NFL Upset Picks for Week 15

• Can Drew Lock and the Broncos keep rolling against the seemingly unstoppable Buffalo Bills?
• Will the New England Patriots deal a huge blow to the Miami Dolphins’ playoff chances?
• Last week’s picks went 1-1, adding 0.75 units to our yearly total, which sits at +10.96

The end of the season is always a dangerous time for me as a bettor. Knowing that our loaded Sunday afternoons are soon going away, there was a lot of questionable plays among the NFL’s Week 15 odds that I was tempted to make.

Freddie Kitchens upsetting his old team? Maybe! Dwayne Haskins outdueling Russell Wilson? It could happen! The Jaguars toppling the Ravens? They haven’t won in 13 weeks, they’re due!

Once the playoffs get here, we lose so much of the randomness and havoc that the league’s lesser can provide on a weekly basis. But I’m not going to lose my head in this spot. We’re going to continue last week’s boring, but winning,  strategy of playing just two teams.

NFL Week 15 Upset Picks

Odds taken Dec. 18 from DraftKings and FanDuel

Broncos Handle the Bills

After a huge win over the Steelers on Sunday night, Buffalo firmly established themselves as the number one challenger to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC. This pick is not a rejection of the Bills as a bonafide contender, but rather an acknowledgement that this is a perfect trap game scenario.

Coming off a huge win, playing on the road a short week, with a Monday Night trip to New England on the horizon and the AFC East title all but wrapped up: I would be wary of laying the five points Buffalo is getting in Denver on Saturday afternoon.

Vic Fangio says LT Garett Bolles and TE Noah Fant will be good to go for this week. He says both of his running backs, Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay, who are both dealing with minor injuries, should ready by the end of the week as well.

— Nick Kosmider (@NickKosmider) December 16, 2020

If the only time you paid attention to the Broncos over the last month was the Kendall Hinton game, then you’ve been missing out on a great spoiler bet. Denver has covered the last three games they had an actual quarterback under center.

All told, the Broncos are 8-5 ATS as an underdog. That’s right, Denver hasn’t been favored once this year! (They were even underdogs to the Jets, after being forced to start Brett Rypien on a short week). This is a spot they are very used to. They’re also 3-0 against the AFC East this year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had the chance to tie the game for the #Dolphins, coming off the bench. But instead, INT by one of the more underrated players in the league. Justin Simmons saves the game.#Broncos with a big upset of the #Dolphins pic.twitter.com/myQiShT1yQ

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 23, 2020

In terms of late season motivation, the Broncos offense at least has a lot to play for, as Drew Lock tries to convince John Elway he deserves a chance to start next season. Meanwhile, Vic Fangio is just two games removed from holding the Chiefs to their lowest point total of the year. The man can scheme up a defense and he’ll surely have something planned for Josh Allen.

Give the Broncos a look here. If they don’t come through, you still have all weekend to make up for it.

Pats Punish Phins

Miami is favored over the Patriots for the first since 2013 and just the second time in their last 35 meetings. But being infrequently favored against a division foe is not the reason we’re shorting the Dolphins.

Remember a couple weeks ago when we backed Bill Belichick against a rookie QB? That went pretty well.

The #Patriots’ 45-0 win over the Chargers was the largest road shutout win in #NFL history by a team that entered the game with a losing record.

It's also Bill Belichick's 4th career win of 45+ points, tied for the most in league history.

— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) December 7, 2020

Now the master takes on the student, Brian Flores, for the fourth time in two years (Belichick is 2-1 straight up). But for the first time, Flores will have Tua Tagovailoa playing quarterback for his Dolphins, which probably isn’t going to go great.

Brian Flores on the challenge for Tua Tagovailoa going up against a Bill Belichick defense for the first time:

“It’s gonna be a very big challenge. Not only for Tua but our entire offense and our entire team.” pic.twitter.com/JWlHT38Lvu

— Will Manso (@WillMansoWPLG) December 16, 2020

Tua is winning games, but you’d be hard pressed to argue he’s been more impressive than Justin Herbert. Tagovailoa ranks 16th in passer rating, 24th in OBR and 28th in yards per attempt. His 4-2 record has largely been a result of Miami’s lights-out defense. However, that mighty Dolphins unit only ranks 26th in run defense EPA per play.

New England racked up 217 yards on the ground in the Week 1 meeting between these two. Though the rest of the Pats’ offense never took off, they’re still a strong rushing squad in Week 15, ranking top 10 in yards per carry and per game.

Cam Newton doing Cam Newton things 👀 That’s his second rushing TD of the day 💨#Patriots: 14#Dolphins: 3 https://t.co/qdmn1QKIul

— The CTB Show (@catchtheblitz) September 13, 2020

The Dolphins’ stunning upset of the Patriots in Week 17 of last season ruined New England’s chance at a first-round bye. I’m sure Belichick and company would love to be responsible for knocking Miami out of a playoff spot, while keeping their slim chances alive.

Jets Get First Win Over Rams

Lol. Just kidding!