Super Bowl Predictions: The 2 Strongest Trends to Put Your Money Behind in Seahawks vs Patriots

The narrative machine is working overtime ahead of the Super Bowl 60 clash between the Seahawks and Patriots at Levi’s Stadium. The public is fixated on the ghosts of Super Bowl 49, Sam Darnold’s insane rollercoaster of a career so far, Klint Kubiak’s likely final game as Seattle’s OC, and Drake Maye’s quick rise to stardom.

The purpose of this article isn’t to speculate on narratives or to have fun reminiscing, though; it’s to deconstruct the matchup using actionable data and contextual trends. By analyzing specific situational splits, we can find mathematical edges hidden in the noise of Super Bowl week.

After analyzing all the data, here are the two most powerful statistical trends I found to cement my Super Bowl predictions.

1) Jaxon Smith-Njigba Eats vs Top Run Defenses

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded at least 113 receiving yards in all 4 games vs top 10 run defenses this season.

The logic makes sense here – why try to attack a team’s strength, right? Instead of trying to stubbornly run the ball against good run defenses this season, the Seahawks have just opted to attack through the air more. Seattle attempts 5.2 more passes per game when playing top 10 run defenses than they do vs non-top 10 run defenses, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the primary beneficiary of this approach.

Here’s a look at JSN’s stats from the four games they have played against top 10 run defenses this season:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Game Logs vs Top 10 Run Defenses

No receiver saw a bigger target share than JSN this regular season (35.8%), and you can see his share get as high as 48.1% when playing top 10 run defenses. He is the life of Seattle’s passing game, and in the biggest game of the year, I don’t foresee that changing.

Not only has Smith-Njigba recorded at least 113 receiving yards in each of the four games detailed above, but he is averaging 132.5 receiving yards per game in those contests, reaching as high as 162 in Week 6 against the Jaguars.

The Patriots finished the regular season ranked 5th against the run and only allowed 4.2 YPC (13th). They have been especially stingy against the run in the playoffs as well, allowing fewer than 88 yards in each of their three games.

JSN’s over/under for receiving yards is set at 93.5, and you can get the over at -110 odds on bet365. If you want to go a little higher with the line, since he goes well over 93.5 in these situations, you can get 110+ receiving yards at +162 on FanDuel.

2) Seattle Seahawks’ High-Scoring Tight Affairs

The Over has hit in 5 of the Seahawks’ last 6 games when favored by fewer than 7 points.

When oddsmakers project a competitive game for Seattle – indicated by a spread under a touchdown – the recent result is almost always a shootout. This trend highlights a specific team DNA: in expected tight contests, the Seahawks remain aggressive offensively, while their defense surrenders enough to help the total go over.

Here’s a closer look at the last six games they have played in this situation:

Seahawks’ Last 6 Games Favored by Less Than 7

To be clear, the consensus line in their Week 17 matchup with the Panthers was Seattle -7. This is why you’re not seeing that game in the table above.

What’s especially encouraging about this trend is that they’re not just barely going over the total, but crushing it. In three of the five over results, Seattle and their opponent cleared the total by at least 11 points, and went over by more than 20 points in two of them. The only under came in their Week 18 matchup with the 49ers, where neither team could get anything going offensively.

With the spread sitting at Seahawks -4.5, Super Bowl 60 falls squarely into this same situation. Sportsbooks see two good defenses in this matchup, though, and have set a modest total of 45.5, which also aligns well with Seattle’s previous six games in this situation.

You can use the tool below to get the best over odds available in your region, or can check out our Patriots vs Seahawks odds to break the game down further.