Best Thursday Night Football Props for Week 9 Raiders vs 49ers

• NFL Week 9 starts tomorrow with Raiders vs 49ers on Thursday Night Football. 
• CJ Beathard’s status is in doubt, meaning Nick Mullens may make his first NFL start for San Francisco.
• Learn the three best prop bets to play in light of the injury issues. 

Week 9 starts on Thursday with the Oakland Raiders (1-7, 0-3 away) travelling across the Bay Bridge to face the San Francisco 49ers (1-7, 1-2 home) at Levi’s Stadium (8:20 PM ET). For the full list of odds and score prediction, check out our Raiders vs 49ers game preview.

With the status of 49ers QB CJ Beathard in doubt (wrist; game-time decision), picking out the three best prop bets becomes more difficult, but not impossible.

Before diving into the game-within-the-game, some retrospection: last week’s picks hit on Miami to kick the longest field goal (+240) but missed on the other two, leaving me at +$40 for the week, but still -$9.30 for the year. At least I’m trending in the right direction, with a +$240.00 ROI over the last two weeks.

Another positive week and the ledger should be in the black for the season. On that note …

Prop #1: No Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns

Neither team has a return TD this season and neither had one in 2017, either. While both teams have one defensive TD this year, they aren’t creating many opportunities to score.

The Oakland defense can’t generate any sort of pass rush and has generated just six takeaways on the year (T28th). The San Francisco defense is the only one that’s even worse at creating turnovers, with just five takeaways (32nd).

Just to give you an idea as to how bad the Raiders' pass rush is:

32nd – Raiders – 56 pressures

31st – Lions – 100 pressures https://t.co/VIUDV7w2FL

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) October 29, 2018

Another reason I love the “NO” side is that the 49ers are likely to go run-heavy, whether Nick Mullens or CJ Beathard starts.

Mullens would be making his first career start, so Kyle Shanahan obviously wouldn’t want to put too much pressure on him, especially on a short week. If Beathard is in there, the Niners will go run-heavy to protect their banged-up QB. Running the ball decreases the opportunities for pick-sixes and also shortens the game.

Prop #2: Oakland Raiders Under 2.5 Sacks

The Oakland Raiders are dead-last in the NFL in sacks with just seven through six games and they are ranked 31st in pass rushing by Pro Football Focus. Khalil Mack was the only pass rush this team had in 2017, and he plays for Chicago now.

Their team leader in sacks is Bruce Irvin (3), who “tweaked his shoulder” in Week 8 versus Indianapolis and is listed as questionable for Thursday.

Gruden said pass-rusher Bruce Irvin only played ~30% defensive snaps yesterday because of a shoulder injury and Colts' effectiveness running the ball.

"I think that combination has a lot to do with his numbers being down."

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) October 29, 2018

The Raiders had zero sacks in that game. They had one the week prior against Seattle, one in Week 6 against the Chargers, and two in Week 5 against Cleveland, which has surrendered a league-high 33 on the season.

The 49ers aren’t far behind Cleveland, giving up 31 sacks this year. But, as mentioned above, the 49ers are likely to run the ball a lot on Thursday because they’ll either be starting (a) completely untested rookie Nick Mullens or (b) an injured CJ Beathard. Beathard’s injury is to the wrist on his throwing hand. They won’t put him in there if he can’t throw, but they also won’t ask him to do more than he needs .

That will decrease his opportunities to stand in the pocket and take huge shots from opposing edge rushers, which he is wont to do.

Prop #3: Oakland Raiders to Score the Longest TD

The Raiders don’t have a lot of deep threats in their offense, outside of lightly used Martavis Bryant (14 catches, 220 yards, 15.7 YPC). Only one player — 33-year-old Jordy Nelson — has a catch over 50 yards this season. The 49ers, on the other hand, have three players with at least one catch of 50-plus yards: TE George Kittle (82 yards), WR Marquise Goodwin (67 yards), and fullback Kyle Juszczyk (56 yards).

But this prop continues a trend of fading the 49ers’ passing game, or rather, banking on San Francisco playing it safe. Even with Beathard (and Jimmy Garoppolo) under center, they had a 258/222 pass/run split. That’s a lot more balanced than Oakland, which has been a pass-first team all season (261 pass attempts, 162 rush attempts).

Matt Breida could always bust a 50-yard run against this awful Oakland rush defense, but getting +140 on the Raiders to score the longest TD is solid value, given that a 12-yard pass just might do the trick.