Texans Given Even Odds to Win AFC South, Colts Listed at +185 After Week 3

• The Houston Texans could be 3-0 had they now blown a late lead in New Orleans in Week 1
• The Indianapolis Colts are 2-1 with their sole loss being an overtime shortcoming against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1
• Jacoby Brissett completed his first 16 passes in Week 3 and is improving by the week

The Houston Texans have had a number of close calls to start the season. However, at the end of the day, they’re 2-1 and have even-money odds to win the AFC South. Are the Texans worth a bet here or are they merely lucky to be 2-1 at this point? Let’s take a closer look at their NFL divisional odds and their chances to win the South.

2019 Odds to Win AFC South

*Odds taken 09/23/19

How Good Are the Texans?

It’s hard to gauge how good the Texans are for a number of reasons. If Jacksonville converts their two-point conversion at the end of Week 2 and if the Los Angeles Chargers play a bit better in Week 3, the Texans are probably 0-3. However, one can also make the case they should be 3-0 after somehow losing in New Orleans in Week 1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGEA8q1gJ2E

This team has an elite offense with an offensive line that appears to be improving by the week. Quarterback Deshaun Watson was sacked just twice last week – a big improvement – and he has a ton of weapons to work with. On the other hand, the defense is clearly weaker from last season.

It would appear that Watson is the best player in the division and if they can protect him, this team will be in the running for the division crown.

Colts Have Impressed

There’s no denying that after three weeks of action, the Indianapolis Colts have impressed. The Colts were +210 to win the division after their Week 1, overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. However, they’ve won two in a row and are up to +185.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett is getting better by the week as he’s coming off a game where he went 28-of-37 for 310 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He’s thrown seven touchdowns with just one interception this season and has a 71.7% completion percentage, which is just 0.2% worse than Patrick Mahomes.

The Colts also have one of the best ground games in the league as Marlon Mack is third in the NFL in rushing yards (299). The concern with this team right now is injuries. Safety Malik Hooker is out for the next four-to-six weeks and T.Y. Hilton left Sunday’s game after re-aggravating his quad injury.

However, the schedule is quite forgiving in the next month. While they have to go to Kansas City, they’ll also host Oakland, Houston (after a bye) and Denver. After that, they’ll visit Pittsburgh, then host Miami and Jacksonville. There should be about four wins in there.

What’s the Best Bet?

This should be the Texans division to lose but I actually like the Colts at +185 as a bit of a flier. The Texans have more upside but the Colts are steadier. They have the better offensive line, the better running game and maybe even the better defense. Over the course of the season, that’s going to matter.

It’s early but given how Brissett has played, I’ll give the Colts the slight edge here and lay the +185.