By Matt McEwan in NFL News
Published:
If you’re not into the slow, methodical approach to betting sports, and don’t want to win $9.09 off your $10 bets, you have landed in the right place. With Sunday of NFL Week 10 here, and 13 games scheduled, I have put together a 4-leg NFL parlay with +3728 odds. I believe I have found some players being seriously underestimated by the sportsbooks in Week 10, and am not betting their traditional over/unders. Instead, I am taking bigger milestones for bigger potential payouts, and also parlaying each of them together.
After analyzing every Week 10 betting market, trend, injury report, weather forecast, and pertinent statistic, I have landed on the four NFL picks below as the best value bets for Sunday. You can find my data-rooted analysis for each parlay leg below as well.
*This is not the best price available on Brissett’s 250+ milestone, but it’s the odds available at the sportsbook with the best odds for the entire parlay.
My favorite NFL parlay for Week 10 has four legs and comes with +3728 odds. This means if you bet $10 on the parlay, you would stand to win $372.80. The sportsbook where you will find these odds is FanDuel. You can get pretty close at bet365 with +3677 odds, but I will always take the better price.
As is always the case, I am also betting each of these legs as singles, and as I mentioned above, there are far better odds to be had on some of these legs after doing some line shopping as straight bets.
If you wanted to take a look at some of these props’ standard lines, we have upgraded our NFL player props tool recently, offering you line shopping capabilities in more player prop markets, the opening lines for each, and more value, while attempting to maintain a positive user-experience and ease of use. You can check it out if you wanted to see more traditional player prop over/unders.
Keep reading for my data-focused justification for each of the four NFL parlay legs below!
Drake Maye has only thrown for 275+ yards in two of nine starts this season. However, the two games he did it in share a common theme: they were the two best run defenses New England has faced this year.
Maye accomplished this feat in Week 1 against the Raiders, who allow the fifth-fewest yards per rushing attempt, and two weeks ago against the Browns, who allow the second-fewest yards per rushing attempt. The Patriots have not faced any of the other defenses in the top third of the league versus the run. But they will face another one in Week 10.
The Buccaneers allow the seventh-fewest yards per rushing attempt, only surrendering 3.88 yards per carry. The Patriots will also be without Rhamondre Stevenson, and after neither TreVeyon Henderson or Terrell Jennings were efficient with their touches last week, when Stevenson also sat out, I don’t expect Josh McDaniels to build a game-plan around the ground game.
Tampa Bay allows the eighth-most gross passing yards per game at 253.1, and this is where I expect McDaniels will look to attack. With some extra opportunity, and an expected high-scoring game where New England is seen as the underdog, I like Maye to throw for 275+ for the third time this season.
The best place to bet this as a single is FanDuel, where you’ll find +188 odds.
Should D’Andre Swift be a surprise inactive today, I would happily bet Kyle Monangai to have a huge game. But at the time of writing this, Swift is expected to play when the Bears take on the Giants today.
There’s a saying in the NFL along the lines of, “you don’t lose your job to injury.” While Bears head coach Ben Johnson has said he will likely ride the hot hand, I believe Swift will get the first opportunity to be that hot hand, and I like him to come through against a horrific Giants run defense. The Giants allow a league-worst 5.47 yards per rushing attempt, and their last three opponents have averaged 192.3 rushing yards per game against them.
Prior to getting injured in Week 8, Swift had been gaining some momentum in the Bears backfield. In the three games following Chicago’s bye week, where they obviously sorted their ground game out, Swift was averaging 92.3 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per attempt. He had rushed for at least 60 yards in two of those three.
Even if Monangai has the better day of the two backs, this Giants defense is bad enough for both to rack up at least 60 rushing yards.
The best line available, at the time of writing this, on Swift for 60+ rushing yards as a single was +152 at FanDuel.
In three starts for the Cardinals this season, Jacoby Brissett is averaging 286.7 passing yards per game, and has gone over 250 passing yards in all three. Kyler Murray was averaging just 192.4 passing yards per game in his five starts. I’m not even sure the difference in passing yards paints the full picture of how much better this Arizona offense has been with Brissett under center.
Brissett can actually see over the offensive linemen, which allows him to properly process what the defense is giving him, anticipate throws, and just generally be on-time. It’s led to the following numbers for Brissett over the four-week stretch since he took over:
He’s doing something we haven’t ever really seen Murray do: take advantage of the pass-catching weapons around him. Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride are both among the top talents at their respective positions, and they’re finally able to showcase their abilities.
I’m betting this continues at least one more week.
The Seahawks, who are taking on the Cardinals in Week 10, allow the fewest yards per rushing attempt in the NFL at just 3.49 per attempt. I don’t think Arizona is going to waste too many plays trying to run the ball against this stingy run defense – Cardinals running backs only managed 44 yards on 11 rushing attempts when these two teams met in Week 4. Seattle has allowed the 12th-most gross passing yards per game, though, and Murray even managed to total 200 passing yards against them earlier this season.
I think Arizona’s only hope of keeping up in this game is to throw the ball, and if they don’t manage to, then they’ll just keep throwing it with a negative game script.
If you want to bet this as a single as well, bet365 has the best odds at +150.
Amon-Ra St Brown has only achieved 90+ receiving yards in three of eight games this season, but he has played some of the league’s better defenses throughout the first half of the season, including the Packers, Browns, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Vikings. But that will not be the case in Week 10, when the Lions take on the Commanders.
Washington is allowing the third-most gross passing yards per game, and third-most total net yards per play. Things have been even worse over the last three weeks for the Commanders, as they are being picked apart through the air, allowing an average of 297.7 passing yards per game – Sam Darnold just threw for 330 yards against them last week.
I believe Jared Goff will have similar success today, and the primary beneficiary will be St Brown. There is not a corner on Washington’s roster who has a hope of covering him, and Detroit does a great job getting ARSB the ball.
St Brown ranks:
While the reliable receiver is not been much of a deep threat, or elite with the ball in his hands, Washington is a defense that struggles to make tackles. Dan Quinn’s squad is missing 12% of their tackles, third-worst in the NFL. So, I do think there’s some serious potential for ARSB to rack up some YAC in this one.
The best odds you’ll find on this as a single are +142 at FanDuel.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
Updated: 26 minutes ago
