By Matt McEwan in NFL News
Published:
Week 11 of the 2025-26 NFL season continues on Sunday with 13 games played across four different windows, thanks to the Dolphins vs Commanders game being played in Spain. While that’s not exactly a matchup every NFL fan is going to be extremely excited about, with both teams struggling, Week 11 does bring some great matchups to the table, including but not limited to the Buccaneers vs Bills, Seahawks vs Rams, Chiefs vs Broncos, and Lions vs Eagles (SNF).
With this many games spread across the entire day, I have rounded up my favorite NFL picks and loaded them up into a parlay that spans across all four blocks of football. I have found a handful of NFL betting markets where data suggests sportsbooks are significantly underestimating certain players/teams. You can see these picks below in the two NFL parlays I am betting this week – one parlay is more of a longshot with 31-1 odds, while the other is a safer +320 parlay.
My favorite longshot NFL parlay for Sunday comes with +3097 odds if you play it at bet365, which had (by far) the best odds at the time of writing. This parlay includes the four legs above, each of which come with plus-odds.
I also like betting each of these legs as straights as well. I detail the best odds you can find on each leg in my data-focused justifications below. If you want to shop for the best odds on standard over/unders, check out our NFL player props tool.
For what it’s worth, I hit two of four legs last week, winning 1.02 units. I was five yards shy of making it three of four.
Few people had more confidence in Jacory Croskey-Merritt not only taking over the Commanders backfield this year, but putting together a great season. That looked really promising after he carved up the Chargers defense in Week 5, which was the first time the team committed to him as the lead back. However, it has been pretty rough for JCM since then.
Here’s a look at his recent performances:
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Last 5 Games
Croskey-Merritt has averaged just 37.4 rushing yards per game in his last five, on an abysmal 3.0 yards per carry. I am able to overlook the last three, since the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions rank 17th, 3rd, and 10th in rushing yards allowed per attempt. The Dallas one is tough, as they rank 24th.
However, the rookie is going to get a great opportunity to right the ship in Week 11, as he takes on a Dolphins defense that allows 4.92 rushing yards per attempt, the 5th-worst in the NFL. Croskey-Merritt is still seeing 38.2% of the Commanders’ rush attempts, which is a little deflated due to how often their quarterbacks run the ball.
I appreciate that Washington appeared to be leaning Chris Rodriguez last week, and the bulk of Croskey-Merritt’s rushing attempts didn’t come until the second half when Rodriguez left the game due to injury, but Rodriguez had 16 yards on six carries.
I do not believe the Commanders are a team who feels their season is over yet, in spite of sportsbooks saying it is. Their best chance at beating Miami this weekend is to run the ball effectively – Marcus Mariota is not beating many teams with his arm anymore. The Commanders run the ball on 47.5% of their offensive snaps, the 5th-highest percentage in the league, and I think we’ll see an even more favorable split towards the run as a result of their opponent.
The other positive here is that I do not believe Miami’s offense can run the score up on Washington the way Dallas did in Week 7. So, I like JCM to take better advantage of the attempts he does receive, and believe he’ll be able to average far better than 3.0 YPC against this defense.
If you’re not already betting with bet365, take advantage of our bonus code when signing up now to tail this pick with the best odds available (+170).
Jaylen Warren has only achieved 80+ rushing yards in 1 of 8 games this season. But I’m betting him to do so in Week 11, largely because of how bad this Bengals defense is. When he played them in Week 7, he had his best game of the season, racking up 127 rushing yards on 16 rushing attempts.
One of the issues for Warren this season has been limited touches, even when he is running the ball well. The Steelers RB has seen fewer than 15 carries in 5 of 8 games. Even head coach Mike Tomlin is aware they need to get Warren more touches. The caveat to Tomlin’s comments were that the Steelers need to win more on third downs. Pittsburgh converts just 36% of their 3rd downs, which is 26th in the NFL, and they average a league-worst five plays per drive – also a league-worst plays per game.
The good news for Warren in Week 11 is that Cincinnati allows their opponents to convert on 49.1% of their 3rd downs, the second-worst mark in the league, which is largely the result of their opponents only facing an average of 5.89 yards-to-go on 3rd downs, which is the worst in the NFL. When these two teams met in Week 7, the Steelers converted on 7-of-10 third downs.
