Super Bowl First Half Prediction: Expert Pick for Patriots vs Seahawks 1H Spread

• New England has trailed at halftime just once all season
• Patriots went a league-best 14-5-1 ATS in first halves
• Read below for Super Bowl first half prediction, expert picks and best bet below

Looking for Super Bowl first half picks? You don’t have to bet the full game. Sportsbooks offer first half spreads, totals, and moneylines that let you target just the opening 30 minutes. It’s a smart way to isolate the part of the game where one team has a clear edge.

The Patriots are catching 3.5 points in the first half, and it’s one of the better spots on the board. New England trailed at halftime just once all year, which makes this number hard to pass up.

Here’s my Super Bowl 60 first half prediction.

Super Bowl First Half Prediction

• Pick: Patriots +3.5 First Half (-125 at BetMGM)

My expert Super Bowl first-half prediction for Patriots vs Seahawks is New England +3.5, which I locked in on Saturday at -120. The line has shifted to -125, but I’m comfortable playing up to -130.

Including playoffs, New England has led at halftime in 17 of 20 games (85%), tying the 1984 49ers for the most halftime leads in the Super Bowl era. That dominance translated to the betting window too, as the Pats finished 14-5-1 ATS in the first half – the best mark in the league.

Seattle’s first half numbers are solid at 14-5-2, but they’ve trailed at halftime five times compared to New England’s once. The Seahawks also scored 10 or fewer first-half points in 9 of 19 games (47%), while the Patriots reached 17+ first-half points in 10 of 20 games. New England is simply more explosive early.

Why the Patriots First Half Spread Has Value

The number 3 is king in NFL betting since roughly 15% of games are decided by exactly a field goal. Getting +3.5 instead of +3 means if Seattle leads by three at the break, you still cash. That half-point of insurance is worth paying for.

I have the full game closer to Seahawks -5, so I’m in line with the market there. But Seattle winning the first half by exactly 3 is probably the most likely outcome, which is why +3.5 matters so much. I wouldn’t touch New England at +2.5.

Patriots Built to Start Fast

New England led the NFL with 16.5 first-half points per game, more than a field goal above league average and well ahead of Seattle’s 14.9. Their scripted opening drives have been money all season, and Drake Maye posted a league-best 113.5 passer rating on those early possessions.

Mike Vrabel’s aggressive approach helps too. The Patriots converted 72.41% of fourth-down attempts this season, while Seattle was the least aggressive team in the league on fourth downs. The Seahawks often punt in plus territory, which limits their ability to build large early leads even when they’re moving the ball.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Get a Bet Match Up To $250 When You Place Your First Bet!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD250BM

CODE: SBD250BM

SIGNUP PROMO

BET MATCH
UP TO $250

CLAIM OFFER

First Half Defensive Stats

Both defenses have been elite in the first half, which should keep this game close early. Seattle ranks first in first-half points allowed at 7.5 per game, with New England right behind at 9.1. But the Patriots have been more consistent — they’ve allowed 10 or fewer first-half points in 14 of 20 games (70%) this season.

The key difference is pressure. New England generates 1.5 first-half sacks per game compared to Seattle’s 0.9, and that pass rush can disrupt Sam Darnold before Seattle’s offense finds its rhythm.

Neither Team Gets Blown Out

Here’s a number that ties everything together: neither team lost a game by more than seven points all season. The Patriots’ three losses came by a combined 17 points, while Seattle’s three defeats totaled just nine points combined. Blowouts simply aren’t in the DNA of either team.

If neither side has been torched for 60 minutes all year, the first half should stay within a possession. Mike Vrabel operates as a CEO-style head coach, delegating play-calling to focus on game management and challenges.

Seattle’s Mike Macdonald calls his own defense, which can be a heavy burden on a Super Bowl sideline. That experience edge gives the Patriots a better chance of keeping things tight early.

Super Bowl Underdog Trends

The underdog trend in the Super Bowl has been borderline absurd lately. Dogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five Super Bowls, and stretching it further, underdogs are 15-7 ATS dating back to 2003. When the spread is 3 or more points, the dog has gone 9-2 ATS since 2003.

New England checks that box as a 4.5-point full-game underdog. If they’re keeping things close over 60 minutes, they’re almost certainly keeping it tight in the first 30.

Injury Watch

Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori suffered a late-week ankle injury, and if he’s less than 100%, it could throw off the Seahawks’ game plan early. On the other side, Robert Spillane trending toward playing is a boost for New England’s defense.

Patriots vs Seahawks First Half Odds

Odds as of February 8 via BetMGM. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get up to $1,500 back on your first bet.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get a $50 BetMGM Rewards Bonus & Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets!

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1550

CODE: SBD1550

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $50 BETMGM
REWARDS POINTS

+ UP TO $1,500 BACK!

BET NOW

Seattle’s -190 first half moneyline implies a 65.5% chance of leading at the break. The first half total sits at 21.5, down from 22.5 at the open, with the under getting slight juice at -105. That move tells you the market expects a slow start from both offenses.

The Patriots +3.5 first half spread is my best bet for Super Bowl 60. You’re getting a team that led at halftime in all but one game this year, plus insurance past the most common margin in football. That’s a combination I’m happy to back.

For full game analysis, check out our Super Bowl 60 computer picks and the best Super Bowl betting apps.