NFL Upset Picks for Week 16

• Can the Los Angeles Rams rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss and win in Seattle against the Seahawks?
• Will the Titans be able to keep pace with the Packers offense in Lambeau?
• Last week’s picks went 0-2, losing 3 units to bring our yearly total down to +7.96

Week 15 gave underdog bettors a true Christmas miracle, when both the +1000 Jets and +700 Bengals won outright. Too bad we didn’t pick either of those games! (At least seriously.) Instead we got a lump of coal from the Broncos and Patriots.

Turning to the NFL’s Week 16 odds, we’re going to start by focusing on a few underdogs that still have a lot to play for as they battle it out for their respective division crowns.

NFL Week 16 Upset Picks

Odds taken Dec. 25 from DraftKings and FanDuel

Rams Rebound vs Seahawks

There’s no concern surrounding the Rams, even after falling flat against the Jets last week. You’d think losing to Adam Gase would have some impact on LA’s appeal to the betting public, but they’re only one-point dogs in the Seattle for this crucial NFC West tilt .

Seahawks fans can't make fun of the Rams losing to the Jets that much because the Seahawks going 0-2 against the Rams is probably the most likely outcome

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 21, 2020

Los Angeles stymied the Seahawks’ offense in Week 10 and since then, Seattle hasn’t been the same aggressive aerial attack. Russell Wilson is averaging five fewer pass attempts in the second half of the season and since Week 9, the Seahawks rank 17th in EPA per play and 16th in passing.

Russell Wilson has been an average QB in his last 6 games. Including what Wilson’s stats vs WFT today, he has averaged 209 yds passing and has a total of 9 pass TDs and 5 INTs. 4 TDs were vs the Jets #yikes

— Andrew Goldberg (@AGBerg12) December 20, 2020

Numbers-wise, Seattle’s defense is also playing better over that stretch, but they haven’t exactly been challenged by the league’s best offenses. After facing a gamut of Dwayne Haskins, Colts McCoy, the New York Jets and the Carson Wentz-led Eagles; playing Jared Goff will feel like going up against Kurt Warner.

🔵 Jared Goff (No Pressure):
84.2 Adj Com %
8.4 YPA
0 sacks

🟡 Under Pressure:
61.4 Adj Com %
4.1 YPA
20 sacks

🔷 Seahawks – 61.6 PFF Pressure Grade (31st in NFL)

Robert Woods & Cooper Kupp🚀💥 #RamsHouse #FantasyFootball

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) December 25, 2020

The Rams have always been able to bounce back well under Sean McVay: they haven’t lost consecutive games straight up and against the spread since Dec. 15, 2018. With a chance to take the lead in the NFC West with a win, don’t expect a flat showing here.

Titans Outshoot Packers

In the final stretch of the season, the MVP race has basically boiled down to Patrick Mahomes vs Aaron Rodgers. Yet there’s an overlooked candidate who could force his way into the mainstream discussion with an excellent showing on Sunday Night Football: Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Ryan Tannehill = Patrick Mahomes? numbers wise, at least, yep. Actually better numbers.

One of the most underrated players in the entire league… meanwhile Mahomes gets everyone's attention. pic.twitter.com/785FbTUJc0

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 21, 2020

If Tennessee can pull off the upset as 3.5 point underdogs in Lambeau, Tannehill MVP chatter will get real loud. Especially because both of these teams win by letting their offenses do the heavy lifting while the defense just comes along for the ride.

Offensive and defensive EPA/play leaders through 14 weeks, with current playoff teams highlighted.

– Titans passed the Packers for the top offense

– Steelers just ahead of the Rams for top defense pic.twitter.com/UqXSPj1gjx

— TruMedia (@TruMediaSports) December 22, 2020

The Pack’s defense doesn’t rank nearly as terribly as the Titans, but Tennessee’s offense does have all the elements that have given Green Bay fits in recent years. The Packers’ run defense has been notably weak, and the better the running back, the worse they perform. Dalvin Cook had 226 combined yards in his last outing against the Pack, while Alvin Kamara notched 197. What damage will Derrick Henry do on the league’s biggest stage?

Derrick Henry with the MEAN stiff arm! 👑

📺: Watch #DETvsTEN on CBS pic.twitter.com/1jhPLFZncg

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 20, 2020

There’s no reason to expect the Titans defense to step up here either, but Green Bay is capable of going on a cold stretch, like in the second half last week against Carolina.

This game will probably come down to; who gets the ball last? I for one will be hoping it’s Tannehill and company that get put in that position.

Cincy Covers Consecutive Games

The Bengals had been a pretty brutal bet since that season ending injury to Joey Covers, before they absolutely waxed the Steelers on Monday Night. That shocking result had more to do with Pittsburgh’s offensive freefall than anything else, but it was still a solid showing from Carl Lawson, William Jackson III, and Mackensie Alexander — a few Cincy defensive players angling for new deals.

the carl lawson vs. steelers mixtape. the spirit of kevin greene was with him all night 🙏 pic.twitter.com/jfFARCbcJM

— John Sheeran (@John__Sheeran) December 22, 2020

A few weeks ago, we made the case that the Bengals D was actually playing okay football, and that remains the case. Yet somehow, they’re 7.5-point underdogs in Houston this weekend against an equally trash Texans team.

The only reason Houston is getting this much love is because of one player.

Deshaun Watson's DVOA since Week 4: 23.0%, (second-best, 27.1% if we throw out the high wind game against the Browns)

Texans run offense DVOA since Week 4: -38.3% (last)

Texans defensive DVOA since Week 4: 12.8% (second-to-last)

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) December 21, 2020

Deshaun Watson can cover for a lot of the Texans deficiencies, but he can’t single handedly win this team games.

Wild sequence in Indy.

📺: #HOUvsIND on CBS
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/EJLjYXQNy2 pic.twitter.com/T366ys6psZ

— NFL (@NFL) December 20, 2020

Playing Cincy in this spot isn’t a big vote of confidence in Ryan Finley and company, but an acknowledgement this line is way too high in favor of the Texans. Houston wasn’t fetching 7.5 in either game against Jacksonville this season. What have they done in the last few weeks to be favored by such a spread now?

Anything can happen in a late season game with no playoff implications. Taking Cincy at +270 against a pretty evenly matched opponent (minus the QB spot) is worth a shot.