NFL Team & Player Trends for Divisional Round – Which Trends to Trust & Which to Throw Out

NFL trends, whether focused on players or teams, are great for grabbing attention with clickbaity headlines or social media posts. But they shouldn’t all be trusted. Oftentimes, trends need more context to tell the full story and provide the proper justification before you risk your hard-earned money on them.

That’s what I’m doing here today – I have rounded up the most compelling team and player trends for each of the four NFL Divisional Round matchups this weekend, and will share some extra context for each, while also letting you know whether I’m turning each trend into an NFL pick or throwing it in the trash.

NFL Trends for Bills at Broncos

Player Trend: Josh Allen has failed to exceed 35.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 7 games on the road, averaging just 27.7 rushing yards in those contests.

As you have probably guessed, Josh Allen’s rushing over/under was set at 35.5 at the time of writing this. His line opened at 38.5, showing a shift of three yards already. However, I don’t believe this specific trend is responsible for driving the line down. I believe that has come as a result of Allen nursing who knows how many injuries, as well as the Broncos defense ranking third against the run.

If you look at Allen’s last seven road games, the majority of them come against good defenses. Have a look:

I left the scores in there to give some extra context as to why Allen’s legs weren’t needed against the Panthers.

This trend is a little too obscure for me. If you want to bet the under on Allen’s rushing yards, I’m not trying to stop you. I’m just urging you not to make that pick based on this trend. I also want to add that Denver plays a ton of man-coverage, which could leave a lot of running room for Allen if he’s able to evade the pass-rush.

• Verdict: Throw it Out

Team Trend: The Denver Broncos are 13-1 (.929) straight up in their last 14 games at home as a favorite.

While this trend also includes a home/road split, I see more reason behind why this would be a legitimate trend. The Broncos hold one of the best homefield advantages in all of sports. They force their opponents to play at altitude, leading to fatigue more often/quickly since they aren’t used to it.

It has worked out incredibly well for them lately:

The one knock I will throw out there is this list of opponents is pretty weak. But you can only beat the teams in front of you, and they have been doing that as home favorites.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend

NFL Trends for 49ers vs Seahawks

Player Trend: Christian McCaffrey has failed to exceed 54.5 rushing yards in 4 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses, averaging a mere 31.5 rushing yards per game.

Even one of the league’s most dynamic offensive weapons has had his struggles against the NFL’s stingiest units. However, part of the lack of rushing production can be chalked up to the way the 49ers have used Christian McCaffrey as a receiver this season. Here’s a look at each game from this trend:

While this trend is focused on his last four games vs top 10 scoring defenses, it holds up pretty well if you extend it back a little further too. CMC barely went over this total against the Seahawks in Week 1 and the Rams in Week 5 – it’s notable that he failed to do so the second time he saw each of these teams – while going under against the Jaguars in Week 4.

Not only is the Seahawks defense he’s about to face the best in the league against the run (yards allowed per carry), but the 49ers will also be playing without George Kittle, who we know is a great asset in their run game.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend – under 54.5 comes with -110 odds at DraftKings

Team Trend: The Under has hit in each of the last 3 matchups between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.

Divisional rivalries are capable of producing some grueling games with both teams knowing each other so well – and really not liking each other as a result. That has been the case in each of the last three games between the Seahawks and 49ers. Here’s a look at the total points scored in those games:

• Week 18: 16 points (48.5 o/u)
• Week 1: 30 points (43 o/u)
• Week 11, 2024: 37 points (48.5 o/u)

These games haven’t just gone under, but well under their respective totals. It makes sense, though, as these teams rank 1st (Seahawks) and 13th in points allowed this season. Mike Macdonald and Robert Saleh are two of the best defensive minds in the NFL right now, and in spite of the 49ers having to pay without some of their defensive stars, I like this trend!

The total is again set as high as 45.5 as sportsbooks expect the offenses to come through.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend

Texans vs Patriots Notable NFL Trends

Player Trend: C.J. Stroud has thrown an interception in 6 of his last 7 games against opponents who finished with a winning record.

This pattern suggests that when Stroud is forced to push the ball down the field, he does so carelessly. Here’s a look at those seven games:

I like this trend because it correlates with CJ Stroud’s lack of accuracy with the football this season. Only 66.9% of Stroud’s passes were considered “catchable passes,” which ranks 29th in the NFL among QBs who have completed at least 60 passes this season. Add in the fact that his favorite target, Nico Collins, will also miss their Divisional Round game, along with their opponent, the Patriots, being another team who has the ability to force Stroud to push the ball, and I think this one has a really good chance of continuing.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend – over 0.5 interceptions for Stroud comes with +100 odds at bet365

Team Trend: The Texans have won their last 10 games and are a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS) on the road over their last four games.

The Texans have been red hot over the second half of the season. They needed to be after their horrendous start to the 2025 campaign. Here are their last ten games:

There are some really good wins in here – the Jaguars, Bills, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers etc – but there were some layups as well – Colts in Week 18, Raiders, Cardinals, Titans etc. So, I wouldn’t take this trend to the bank. They’re playing good football but I believe the Patriots are a much different opponent than they have played over the last ten games.

To be clear, I am not saying you shouldn’t bet the Texans. I am just saying you should not use this trend to justify the pick.

• Verdict: Throw it Out

Notable NFL Trends for Rams vs Bears

Player Trend: Kyren Williams has exceeded 73.5 rushing + receiving yards in 11 straight games against bottom 10 rushing defenses, averaging 105.2 total yards per game in those contests.

It feels like Kyren Williams has been the overlooked piece of the Rams offense, as Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and even Davante Adams get the majority of the attention. He has also been surrendering more work to Blake Corum.

What I don’t like about this trend is that the majority of the games were not played this season. As I noted above, Corum is a real factor in the Rams backfield. I actually do like this bet, but not because he has accomplished this in 11 straight games.

I like it because I believe the cold weather plus the Bears inability to stop the run is going to result in the Rams leaning on the ground game a little more than normal. (Over 73.5 rush + rec yards for Kyren Williams is listed at -110 odds at theScore Bet.)

• Verdict: Throw it Out

Team Trend:The Los Angeles Rams are 16-3 straight up as a favorite over their last 19 games.

When sportsbooks tab the Rams as the favorite, they deliver with ruthless efficiency. Here’s a look at these 19 games:

However, I don’t love that this trend spans across multiple seasons, as things are so different year-to-year, and they are just 4-2 in their last six games when favored.

The Rams also face a pretty unique situation thus weekend in Chicago with expected frigid temperatures, and potential snowfall, which could dramatically shift game plans and execution of that plan. So, similar to the previous team trend, I am not saying don’t bet the Rams to win. I am just saying justify the pick with something better than this.

• Verdict: Throw it Out