- In a game that might see more turnovers than first downs, Chicago visits the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night
- Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson meet in a highlight reel showdown between two potential MVPs
- Last week’s 2-1 record in upset picks netted us an extra 3.05 units
We’re not going to dwell too much on last week’s picks, because I was always taught to be humble in victory. Besides, there’s a ton of exciting matchups on the NFL’s Week 11 schedule. There’s a Super Bowl 52 rematch, a thriller in Mexico and a duel between two of the best young QBs in the game: Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
Of course… none of those games are on Sunday Night Football! Instead, we get two of the least thrilling young QBs in the game. We also get our first upset pick of the week.
Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams Odds
|Los Angeles Rams||-6.5||-280|
*Odds taken Nov. 15
The Los Angeles Rams are fresh off the heels of losing to a team with a dope defense and an offense that can’t move the ball, so why they’re favored by so much against another escapes me.
In their last two games against real NFL defenses (aka, not the Falcons or Bengals) the Rams have failed to score an offensive touchdown in 25 straight drives. Though they’ve been more susceptible to the run since losing Akiem Hicks, the Bears D is still top five in DVOA. Also, the Rams can’t run worth a damn.
Los Angeles Rams rushing offense:
2018 (Full season)
* Averaged 139 ypg
* 5 games with <100 yards rushing
2019 (through Week 10)
* Averaging 86 ypg
* 6 games with <100 yards rushing
— Bate™ (@NoPlanB_) November 11, 2019
Of course, right above the Bears in defensive DVOA is the Rams D. So it’s not gonna be a shootout. NBC better get a game ball ready for Johnny Hekker and Pat O’Donnell.
Since defense is going to dictate how this game goes, let’s look at who can do more damage.
This Bears vs. Rams game on SNF might legit finish 3-0, smash mouth defense! ?
— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) November 13, 2019
One upside to how inaccurate Mitch Trubisky has been this year is that he even misses defenders. He only has four turnovers in eight starts, so if the Rams are hoping to get a short field for their offense, it’s not as likely to happen as the other way around.
Jared Goff has nine interceptions on the year. He also has five lost fumbles this year because of those itty bitty grabbers.
— The Ringer (@ringer) September 30, 2019
This game is poised to be uglier and dumber than when these two squads met last year and the only TD was scored by an offensive lineman.
The Bears had homefield in that one and they’ll likely have the majority of fans in the rematch. Take Chicago.
Pick: 1.5 units on the Bears moneyline (+240)
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens Odds
*Odds taken Nov. 15
I’ll resist the urge to only talk about the QBs in this game and start with this opening point: Houston ranks sixth in defensive DVOA against the run.
Keep in mind though, Baltimore has anything but an ordinary rushing attack, so it’s difficult to determine how much that standing will actually matter. (No one else in the top 10 has played the Ravens.)
“There’s no scheme, and no defense for @Lj_era8.” ?
— NFL (@NFL) November 8, 2019
Of course, the big reason to like Houston here – and in every game – is Watson. Perhaps the only player as electric this season is on the other side of the field. But Watson boasts better weapons in the passing game, and the Ravens D hasn’t shown an ability to consistently get pressure on opposing QBs, rating 27th in the league in adjusted sack rate.
When the Ravens are on defense pic.twitter.com/dKDjURwtHy
— Jordanthan Villar, Cycle Haver (@NaturallyKatz) November 10, 2019
Riding a five-game win streak heading into this weekend, the Ravens are due for a let down. Plus, Baltimore has been a shaky home favorite this year, going 0-3 ATS. Meanwhile, Houston is a healthy 4-1 ATS on the road.
Deshaun Watson & Lamar Jackson are the first QBs in NFL history with 15+ pass TD, 5+ rush TD & a 100+ passer rating over their team’s first 9 games of a season
Watson: 18 pass TD, 5 rush TD, 107.1 rtg
Jackson: 15 pass TD, 6 rush TD, 101.7 rtg
They’ll go head-to-head on Sunday pic.twitter.com/fK1Ln6Tzet
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 12, 2019
The Texans are certainly the play vs the number, and since we like to go big here, we’ll play ’em on the moneyline too.
Pick: 1.5 units on Texans moneyline (+195)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.