- The shock decision by Andrew Luck to retire from the NFL on Saturday has dramatically altered the betting landscape in the AFC South
- The Houston Texans are listed as +175 favorites to win the division
- Luck’s Indianapolis Colts dropped from the +100 chalk to +450 longshots
The moment Andrew Luck opted to walk away from football, luck ran out for the Indianapolis Colts and smiled on the Houston Texans.
When Colts quarterback Luck stunned the NFL by announcing his retirement Saturday, the Texans moved into favored status to win the AFC South in the 2019 NFL Divisional Odds.
The Texans are now pegged as the +175 chalk to earn the division title.
2019 AFC South Odds
|Team||Odds post-Luck announcement)||Odds (pre-Luck announcement)|
*Odds taken on 08/25/19.
The Colts plummeted from +100 favorites to the +450 longshots in the four-team division.
Luck’s Unlucky Fate
Luck, 29, the 2018 NFL Comeback Player of the Year and a four-time Pro Bowl selection, cited the continuous cycle of injury-pain-rehab for sapping his desire to play the game.
|+100||AFC South Title Odds||+450|
|+800||AFC Championship Odds||+2500|
|+1600||Super Bowl Odds||+5000|
|-170||To Make The Playoffs (Yes)||+400|
He missed the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury and was out with a calf strain.
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) August 25, 2019
Selected first overall by the Colts in the 2012 NFL Draft, Luck has endured a sprained shoulder, lacerated kidney, partially torn abdominal muscle, torn rib cartilage, and the shoulder surgery that cost him the entire 2017 campaign.
Physical toll on Andrew Luck through 6 NFL seasons:
» Torn cartilage in 2 ribs
» partially torn abdomen
» a lacerated kidney that left him peeing blood
» at least 1 concussion
» a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder
» and this mysterious calf/ankle issue that led to this
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) August 25, 2019
Jacoby Brissett, 5-12 in his career as an NFL starter, takes over under center for the Colts.
Everything’s Bigger for Texans
Houston are defending AFC South champions. The Texans went 11-5 but lost an AFC Wild Card playoff game to the 10-6 Colts.
— Alec Rhodes (@AlecWRhodes) August 25, 2019
All is not glorious for the Texans. They lost running back Lamar Miller to a suspected torn ACL in Saturday’s preseason loss to the Dallas Cowboys. That likely leaves Duke Johnson, recently acquired from Cleveland, as Houston’s go-to running back.
While the Luck retirement may be a instant boon for Houston’s division title chances, it should also be a cautionary tale for the Texans. They’ve allowed their QB DeShaun Watson to take a horrible beating over his first two NFL seasons.
Cowboys DE Taco Charlton sacks Deshaun Watson and forces a fumble pic.twitter.com/TYfJ4jLJoX
— Main Team (@MainTeamSports) August 24, 2019
Watson was sacked an NFL-high 62 times last season. He was lost after seven games during his rookie season due to a knee injury suffered during practice.
Titans Struggle with Luck
No AFC South team is happier to see Indy’s Luck run out than the Tennessee Titans. Luck was 11-0 against them in his career.
Colts-Titans week 8, 2012: Andrew Luck's first career win vs Tennessee. Once again he lead another 4th quarter comeback + the game winning drive!
Luck finished his career with a perfect 11-0 record vs the Titans! pic.twitter.com/I1AXw7rDmE
— Four Verts ? (@FourVerticals_) August 25, 2019
Tennessee is 2-15 in its last 17 against Indy. Both wins came in 2017 when Luck was out for the season and Brissett was at the helm of the Colts. Luck is the only QB to go 11-0 against a team to start his career since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
The Titans haven’t won the AFC South title since 2008. They’ve gone 9-7 in each of the past three seasons.
We all know what’s coming now though… pic.twitter.com/dPhGQPI0GK
— Taylor Lewan (@TaylorLewan77) August 25, 2019
Tennessee has its own issues. Three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan is suspended for the first four games of the season after testing positive for a banned substance.
Don’t Sleep on the Jags
In the rush to anoint the Texans, it’s easy to forget that the Jacksonville Jaguars carried a fourth-quarter lead into the 2017 AFC Championship Game before falling to the New England Patriots. And that Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, who slayed the Pats in the big game two years ago, is now the Jags’ QB.
— ??Long Live Rock N’ Roll ?? (@AussieJag) August 25, 2019
Yes, Jacksonville was 5-11 last season. The Jaguars also had the fifth-ranked defense in the NFL.
With Foles taking snaps and a healthy Leonard Fournette in the backfield, Jacksonville is dangerous.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+225)