- Week 6 starts off with Eagles vs Giants on Thursday Night Football.
- Is this the week to bet on a DST touchdown?
- Below, find the three prop bets we are playing in tonight’s TNF game.
Thursday Night Football features a classic NFC East rivalry as the New York Giants (1-4, 0-2 home) host the Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, 0-2 away) at MetLife Stadium (8:20 PM ET, Oct. 11th).
The Eagles have won three in a row in the series, but are suffering from a Super Bowl hangover of sorts, losing two straight and failing to score more than 23 points in any game this season.
The good news for Carson Wentz and company is that the one-win Giants haver surrendered 33 points in back to back games.
Will Philadelphia get back to its Super Bowl form in Week 6? Follow the link for a full Eagles vs Giants game preview. Keep scrolling for an analysis of the game within the game as we breakdown the three best prop bets for tonight’s tilt.
Prop #1: No Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns
|Will there be a defensive/special teams TD in the game?||Odds at BetOnline|
I’ve hit on this prop in three straight weeks. I’m riding the hot hand, going back to the well, and keeping the gravy train going. But that’s not just blind faith. There’s reason to back the “NO” side in this particular matchup.
The Eagles rank 18th in punt return average (6.8 yards per return) while the Giants are second-last (3.5 yards per return). Neither has a return touchdown since 2016. Philadelphia’s primary return man — Corey Clement — doesn’t really have breakaway speed, and neither does auxiliary returner Darren Sproles at this point in his career.
The Giants are splitting return duties between Odell Beckham Jr and Kaelin Clay. OBJ has never returned a punt for a TD in 37 career tries. Clay has two touchdowns in 47 returns, which is somewhat concerning, but he’ll also be facing an Eagles special teams that’s well above average in Punting DVOA and hasn’t given up a punt-return touchdown in 35 straight regular-season games.
The defenses are the bigger threat to score.
New York and Philadelphia have combined for three defensive touchdowns this year, and the Eagles had a whopping six defensive TDs in 2017. However, most of those came from fumble recoveries, which is one of the least sustainable statistics around. The Eagles don’t have the same pass rush as last year, sitting 16th in sacks (12.0) this season.
That’s still markedly better than what the Giants are bringing to the table, though, with a paltry six sacks on the year (tied for last in the league).
Prop #2: At Least One Successful 2-Point Conversion
|Will there be a successful 2-point conversion?||Odds at BetOnline|
Unlike forcing fumbles, going for two is something that is fully within a team’s control. The Eagles are one of the most aggressive teams in the league in terms of going for two. They led the NFL with six successful 2-point conversions in 2017. They have another two already this season, as do the Giants.
The +340 odds on the “Yes” side carry a 21.7% implied probability, even though the Eagles and Giants have 11 successful two-point conversions between them in their last 21 games. I like that math.
Prop #3: Giants to Score the Longest TD
|Which team will score the longest TD?||Odds at BetOnline|
It’s no secret that Odell Beckham is not happy with the Giants’ conservative approach on offense these days.
— Deadspin (@Deadspin) October 7, 2018
Eli’s arm isn’t what it used to be, but we have already seen signs that the G-Men are at least going to try stretching the field, whether it’s Manning or Beckham doing the throwing …
Oh also, Saquon Barkley has TDs of 68 and 57 yards already. He and OBJ are the two most dangerous players in this game when it comes to YAC.
The Eagles’ only have six TDs total through five games and only one longer than 20 yards. In a game that’s going to be a pick’em at kickoff, there’s no reason for the Giants to be at plus-money in this prop.