Vikings vs Bears Props – MNF Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Week 10
- The Minnesota Vikings clash with the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football (Nov. 16th, 8:15 pm EST)
- Our MNF prop bets were 3-1 in Week 9 (2020 season: +4.02 units)
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Monday Night Football prop bets
Week 9 turned out to be our most profitable Monday Night Football player props card of the season thanks to Cam Newton finding the end zone first against the winless New York Jets.
Now we shift our attention to what projects to be an NFC North slugfest between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears (Nov. 16th, 8:15 pm EST). Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has an abysmal track record on MNF and against the Bears, and he’ll be our first target in the player props market.
Vikings vs Bears Player Props
| Quarterback | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins (MIN) | 27.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 225.5 (Ov +100 | Un -125) | 1.5 (Ov -104 | Un -121) |
| Nick Foles (CHI) | 36.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 270.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 1.5 (Ov -137 | Un +110) |
| Running Backs | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush + Receiving Yards |
| Dalvin Cook (MIN) | 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 86.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 102.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Wide Receivers + Tight Ends | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Adam Thielen (MIN) | 4.5 (Ov +130 | Un -162) | 59.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150) | 53.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) | 24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Allen Robinson (CHI) | N/A | 67.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | N/A |
| Darnell Mooney (CHI) | N/A | 42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Kyle Rudolph (MIN) | N/A | 29.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 15.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
| Jimmy Graham (CHI) | N/A | 35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) | 16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) |
All Odds taken Nov. 15th at DraftKings.
Prop #1: Kirk Cousins Under 1.5 TD passes
It’s surprising that Minnesota is a 3-point favorite given Cousins’ struggles historically against Chicago. Cousins is 0-3 versus the Bears, and has led the Vikings to point totals of 6, 10, and 20 in those three outings. He’s averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt against Chicago, has taken 12 sacks, and has as many turnovers (3) as touchdowns.
Thread: Thoughts on the upcoming Vikings-Bears game…
1. CHI is 5-4; MIN is 3-5. Vikings have STRUGGLED at Soldier Field. Kirk Cousins is 0-9 on Monday Night Football. Mike Zimmer can't beat Matt Nagy.
Yet, the Bears being underdogs in this game seems perfectly spot-on.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 13, 2020
Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday Night Football, while Chicago has done an excellent job at limiting enemy quarterbacks this season. Just one of nine QBs to face the Bears this season has finished higher than a top-19 performer for the week, and only three signal callers (Ryan Tannehill, Drew Brees and Jared Goff) have exceeded one touchdown pass versus Chuck Pagano’s defense this season.
Pick: Kirk Cousins under 1.5 passing TD (-121), 1 unit
Prop #2: Kyle Rudolph Longest Reception Under 15.5 Yards
Our under theme continues with a bet against Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph, who has been afterthought in the Minnesota offense all year. He hasn’t exceeded four targets in a game yet, and the fact that Irv Smith Jr. will be out doesn’t boost his projection that much.
Irv Smith is out for Monday’s game; Cameron Dantzler is questionable. C.J. Ham should be good to go.
— Ben Goessling (@GoesslingStrib) November 14, 2020
Smith Jr. only ran nine routes in Week 9, while Rudolph has played more than 48% of the team’s offensive snaps just once all season. Furthermore, Rudolph is the furthest thing from a big play threat. He runs a 4.78 40 and has a lot of miles on his legs as a veteran of 10 NFL seasons.
Pick: Kyle Rudolph under longest reception 15.5 yards (-112), 1 unit
Vikings vs Bears Scoring Props
| Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Any TD |
|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook (MIN) | +350 | -240 |
| Allen Robinson (CHI) | +750 | +130 |
| Adam Thielen (MIN) | +900 | +150 |
| Jimmy Graham (CHI) | +950 | +165 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | +1100 | +190 |
| Ryan Nall (CHI) | +1200 | +210 |
| Anthony Miller (CHI) | +1200 | +220 |
| Darnell Mooney (CHI) | +1200 | +220 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson (CHI) | +1600 | +300 |
| Kyle Rudolph (MIN) | +1800 | +325 |
| Alexander Mattison (MIN) | +1800 | +325 |
| Kirk Cousin (MIN) | +3500 | +750 |
| Nick Foles (CHI) | +7000 | +1400 |
Prop #3: A-Rob Strikes First
With David Montgomery on the sidelines for this contest, we should expect a more pass heavy approach from Chicago. That should set-up well against Minnesota, who’ve allowed the second most production to opposing wide receivers in 2020.
That’s music to Allen Robinson’s ears, who is by far the lead target in the Bears offense. Robinson has 32 more targets than Chicago’s next closest receiver, and hauled in 9 and 7 catches in two games versus the Vikings in 2019.
Most targets w/o a drop this season:
1. Allen Robinson II – 76
2. Keenan Allen – 71
3. Travis Kelce – 64
4. Davante Adams – 55 pic.twitter.com/bcIdjFLEFI— PFF (@PFF) November 14, 2020
Fellow stud receivers Julio Jones, D.K. Metcalf and Davante Adams have all had multi-touchdown games versus Minnesota this season, setting up Robinson as a nice buy to be the first TD scorer of this contest.
If we want to look a little further down the odds board, Darnell Mooney is an interesting option as well. The rookie out of Tulane is Chicago’s big play threat and is fresh off a career-high 11 targets in Week 9.
FREE DARNELL MOONEY pic.twitter.com/8oOpIdb4Ao
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 2, 2020
Minnesota has allowed the fourth most completions of 20+ yards this season, and Mooney has the explosive speed to get behind this defense.
Picks: Allen Robinson to score first (+750), 0.25 units, Darnell Mooney to score first (+1200), 0.25 units
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
