NFL Upset Picks for Week 14
- Can the Bengals get a win without Joe Burrow over the lousy Cowboys?
- Will Washington keep their winning streak alive against San Francisco?
- Last week’s picks went 3-0, winning 5.29 units and bringing us up to +10.21 on the season
Wow, Week 13 really brought it! There was a ton of close finishes, the last undefeated team fell, Gregg Williams kept the Jets winless and most importantly, our picks were awesome. What does this weekend have in store? Looking at the number of close spreads in the NFL’s Week 14 odds, there’s sure to be drama, but it’s unlikely to live up to this.
Gregg Williams calls a blitz instead of playing prevent defense. 🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/mNul4dBDNn
— Jason Ounpraseuth (@JasonOun95) December 6, 2020
In honor of the recently fired Williams, we’re going to start this week’s upset picks by fading another truly abysmal defensive coordinator who shouldn’t have a job in the modern NFL.
NFL Week 14 Upset Picks
|Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals||DAL -3.5||+160||Bengals||1.5|
|Washington Football Team vs San Francisco 49ers||SF -3||+150||Washington||1.5|
Odds taken Dec. 12 from DraftKings and FanDuel
Cowboys Can’t Be Trusted
Cincinnati’s offense has been a disaster since Joe Burrow got hurt in Week 11. Last week, Brandon Allen did his best Burrow impression, getting sacked five times by the Dolphins. Gio Bernard and the ground game haven’t helped at all, rushing for just 40 yards in back-to-back games. And yet, there’s a reason for optimism this week.
Just a reminder that the Cowboys defense sucks. pic.twitter.com/QM1e1OACBm
— #RingerNFL (@ringernfl) December 9, 2020
Mike Nolan and that terrible Dallas defense are getting 3.5 points in Cincy, which seems like a big spread to cover when you’re incapable of stopping the opposing team from scoring.
The Cowboys got steamrolled by the Ravens on Tuesday for 294 rushing yards, the fourth time this season they’ve allowed an opponent to run for over 200 yards. Now they’ve got to turn around on a short week and head to Cincinnati for a game they should win; meaning they’ll probably lose by 10. Dallas is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
Mike Nolan should've been FIRED a long time ago.
This defense sucks.#DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/U9uJf4Kc7T
— Batman (@Batmancanceeu) December 9, 2020
The Bengals D, on the other hand, has played pretty well recently, allowing 20, 19 and 19 points in their last three outings. If the offense can find some success against Dallas (and at this point, who can’t?) then Cincy should be in a great spot to pull off the upset here.
Washington Keeps Winning
It’s important to remember that the 49ers are calling State Farm Stadium home for the remainder of the season, so there really is no homefield advantage that should be included in this line. So are the injured 49ers led by Nick Mullens really three points better than Washington on a neutral field? I’m not so sure.
For one, Washington’s defense has been playing lights out the past few weeks.
NFC East defenses on the mend.
The Giants defensive DVOA has improved to 17th during their 4-game winning streak.
The Washington Football Team are top five in pass defense DVOA and top 10 in run defense DVOA.
Access our DVOA database > https://t.co/IKmMm6lxR5#NFL #football pic.twitter.com/cSPhF0NTj8
— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) December 12, 2020
While we love to give Kyle Shanahan credit for the ways he makes offense easy on the quarterback, Mullens has been pressured a ton this season and he hasn’t exactly handled it well. San Francisco has nine turnovers in their last three games.
Highest pressure rate faced by a QB:
1. Nick Mullens – 30.9%
2. Alex Smith – 29.3%
3. Sam Darnold – 28.3%
4. Justin Herbert – 28.2%
1. Drew Brees – 13.5%
2. Aaron Rodgers – 13.8%
3. Philip Rivers – 14.8%
4. Ben Roethlisberger – 14.9%https://t.co/usbhrZJBcw
— ProFootballReference (@pfref) December 11, 2020
With Alex Smith running the offense, Washington isn’t beating themselves. They’re avoiding turnovers and putting their defense in good spots to make big plays.
So WASHINGTON really bout to give the Steelers their FIRST LOSS 👀 (via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/eqRBvgNi0R
— Overtime (@overtime) December 8, 2020
Look for Washington to continue rolling against an undermanned San Fran team this week.