate he will return on Sunday against Jacksonville, and with Indianapolis trailing Houston by a single game in the AFC South and in the middle of a Wild Card race against as many as six other AFC teams, that is great news for Frank Reich’s team.

Steelers Have Stabilized Under Rudolph

After the injury to Ben Roethlisberger, many expected this team to be also-rans. But they’ve ridden a phenomenal defense and adequate QB play from Mason Rudolph to four straight wins to get back over .500.

The Steelers defensive dominance has allowed them to reduce the pressure on Rudolph, asking him to be no more than a game manager. The quarterback is completing 64.5% of his throws, while averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt. He’s not being asked to make high-risk throws, and is instead taking what the defense gives him.

Steelers or Colts?

It’s very likely that Pittsburgh and Indianapolis will be fighting down the stretch for one of the Wild Card spots. Because of that, the debate on which team will get in is an interesting one. However, when it comes to which is the better bet, it’s undoubtedly the Colts.

They slid from sixth to eighth in the odds, but that is an overreaction to what happened on Sunday. They lost to the Dolphins, but they did so with Brian Hoyer at quarterback, and the defense only allowed 16 points. It was less a case of the Colts playing poorly, and more about who they had as a band-aid at quarterback.

Brissett will return on Sunday, and this team will get back to its winning ways.

What about Buffalo?

The reason that the aforementioned Steelers and Colts will be fighting for a Wild Card spot is mainly because of the Buffalo Bills. They share a division with New England, so the Wild Card is the ceiling. Make no mistake,m though, at 6-3, this team would be on pace to win most other divisions in the league.

Much like Pittsburgh, Buffalo also has a quarterback that they manage well. Josh Allen is still developing in his sophomore season, and the Bills have done a good job of walking the tightrope between over-protecting him and overexposing him. He throws the ball 31 times a game, which sits right in the middle of “not enough” and “too much”. His numbers still look very average across the board, but the bigger focus in on the year-to-year improvements.

With a strong defense and a good running game, the Bills success has been one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL.

Their remaining seven games include at the Dolphins in Week 11, plus home dates with the Broncos (Week 12) and Jets (Week 17). As long as they hold serve in those three, they will finish no worse than 9-7. That makes this Bills team a strong bet to play in the postseason at -150.

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