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Texans vs Chiefs Spread Down from 8.5 to 4 – Picks & Betting Preview

Deshaun Watson rolling out to pass
Oddsmakers have moved the line on Sunday's Kansas City Chiefs-Houston Texans game from Chiefs -8.5 to Chiefs -4. Is KC the play at these odds? Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire.
  • The line on Sunday’s Kansas City Chiefs-Houston Texans game opened at KC -8.5
  • It’s dropped to Chiefs -4
  • Read below to find out which team offers the better price at this point

When the Kansas City Chiefs lost their first regular-season game a year ago, they rebounded with a stout effort in a 37-21 road victory over the Cleveland Browns.

The last time the Chiefs faced the Houston Texans, they posted a solid 42-34 triumph. They easily covered the two-point spread as road favorites.

This time around, there seems to be serious Chiefs doubt among the betting public. They are coming off their first loss of the 2019 NFL season, a 19-13 home-field setback handed them by the Indianapolis Colts.

Facing another AFC South opponent in the Texans, Kansas City opened as an 8.5-point home favorite. Today, online betting sites show that line down to Chiefs -4 in the Texans vs Chiefs odds & stats.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Houston Texans +175 -4 (-110) Over 55.5 (-107)
Kansas City Chiefs -205 -4 (-110) Under 55.5 (-113)

Odds taken 10/12/19.

In its last six games as a home favorite of four points or less, Kansas City is 2-4 both straight up and against the spread.

Texans’ Offense Bad News for Chiefs

No matter how you slice up the Kansas City defense, it comes out bleeding profusely. Overall, the unit ranks 25th in the NFL (393 yards per games), 13th at defending the pass (237.2) and 30th against the run (155.8 ypg). The only NFL teams worse at stopping the run – the Miami Dolphins  and Cincinnati Bengals  – are a combined 0-9 this season.

Amazingly, they are just 14th in the league at surrendering points (22.6 per game), and only a shade worse than the Texans (22.0).

Houston can come at KC through the air. DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills have combined to catch 13 balls of 20+ yards and six touchdowns. Stills (hamstring/ankle) missed last week’s game and is a game-time decision this week, though.

The Texans can grind it out on the ground. Both Duke Johnson (6.4 yards per carry) and ex-Chief Carlos Hyde (4.3 ypc) are solid options. Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield.

Mahomes vs Watson

Neither Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (10th overall) or Houston’s Deshaun Watson (12th overall) were the first quarterback taken in the 2017 NFL Draft. That honor went to Mitchell Trubisky, taken #2 by the Chicago Bears.

No football fan today would be salivating at thought of either of these two going head-to-head with Trubisky. But the first meeting of Mahomes and Watson figures to be epic.

Last week was the first time that a Mahomes-led Chiefs team failed to score 26 points in a game. In fact, it was just the fourth time they’ve scored less than 28 points. The Chiefs tallied 27 points twice and 26 once with Mahomes under center.

Last week’s failure was KC’s first time finishing with less than 20 points since November 26th, 2017, when they lost 16-10 to the Buffalo Bills with Alex Smith at QB.

Watson faced KC that season. Although the Texans lost the game, he torched the KC defense for 261 yards and five TDs.

Expect a KC Bounceback

Mahomes has tossed just one TD pass the past two weeks, but he’s gone over 300 yards through the air in both games. The TD passes will come again soon.

Speculation is KC will get wideout Tyreek Hill (shoulder) back this week but fellow wide receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is questionable.

The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS at home when coming off a loss as a home favorite. Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

KC at -8.5 was a bad bet. The Chiefs at -4 is a winning wager.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-110).

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