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NFL Upset Picks for Week 14

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Dec 12, 2020 · 10:56 AM PST

Alex Smith jogging on the field
Washington Football Team quarterback Alex Smith #11 in action during an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday, Dec. 7, 2020, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Justin Berl)
  • Can the Bengals get a win without Joe Burrow over the lousy Cowboys?
  • Will Washington keep their winning streak alive against San Francisco?
  • Last week’s picks went 3-0, winning 5.29 units and bringing us up to +10.21 on the season

Wow, Week 13 really brought it! There was a ton of close finishes, the last undefeated team fell, Gregg Williams kept the Jets winless and most importantly, our picks were awesome.  What does this weekend have in store? Looking at the number of close spreads in the NFL’s Week 14 odds, there’s sure to be drama, but it’s unlikely to live up to this.

In honor of the recently fired Williams, we’re going to start this week’s upset picks by fading another truly abysmal defensive coordinator who shouldn’t have a job in the modern NFL.

NFL Week 14 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units
Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals DAL -3.5 +160 Bengals 1.5
Washington Football Team vs San Francisco 49ers SF -3 +150 Washington 1.5

Odds taken Dec. 12 from DraftKings and FanDuel

Cowboys Can’t Be Trusted

Cincinnati’s offense has been a disaster since Joe Burrow got hurt in Week 11. Last week, Brandon Allen did his best Burrow impression, getting sacked five times by the Dolphins. Gio Bernard and the ground game haven’t helped at all, rushing for just 40 yards in back-to-back games. And yet, there’s a reason for optimism this week.

Mike Nolan and that terrible Dallas defense are getting 3.5 points in Cincy, which seems like a big spread to cover when you’re incapable of stopping the opposing team from scoring.

The Cowboys got steamrolled by the Ravens on Tuesday for 294 rushing yards, the fourth time this season they’ve allowed an opponent to run for over 200 yards. Now they’ve got to turn around on a short week and head to Cincinnati for a game they should win; meaning they’ll probably lose by 10. Dallas is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season.

The Bengals D, on the other hand, has played pretty well recently, allowing 20, 19 and 19 points in their last three outings. If the offense can find some success against Dallas (and at this point, who can’t?) then Cincy should be in a great spot to pull off the upset here.

Washington Keeps Winning

It’s important to remember that the 49ers are calling State Farm Stadium home for the remainder of the season, so there really is no homefield advantage that should be included in this line. So are the injured 49ers led by Nick Mullens really three points better than Washington on a neutral field? I’m not so sure.

For one, Washington’s defense has been playing lights out the past few weeks.

While we love to give Kyle Shanahan credit for the ways he makes offense easy on the quarterback, Mullens has been pressured a ton this season and he hasn’t exactly handled it well. San Francisco has nine turnovers in their last three games.

With Alex Smith running the offense, Washington isn’t beating themselves. They’re avoiding turnovers and putting their defense in good spots to make big plays.

Look for Washington to continue rolling against an undermanned San Fran team this week.

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