Upset Picks for Week 9 in NFL: Tampa Takes Seattle Down a Peg
- Will Tampa Bay be able to end a three-game skid in hostile Seattle territory?
- Will Lamar Jackson’s unique abilities be enough to stump an unstoppable Pats D?
- Hope the answer to both those questions is yes, because I’m only up +0.22 units this season after last week’s 0-3 debacle
Holy crap, we’re halfway through the NFL season! It seems like just yesterday we were getting excited about the Cleveland Browns, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, the Jets chances at contending in the AFC East, the Bears repeating in the NFC North… you get the bit.
Clearly I still much left to learn about the league’s landscape, but looking at the NFL’s Week 9 slate, there’s a couple of lines that are enticing based off what we know from the first half of the year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +5 | +205 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -5 | -245 |
Odds taken Nov. 1
The Buccaneers are back in the spot they like most: sizeable underdogs poised to screw up every parlay. Tampa’s only two wins this season came as big underdogs (+6.5 at Carolina and +9 at the Rams), losing every other game as a field goal dog or better.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ sole purpose of existing is to thin the herd of every NFL survivor pool
— Ryan Szemple (@RyanSzemple) September 30, 2019
Tampa has historically fared very well against the Seahawks, taking four of the last five meetings. And that lone loss came in OT when the 0-7 Buccaneers went to Seattle as a 14-point underdog.
As for this year’s teams, Seattle managed to add Josh Gordon this week, giving Russell Wilson another receiver he won’t throw to until his team is trailing in the 4th quarter.
You’re saying this like Pete doesn’t want Gordon for his run-blocking.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) November 1, 2019
After the Seahawks banged-up secondary got toasted for 460 yards through the air by Matt (how the hell has he not retired?) Schaub, this week doesn’t appear to be a matchup where Pete Carroll’s conservative style will work out. Even with Jameis Winston bound for a few stupid turnovers, Bruce Arians has been committed to letting his much-maligned QB sling it in recent weeks, because eventually, he’ll find these awesome Bucs receivers for big plays.
“Mike Evans” #NFL100 pic.twitter.com/46POCBSjZA
— Kids Jerseys (@KidsJerseys) October 27, 2019
Tampa should put up points in this one, and I’m not sure Seattle will keep pace, especially with Wilson receiving snaps from a rookie center making his first career start.
The Seahawks remain a bad home bet this year (0-4 ATS) and the Buccaneers are due a little good karma after getting screwed last week.
I’m late on this, but why did the refs blow the whistle on this failed fake field goal? Bucs lose, but they got screwed herepic.twitter.com/zTpV9erana
— Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre) October 27, 2019
Take the Bucs with confidence.
Pick: 1.5 units on the Buccaneers moneyline (+205)
New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -3 | -165 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +3 | +150 |
Odds taken Nov. 1
Unfortunately, most of the early week value was bet out of this line that opened at Ravens +3.5 or higher. But we’re still gonna put some money on it because 1) This is the game of the week and we have to have some juice on it and 2) Screw the Patriots!
TRUMP: Tom Brady called me yesterday and gave his support pic.twitter.com/N8GiziW6XE
— FOX & friends (@foxandfriends) November 8, 2016
John Harbaugh stacks up better than most head coaches against Bill Belichick, going 3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS and leading a defense that has been able to coax some pretty lousy performances out of Tom Brady. While the 2019 Ravens D doesn’t stack up to years past, well, neither does this Patriots offense.
The #Patriots offense ranks 25th in the league in yards per play and 28th in big plays. I would think that would need to improve when you look at the upcoming schedule.
— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) October 30, 2019
New England’s D is historically great, but shutting down Lamar Jackson will be challenge enough this week: the odds of them generating more defensive touchdowns on top of that are low. Also, the Browns exposed an ability to run the ball up the gut of this defense, an area Mark Ingram should excel in.
The turnovers were killers, but the Browns have moved the ball well against this Patriots D. They’re averaging 6.7 yards per play to the Pats’ 4.2, and Nick Chubb is over 120 rushing yards already.
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) October 27, 2019
Finally, if this game is as close as previous versions of this rivalry, you have to feel a lot better about Baltimore’s kicking situation than New England’s.
Pick: 1 unit on the Ravens moneyline (+150)
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
