Texans’ Super Bowl Odds Improve to +2500 After Comeback Win in Wild Card Round
- With Saturday night’s win over Buffalo, the Houston Texans have vaulted to +2500 in the Super Bowl odds
- Texans face a massive challenge in next week’s clash with the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs
- Read our analysis to see if the Texans are worthy of a Super Bowl wager right now
The Houston Texans overcame a 16-0 deficit to claim a narrow 22-19 overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills during Wild Card Weekend action on Saturday night. With the win, the Texans have seen their Super Bowl 54 odds improve dramatically, vaulting to +2500.
While Houston entered Saturday’s matchup as 2.5-point home favorites, they lagged badly in the NFL futures going into this year’s NFL playoffs, sporting lengthy +3833 Super Bowl odds. Indeed, the Texans continue to sit well back of the favorites in Super Bowl odds, where they are pegged at +2800.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 54
|San Francisco 49ers||+375|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+400|
|New Orleans Saints||+550|
|Green Bay Packers||+850|
*Odds taken on January 5, 2020
Slow Start Cause for Concern
Following Saturday’s slow start, there is plenty of reason for concern. The Texans’ offense struggled to get anything going in the first half, with quarterback Deshaun Watson tossing for just 49 yards. Watson received little help from the Houston offensive line, which allowed him to get sacked on four occasions before halftime.
Bill O’Brien vs. the Bills, the good:
– Texans played their ass off for him
– good offensive play-calling, at times
– good work with Deshaun Watson
– good halftime adjustments
– slow start in a huge game
– questionable game management
– questionable decision making
— Matt Hammond (@MattHammondShow) January 5, 2020
The Texans’ second-half comeback was truly impressive. Houston needed just three possessions to erase their deficit and take a 19-16 lead, while the Bills offense stalled after opening the game with a scoring drive, settling for field goals the rest of the way. However, the Texans are unlikely to be provided with such a forgiving opportunity next weekend, when they travel to Kansas City for a Divisional Playoffs matchup with the Chiefs. They open as early 8.5-point underdogs.
Keeping Pace with Chiefs a Massive Challenge
Houston earned a stunning 31-24 win in Kansas City back in Week 6, but will be facing a very different Chiefs squad this time around. With quarterback Patrick Mahomes fully recovered from the rash of injuries that plagued him earlier this season, including an ankle injury that hobbled him in the loss to the Texans, the well-rested Chiefs have been dominant on both sides of the ball during a season-ending six-game win streak.
Patrick Mahomes 2019 season:
4,031 yards, 26 TDs, 5 INTs
Those are impressive numbers considering he missed almost three full games with a knee injury and played the first half of the season on a bad ankle. #ChiefsKingdom
— Tyler Zupan (@tzupes) December 30, 2019
Kansas City has surrendered just 11.5 points per game over their past six outings, and have kept opposing teams out of the end zone in two of their past three games. And unlike the Bills, who built their success this season on a ferocious defense but largely struggled with the ball, the Chiefs have continued to score at a steady pace during their 6-0 run, averaging just under 28 points per game.
Road to Super Bowl Goes Through Baltimore
Even if the Texans manage to make it two in a row against the Chiefs (for the first time since 2010), and avenge their crushing 30-0 loss to Kansas City on Wild Card Weekend four years ago, the road to the Super Bowl this season still goes through Baltimore, which enters its Divisional Playoff matchup with Tennessee riding a 12-game win streak and perched as lofty +190 Super Bowl favorites.
The last team the Ravens want to face in the AFC Championship (if they are fortunate to make it that far) is the Kansas City Chiefs.
1. Patrick Mahomes has carved up the Ravens defense in the past.
2. Chiefs Defense improved
3. Lamar Jackson 0-2 vs Chiefs
4. Terrell Suggs
— KC Football Guy (@KC_Football_Guy) December 31, 2019
Indeed, with the Chiefs playing their best football of the season, and sporting attractive +400 Super Bowl odds, they have emerged as likely the greatest threat to the Ravens. Kansas City knocked off the Ravens by a 33-28 score in Week 3, with Mahomes outduelling Baltimore pivot and NFL MVP favorite Lamar Jackson in a contest that featured 955 yards of total offense.
While Deshaun Watson’s performance in Saturday night’s contest was impressive, and the return of JJ Watt from injury provided the defense with a big lift, it is tough seeing this injury-battered Texans squad keeping pace with the higher-octane opponents they must face on the road to the Super Bowl.