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Upset Picks for Week 10 in NFL: Mahomes Is Not Where The Heart Is

Patrick Mahomes walking off the field
Patrick Mahomes returns this week, yet we're fading the Kansas City Chiefs this week when the play the Tennessee Titans. Photo from @STwithScott (Twitter)
  • Patrick Mahomes returns to the lineup for the Kansas City Chiefs as they visit the upset-minded Titans
  • The Cleveland Browns are still getting respect, so we absolutely have to bet against them vs the Bills
  • Last week’s picks went 1-1, but we only broke even after putting most of our units behind the Buccaneers

Hopefully, you allocated capital better than I did last week so that our 1-1 picks left you with a profit. For the NFL’s Week 10 schedule, I did the math this time so that if any of these picks turn out, you’ll turn a profit.

As for a theme, with two of this week’s picks, we’re going against teams that will have a new man at quarterback, including one who is getting an absolute stud back.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans Odds

Team Spread Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -6 -270
Tennessee Titans +6 +230

*Odds taken Nov. 8

I’m both thrilled that Patrick Mahomes is back and also disappointed the Chiefs didn’t use the opportunity to rest him more. Their team was still competitive with Matt Moore taking snaps and the extra time off could only benefit the reigning MVP.

While Mahomes has apparently recovered from that dislocated knee he suffered two weeks ago, let’s not forget he was also battling a foot injury prior to that which severely hampered his mobility and therefore, his effectiveness.

There’s more than just “Mahomes might not be fully healthy” as reason to like Tennessee in this spot though. For one, they’ve been a different team with Ryan Tannehill under center. The offense is averaging over 23 points a game and has climbed from 27th to 22nd in offensive DVOA as the Titans have won their last two home games.

Also, Derrick Henry has had great success in his two previous games against Kansas City, averaging over six yards a carry and scoring four TDs against the Chiefs D. If the Colts and Texans really did provide the blueprint for beating the Chiefs, then it’s one the Titans could be able to replicate.

Pick: 1 unit on the Titans moneyline (+230)

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns Odds

Team Spread Odds
Buffalo Bills +3 +125
Cleveland Browns -3 -145

Odds taken Nov. 8

How is this still happening? The Browns have been riding their preseason hype to weird lines all season, including being favored in Denver last week. Now, 2-6 Cleveland is hosting a 6-2 Bills team and linemakers are still treating it like these squads are even.

The Browns may have the more talented roster, but Freddie Kitchens still hasn’t found a way to put his players in a position to succeed. Cleveland is 25th in offensive DVOA, 22nd in defensive DVOA, third in giveaways and first in penalty yardage.

The Bills offense hasn’t been great this year either, but at least Josh Allen is showing signs of improvement in his second season. Baker Mayfield is regressing in every major passing category and can’t seem to find any chemistry with this supposedly loaded wide receiver group (he’s thrown just two touchdowns to WRs this year).

If you’re still betting the Browns, you are Charlie Brown trying to kick that damn football and you deserve to land on your head.

Pick: 1.5 units on the Bills moneyline (+125)

Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Miami Dolphins +11.5 +450
Indianapolis Colts -11.5 -600

Odds taken Nov. 8

This line is absurd. While I’m as big a Frank Reich Stan as anyone, the man is down to his third-string quarterback and is still missing his top receiver. Yes, the Colts put forth a valiant effort in Pittsburgh last week before ultimately blowing it, but Brian Hoyer’s mistakes were the reason the Steelers came back in the first place.

The Colts are only 2-2 at Lucas Oil Stadium this year, losing both games where they were more than a field goal favorite. Meanwhile, the frisky Dolphins have covered in four straight games.

One win won’t whet Ryan Fitzpatrick’s appetite for screwing over bettors or ownership: Miami is surely going to mess up this tank by winning another game at some point. I already like the Dolphins to cover and since this moneyline is offering so much value, I’ll put a little down on a huge upset.

Pick: .5 units on the Dolphins moneyline (+450)

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