Updated Odds to Win AFC South After Colts & Texans Upset in Week 4

• The AFC South is a Complete Logjam
• Ever Since Andrew Luck’s Retirement, The Texans Have Been The Favorite
• There Are No Bad Bets Here, But The Colts Are In Prime Position

Th 2019 NFL season, like many of those in recent memory, has been defined by parity, thus far.

After Dallas’ loss to New Orleans on Sunday night, there are only three undefeated teams remaining in the NFL, while seven remain winless. The other 22 teams are a jumbled mix of something in between mediocrity and formidability.

There is no division that exemplifies this dynamic more than the AFC South. After the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts both lost as sizable favorites in Week 4, and the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars recorded upset victories, all four teams sit deadlocked at 2-2.

While the oddsmakers still don’t see this as an even race, the odds have narrowed considerably over the last seven days.

2019 AFC South Odds

Houston Texans Are Still the Favorites

Since Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement, the Texans have been the favorites to win the AFC South. Last week’s NFL divisional odds showed the Texans as the divisional favorite at +100, while Colts were a close second at +185. The Titans and Jaguars lagged behind at +700.

After this past weekend’s results, the Texans remain the favorite, but all four teams are now between +140 and +375.

The AFC South is something else. pic.twitter.com/4c67UHxyt6

— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) September 30, 2019

The Texans remain favorites, in large part, because they unquestionably have the most talented QB in the division (no offense to Gardner Minshew and his mustache). Along with stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins and three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, third-year QB DeShaun Watson has most pundits believing the Texans are the class of the South.

Colts Are Contenders (When Healthy)

The Colts have been a popular sleeper buoyed by the strong play of surprise starter Jacoby Brissett. The Colts’ odds have dropped to +280 after losing to the Raiders as six-point chalk. But note that the team was without its best skill position player – T.Y. Hilton – along with All Pro linebacker Darius Leonard and safety Malik Hooker.

Not saying anything you don't know, but Colts really, really, really missed TY Hilton, Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker today. Hilton is flat-out irreplaceable.

— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) September 29, 2019

They also lost Marlon Mack, their emerging star in the backfield, early in the second quarter.

When healthy, there is little discernible difference between Indianapolis and the favored Texans

Jaguars and Titans Rebound

The biggest line movers after Sunday’s action were of course the Jaguars and Titans, who suddenly became relevant again. They both climbed into the 2-2 division logjam and both increased their odds to win the AFC South to +375.

The Titans are likely the stronger of the two, based on experience at quarterback and coming off of a competitive season last year.

While I still slightly favor the Texans to win the AFC South because of the high-end talent at the top of their depth chart, I consider the Colts to be the best value bet at the moment.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+280)