- No you’re not seeing ghosts: Sam Darnold and the Jets are a good bet against Jacksonville this week
- Can the Panthers keep winning with Kyle Allen against the unbeaten 49ers?
- Underdog picks went 1-1 in Week 7, winning 1 unit and bringing the yearly total to +3.72
We’re almost halfway through the NFL season and there’s still so many teams that need to be figured out. While last week helped us figure out that the Ravens are the real deal, looking at the NFL’s Week 8 lines, there’s more than a few teams that bettors don’t seem to trust. And we’re going to back ’em this time around.
New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
|New York Jets||+6.5||+250|
*Odds taken 10/25/19
I love Minshew mania as much as the next guy, but this line is far too big in favor of the Jags. We only have a small sample size of the Adam Gase offense with Sam Darnold: don’t let last week’s outing at New England sour you on the Jets. The Pats make almost everyone look dumb. These two J-teams are more evenly matched than this line suggests.
The Jets rank top-10 in defense and special teams DVOA. Despite a lackluster pass rush, they’ve generated three more takeaways than Jacksonville this season in fewer games. They’re also holding opponents to just 3.3 yards per rush, meaning Leonard Fournette might not get going on Sunday. Not that he’s a threat to score anyway.
Most red zone carries among #NFL RB’s ?
Ezekiel Elliott 37
Leonard Fournette 27
Sony Michel 25
Christian McCaffrey 24
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 24, 2019
(Fournette has one rushing TD this season)
Perhaps most importantly though, New York is motivated by revenge. Every living being has forgotten about the Jets-Jags Week 16 matchup last season. (See, you forgot so much you didn’t realize it was really a Week 4 game!)
Everybody except a few pouty-pusses in Gotham green.
— ESPN New York (@ESPNNewYork) October 24, 2019
Duval has never really been much of a homefield advantage (the Jags are 13-18-1 ATS there since 2015), so I’m gonna take Darnold and co. to spoil the Jags hopes of returning to .500.
Pick: 1 unit on the Jets moneyline (+250)
Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers Odds
|San Francisco 49ers||-5.5||-250|
*Odds taken 10/25/19
Two of the best defensive lines in football; two wide receiving groups that you can only really describe as “fast;” and two quarterbacks that, despite their unbeaten records, both look pretty average. Really, the only major difference between these two teams is the Panthers don’t have a goose egg in the loss column.
Carolina is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 versus teams with a winning record.
— Lock It In (@LockItInonFS1) October 24, 2019
After this week, the 49ers won’t either. Jimmy G hasn’t been the same since his ACL tear and eventually, having a struggling QB will cost San Francisco.
Here is Jimmy Garoppolo throwing a deep out in 2019. The ball hangs in the air for 1.4 seconds. Notice the tentative weight transfer and the lack of zip on his throw. pic.twitter.com/htqaStPmXC
— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) October 19, 2019
Against an aggressive Pathers D, I think that moment will come as soon as this week.
Pick: 1 unit on Panthers moneyline (+210)
Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots Odds
|New England Patriots||-13||-670|
*Odds taken 10/25/19
Bill Belichick notoriously schemes to take away what an offense does best. This should work out in Cleveland’s favor, since Freddie Kitchens seems unaware that Nick Chubb is his team’s best weapon.
The #Browns are dedicated to not letting Nick Chubb get meaningful touches. It seriously might be printed on the inside cover of their playbook….
— Jeff Mans (@Jeff_Mans) October 8, 2019
For all the talk of how historically great the Pats D is, we know they’ve played some weak offenses these first seven games. This is the first talent-loaded team they’ve run into and it will be interesting to see how they perform against Chubb, OBJ and Jarvis Landry.
Meanwhile, Myles Garrett should have a huge day here against this unusually suspect Pats o-line.
Tom Brady’s own offensive lineman sacked him. ?♂️ pic.twitter.com/lrJp2oriTE
— Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 15, 2019
New England is ripe for a loss at some point and next weekend in Baltimore looks like a prime spot. But I’ll sprinkle a little on the moneyline here with the hope that New England, like me, is already looking toward next game.
Pick: 0.5 units on the Browns moneyline (+450)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.