Week 11 Monday Night Football Props (Chiefs vs Rams)

• The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football for Week 11
• Which players are primed for big games in this potential Super Bowl preview?
• Is there value on betting these teams keeping the game close?

Week 11’s Monday Night Football matchup features the 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs and the 9-1 Los Angeles Rams. We dig into the prop cards to find the three best bets for MNF.

Prop #1: Todd Gurley To Have At Least 1 Rushing TD & Robert Woods To Have At Least 1 Receiving TD

All odds taken on 11/19/18.

Monday night’s game total of 63.5 is the highest total in NFL history since record-keeping began in 1986. Bookies are surely expecting a ton of points to be scored, and with so many weapons on both teams, it’s hard not see points from just about every offensive player.

In this week’s edition of Next Gen Stats Hidden Numbers, find out how Todd Gurley and the Rams offense will look to take advantage of the Chiefs defense on the ground out of 11 Personnel.https://t.co/QaBOOsm2QQ pic.twitter.com/BSVDkFH5Um

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 15, 2018

Any prop involving LA simply has to begin with Todd Gurley. The man has been a fantasy machine by registering a touchdown in every single game this year.

Gurley has rushing TDs in seven of ten games. He’s also registered two and three rushing TD days twice each. The league’s leading rusher should see plenty of action against a KC defense which ranks 22nd in rush defense.

Gurley Rush TDs vs Woods Rec TDs

Of course the value has long been sucked out Gurley props so I’ll look to add Robert Woods into the mix to score a receiving TD.

Check out the chart above and it may look like Woods is struggling in 2018. However, he did score three times earlier this season. Woods leads the Rams in both targets and receptions. He’s also the tenth-leading receiver in the entire league.

Percentage of games with at least 4 receptions and 70 yards over the last two combined seasons:

DeAndre Hopkins -75%
Michael Thomas – 72%
Julio Jones – 68%
Odell Beckham – 67%
Adam Thielen – 64%
Robert Woods (!) – 64%
Antonio Brown – 61%

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 12, 2018

Woods should be in line to see even more of the ball with Jared Goff’s security blanket Cooper Kupp out for the season with a torn ACL. Kupp led all Rams’ receivers with six TDs, so those red zone looks will now have to be dispersed elsewhere.

Pick: Todd Gurley To Have At Least 1 Rushing TD & Robert Woods To Have At Least 1 Receiving TD

Prop #2: Travis Kelce To Have At Least 1 Receiving TD and At Least 75 Receiving Yards

Now let’s focus on something for the Chiefs’ fans. Whether you pick WR Tyreek Hill or TE Travis Kelce you should do ok with receiving props. However, Kelce offers slightly better value so I’ll pick the league’s 12th-leading receiver to find the end zone.

Kelce has the second-most receiving TDs on the Chiefs with six and has scored three times over the past three games.

In three of the past five games he has eclipsed 75 yards, which is just around his average of 78.7 YPG.

Travis Kelce Rec TDs vs Rec Yards Last 5 Games

From Weeks 1-5, Kelce had another two-TD performance in Week 2 and added a single score in Week 4. In four of those five weeks he would’ve surpassed the 75-yard mark and three of those weeks he turned in 100-plus yard days.

Travis Kelce continues to deliver after the catch. pic.twitter.com/St3QVCrfvp

— PFF (@PFF) November 17, 2018

Pick: Travis Kelce To Have At Least 1 Receiving TD and At Least 75 Receiving Yards

Prop #3: 3 Straight Scores by Either Team – NO

The problem is neither team is elite defensively and each allow more than their fair share of points. In the case of KC, they allow the fourth-most YPG overall. Each team is also tied at 24th in yards per play allowed.

63.5 is the highest total in NFL history. The game will be played in LA where the Rams average 34.4 PPG. The Chiefs are tops in the NFL in road scoring at 36.8 PPG. 14 games in the history of the NFL have had totals of 58+ points, 11 of those went Over:https://t.co/6dNr480h2k pic.twitter.com/B0f4PhXmSQ

— Covers (@Covers) November 14, 2018

Certainly either team could go on a run and score three straight. But in what I see as a game much like a boxing match with two heavyweights going blow-for-blow, I see a lot of value on betting NO.

Pick: 3 Straight Scores by Either Team – NO