Opening Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2 Odds & Early UFC 329 Prediction

• Conor McGregor will be returning against Max Holloway at UFC 329
• The fight will be a rematch of their 2013 preliminary bout
• Opening odds have been released for the International Fight Week main event

After five years away from the Octagon, Conor McGregor is once again scheduled to return in an International Fight Week headliner. ‘The Notorious’ will lock horns with Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event, a rematch nearly 13 years in the making.

The UFC announced the fight during UFC Vegas 117, and opening lines were created shortly thereafter. Holloway is unsurprisingly the favorite, but many needed a double-take with the Hawaiian given a significant edge in the betting market.

Holloway opens as a -270 favorite on the prediction site Kalshi, with McGregor coming back at +245.

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Odds

Prediction Markets

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Max Holloway

73%

Conor McGregor

29%

Predict

Max Holloway opens as a -270 favorite, giving him a 73 percent implied win probability. McGregor comes back as the +245 underdog, giving him a 29 percent chance of winning.

Some sportsbooks opened even sooner and lined Holloway as an even larger favorite, as wide as nearly 5-1. Fans were quick to jump on the ever-popular McGregor and close the gap a bit.

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Odds as of May 20, 2026, on Kalshi. Grab a Kalshi promo code or check out the best UFC betting apps for 2026.

Max Holloway Opens as Clear Favorite Over Conor McGregor

With McGregor taking so much time away from the Octagon, he was likely going to open as an underdog against anyone. Pitting him against Holloway, the recent BMF champion who is not far removed from putting on the highlight of the century against Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, would widen the odds even further.

However, if the odds remain steady until closing, McGregor will be fighting as the biggest underdog of his career. Even Khabib Nurmagomedov was only a -190 favorite to beat him in their now-iconic bout at UFC 229, according to Best Fight Odds.

McGregor is not only coming off a half-decade-long layoff, but he is also recovering from one of the most brutal injuries in recent history. The Irishman gruesomely snapped his leg in half in his most recent fight, a first-round TKO loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 264. He attempted to return against Michael Chandler at UFC 303 before withdrawing within weeks of the fight due to a broken toe.

Rematch 13 Years in the Making

In addition to being two of the most popular fighters on the UFC roster, Holloway and McGregor have been connected to each other since their paths initially crossed in 2013. The original fight was not nearly as significant as the rematch will be, as the eventual champions first met as two up-and-coming featherweights on the prelims of a Fight Night card.

McGregor went on to beat Holloway in just his second UFC outing despite tearing his ACL early in the first round. The injury forced him to take an uncharacteristic wrestling-heavy approach to get the victory, landing a career-high four takedowns for over six minutes of control time.

Fighter Profiles

Max Holloway

• Age: 34
• Record: 27-9
• Notable wins: Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Chan Sung Jung, Arnold Allen, Jose Aldo (x2)
• Losses: Charles Oliveira, Ilia Topuria, Alexander Volkanovski (x3), Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor

Conor McGregor

• Age: 37
• Record: 22-6
• Notable wins: Max Holloway, Eddie Alvarez, Dustin Poirier, Donald Cerrone, Nate Diaz
• Losses: Dustin Poirier (x2), Khabib Nurmagomedov, Nate Diaz

Early McGregor vs Holloway Prediction

A lot can change in two months when the fighters are scheduled to meet in the cage, but momentum is clearly not on McGregor’s side. Fighters rarely return from five-year-long layoffs in great shape, much less at 37 years old and coming off a career-changing injury.

The fight being at welterweight favors McGregor, but he has never been one to utilize his size and strength in the Octagon. McGregor might have wrestled his way to a victory the first time around, but he will look to take Holloway’s head off in the rematch, something only one person has successfully done.

McGregor always has a puncher’s chance, but our early McGregor vs. Holloway prediction will be ‘Blessed’ by third- or fourth-round TKO.