Astros vs Cubs Predictions, Picks & Props (May 22)

• The Chicago Cubs are -150 moneyline favorites as they open a series Friday vs the Astros
• Chicago has lost five in a row, and was swept by the Brewers at home
• Read below for the my Astros vs Cubs predictions, latest odds and player prop bets

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Riding a season-worst 5-game losing skid, the Chicago Cubs (29-21) try to turn their fortunes around when they welcome the Houston Astros (20-31) to town.

Houston’s got its own struggles, as they’ve picked up four wins in their last dozen.

Perhaps it’s a little surprising, though, that the Astros have been pegged as the underdogs in the MLB odds, though it appears they own the advantage in the MLB probable pitchers.

Frst pitch scheduled for at 2:20pm ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, in a game that can be seen live on Apple TV.

Astros vs Cubs Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Astros vs Cubs and other MLB action.

The Cubs are set as a -142 home favorite on the moneyline, while getting +162 odds on the runline to cover 1.5 runs, with both odds from FanDuel.

The Astros are getting +125 odds to win outright over at bet365, and slightly less appealing runline odds of -175 at BetMGM to stay within one run of the home team.

Under bettors should head to FanDuel, where the line is set to 7.5 paying at -122 odds, while Over bettors can find a slightly lower line of 7.0 runs, paying out at -110 odds at bet365.

Astros vs Cubs Picks and Prediction

• Best Bet: Astros ML (+120 at FanDuel)

I am backing the road underdog in this spot.

The Astros hand the ball to Spencer Arrighetti, who has been sensational this season. Arrighetti boasts a 1.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across 36.0 innings. He is striking out 8.75 batters per nine innings.

The Cubs counter with Jameson Taillon, who has labored to a 4.97 ERA over 50.2 innings, surrendering a concerning 2.84 home runs per nine.

Astros vs Cubs Team Stats

Arrighetti’s ability to limit hard contact presents a steep challenge for a Cubs lineup eager to break out of a slump. Taillon boasts better pure control but has been heavily punished by the long ball. If Taillon cannot correct his home run issues against a lineup packed with power, it could be a long afternoon at Wrigley Field.

When evaluating team metrics, the Astros struggle defensively but produce on the road.

Away from home, they are hitting .267 with a .749 OPS. The Cubs are potent at home, averaging 4.96 runs per game. However, situational trends suggest fading the home favorites here. The Cubs hold a 65.5% win rate as favorites but are just 1-4 in their last five games in that role.

Astros vs Cubs Props

Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits (-215 at DraftKings)
Alvarez sports a .303 batting average and a 1.017 OPS. Given Taillon’s 2.84 HR/9 allowed, Alvarez is in a prime spot. Looking at the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, Alvarez has is hitting .333 vs Taillon in 12 career at-bats, with a home run and three RBI.

Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126 at DraftKings)
His impressive 8.75 K/9 rate positions him perfectly to clear this modest total. In his lone start against the Cubs in 2024, Arrighetti struck out seven batters in just 3 2/3 innings of work. He has thrown six or more strikeouts in two starts this season, missing the Over by a single punch in each of his last two outings.