- The Tennessee Titans opened at +5000 but their Super Bowl 54 odds have gotten worse since then
- It’s not like the Titans haven’t made improvements this NFL offseason either
- Is there any value in jumping on them with average odds around +6400?
This offseason, the Tenessee Titans have not dramatically changed from the team that went 9-7 in 2018 and missed the playoffs by a game. Yet somehow, their Super Bowl odds have greatly shifted since odds for the 2019 season were first posted.
Once an average of +5000, the Titans are now getting around +6400 odds to win Super Bowl 54.
Super Bowl 54 Odds
|Team||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+750||+700|
|New England Patriots||+800||+700|
|New Orleans Saints||+800||+900|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1000||+1000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+1600||+1600|
|Green Bay Packers||+2200||+1800|
*Odds taken 04/02/19
Is there any reason to jump on this team now?
Are the Titans Done Being “A Team to Watch?”
No franchise has appeared on more”NFL Teams that could make the leap” lists over the past three years than the Tennessee Titans. Yet despite the once enticing promise of a young Marcus Mariota and a loaded backfield, all the Titans have done over the past three years is churn out identically forgettable 9-7 years.
Titans Last 3 Seasons
|Year||Points For (League Rank)||Points Against (League Rank)||Record|
|2016||23.8 (14th)||23.6 (16th)||9-7|
|2017||20.9 (19th)||22.3 (17th)||9-7|
|2018||19.4 (27th)||18.9 (3rd)||9-7|
They also had one of the luckiest playoff upsets ever, beating the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round in 2017. But their Divisional Round loss to the New England Patriots showed how far this team still was from Super Bowl contention.
Heading into this offseason, the Titans seem even farther away. The strength of last year’s team was a defense that allowed the third fewest points per game in the league. But looking back, it’s unclear why this defense was effective. Tennessee ranked 18th in Defensive DVOA, they only generated 17 takeaways, and they didn’t have much of a pass rush.
Being able to pressure the QB without blitzing is huge for a defense.
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) January 3, 2019
Right now, the Titans edge rushers for next year are led by unproven second year Harold Landry and 37-year-old Cameron Wake, so expecting a marked improvement in this area would be… not bright.
Can the Offense Pick Up the Slack?
Preparing for his fifth season under his fourth different offensive coordinator, Mariota has yet to take the next step. There will be extra pressure on the former second overall pick to perform this season, considering he’s playing for a new contract. Also, he’ll definitely get hurt at some point. Luckily…
Smart of Titans to trade for Ryan Tannehill to back up Marcus Mariota. Tannehill is literally the only quarterback who has been injured more often the past several years than Mariota.
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) March 15, 2019
With Tannehill and Mariota, the Titans have the perfect combination of quarterbacks to continue their 9-7 streak. But given the lack of playmakers in Tennessee’s wide receiver corps, a mediocre season figures to be their ceiling.
Why Their Odds are Tanking
It’s s much easier to get excited about the rest of the AFC South, as these teams look poised to take bigger strides forward. The Colts are among the Super Bowl favorites, the Texans have a roster loaded with talent, and the Jaguars have enlisted a Lululemon model to fix their longstanding quarterback issues.
Anyone else feel the tension in the air or is that just me? This isn’t that news. But it’s big news. I’m @lululemonmen’s new elite ambassador. Like me, they’re all about community, mindfulness and #thesweatlife. Excited for what’s ahead. Stay tuned for that other announcement. pic.twitter.com/XYUT0xDMNf
— Nick Foles (@NickFoles) March 11, 2019
The Titans appear to be the worst team in this division and it’s far from one of the league’s best to begin with. It makes sense that they have odds on par with teams like Detroit and Tampa Bay.
Falcons a Better Long Shot
Their odds are only about half as good as Tennessee’s but you can actually envision this team in a Super Bowl, because they were just in one three years ago. There is a lot of value in the Atlanta Falcons at +3300.
Their defense will be much improved with Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen and of Deion Jones all back for a full season (they’ll likely spend the 14th overall pick on that side of the ball as well). Steve Sarkisian is also gone, so Atlanta’s red zone offense may stand a chance this year as well.
— The Ringer (@ringer) November 23, 2018
Let's have fun and keep it civil.