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Upset Picks for Week 9 in NFL: Tampa Takes Seattle Down a Peg

Jameis Winston avoids a sack
After getting jobbed in Week 8, can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bounce back and get a win against the Seattle Seahawks in CenturyLink? Photo from @Deadspin (Twitter).
  • Will Tampa Bay be able to end a three-game skid in hostile Seattle territory?
  • Will Lamar Jackson’s unique abilities be enough to stump an unstoppable Pats D?
  • Hope the answer to both those questions is yes, because I’m only up +0.22 units this season after last week’s 0-3 debacle

Holy crap, we’re halfway through the NFL season! It seems like just yesterday we were getting excited about the Cleveland Browns, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, the Jets chances at contending in the AFC East, the Bears repeating in the NFC North… you get the bit.

Clearly I still much left to learn about the league’s landscape, but looking at the NFL’s Week 9 slate, there’s a couple of lines that are enticing based off what we know from the first half of the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 +205
Seattle Seahawks -5 -245

Odds taken Nov. 1

The Buccaneers are back in the spot they like most: sizeable underdogs poised to screw up every parlay. Tampa’s only two wins this season came as big underdogs (+6.5 at Carolina and +9 at the Rams), losing every other game as a field goal dog or better.

Tampa has historically fared very well against the Seahawks, taking four of the last five meetings. And that lone loss came in OT when the 0-7 Buccaneers went to Seattle as a 14-point underdog.

As for this year’s teams, Seattle managed to add Josh Gordon this week, giving Russell Wilson another receiver he won’t throw to until his team is trailing in the 4th quarter.

After the Seahawks banged-up secondary got toasted for 460 yards through the air by Matt (how the hell has he not retired?) Schaub, this week doesn’t appear to be a matchup where Pete Carroll’s conservative style will work out. Even with Jameis Winston bound for a few stupid turnovers, Bruce Arians has been committed to letting his much-maligned QB sling it in recent weeks, because eventually, he’ll find these awesome Bucs receivers for big plays.

Tampa should put up points in this one, and I’m not sure Seattle will keep pace, especially with Wilson receiving snaps from a rookie center making his first career start.

The Seahawks remain a bad home bet this year (0-4 ATS) and the Buccaneers are due a little good karma after getting screwed last week.

Take the Bucs with confidence.

Pick: 1.5 units on the Buccaneers moneyline (+205)

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
New England Patriots -3 -165
Baltimore Ravens +3 +150

Odds taken Nov. 1

Unfortunately, most of the early week value was bet out of this line that opened at Ravens +3.5 or higher. But we’re still gonna put some money on it because 1) This is the game of the week and we have to have some juice on it and 2) Screw the Patriots!

John Harbaugh stacks up better than most head coaches against Bill Belichick, going 3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS and leading a defense that has been able to coax some pretty lousy performances out of Tom Brady. While the 2019 Ravens D doesn’t stack up to years past, well, neither does this Patriots offense.

New England’s D is historically great, but shutting down Lamar Jackson will be challenge enough this week: the odds of them generating more defensive touchdowns on top of that are low. Also, the Browns exposed an ability to run the ball up the gut of this defense, an area Mark Ingram should excel in.

Finally, if this game is as close as previous versions of this rivalry, you have to feel a lot better about Baltimore’s kicking situation than New England’s.

Pick: 1 unit on the Ravens moneyline (+150)

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