The other big positive for Warren’s outlook is the Bengals missing 15.3% of their tackles, also a league-worst number. Cincinnati is especially bad defending the run, allowing 5.35 rushing yards per attempt, third-worst, and an average of 166.4 rushing yards per game, which is the worst in the league by more than 14 yards per game.
With Aaron Rodgers struggling to consistently attack defenses with his arm, and this feeling like a bit of a must-win game for the Steelers, as the Ravens are just one game back in the division, I like Pittsburgh to lean on their most reliable offensive player: Jaylen Warren. I think he’ll be touching the ball plenty on early downs and will average 5+ yards per carry.
If you want to bet this as a single as well, as I always do, bet365 had the best odds at the time of writing.
Though he has yet to record a really big game in terms of yardage yet, Rashee Rice has been very good since rejoining the Chiefs in Week 7. Rice is averaging 8.7 targets per game (T12th). He sees a target on 31% of his offensive snaps, which only trails Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua among WRs with more than 5 targets this season.
He has at least achieved 80+ receiving yards in two of three games this season. Here’s a quick look at Rice’s three games since returning from suspension:
One thing to note is that Rice only played 40.7% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in his first game back. He has been over 80% in each of the other two.
A big reason for liking Rice this week is his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands. The Chiefs WR averages 37.7 yards after catch per game, which is third-best in the league. With Denver playing a lot of man-coverage, I think there will be opportunity for some big YAC if Rice breaks the first tackle.
I like Rice to see a lot of targets in this one – I actually think Andy Reid will build the game-plan around him. The key to beating Denver’s defense is either a QB who can extend plays, or wide receivers who can create separation quickly (and a QB who can execute quick-game). Rice is one of the league’s best examples of the latter. With no Patrick Surtain II, there isn’t a corner on the Broncos who can cover Rice, and I think he’ll burn them for big chunks a few times.
If you want to bet this leg as a single as well, it is the only one where bet365 does not have the best price. FanDuel was offering +116 odds for Rice to record 80+ receiving yards at the time of writing.
Before we crown Dan Campbell some kind of elite offensive play-caller, let’s pause and remember they were playing an awful Commanders defense. However, there were noticeable differences between his play-calling and John Morton’s. The two most notable changes for the purpose of betting Jahmyr Gibbs props this week were: (1) there was a better flow to the offense, and (2) he prioritized getting Gibbs quality touches, where he had some space to work with.
I think we’ll see both of those on display again in Week 11 when they take on another top NFC contender in the Eagles.
To this point, Gibbs has only rushed for 70+ yards in 4 of 9 games this season, but has done so in two of his last three. He accomplished this feat in 11 of 17 games last season.
The Eagles have been pretty average against the run this season, allowing 4.37 rushing yards per attempt, which is 13th-most in the league. To Philadelphia’s credit, they have only allowed their opponent’s lead back to rush for 70+ yards in four of nine games this season. However, if you dig into that a little bit, the circumstances make it a little less impressive. Here are the RBs who did not achieve at least 70+ yards on the ground against the Eagles:
To be clear, I am not here to say the Eagles defense is horrible against the run. I just believe 70+ rushing yards is a very attainable milestone for one of the league’s best RBs, who may benefit from a new play-caller moving forward.
If you also like this as a straight bet, bet365 had the best odds at +140 when I wrote this.
This safer NFL parlay for Sunday is best played at DraftKings, where you’ll find +320 as the best odds. None of these are standard lines, so in order to find the first one (team total), navigate through the Texans vs Titans matchup and then scroll the aux menu all the way to the end to “team props.” The second and third legs follow the same first step of navigating through the matchups, and then click on “game lines” in the menu.
If you’re not currently betting with DraftKings, be sure to claim our signup bonus before registering.
You can see my data-backed justification for each of the three high-probability NFL parlay legs below.
These two teams played in Week 4 and the Texans held the Titans scoreless. Tennessee has scored more than 17 points in just four of nine games this season, and average a league-low 14.4 points per game. The Texans have allowed more than 17.5 points in just four of nine, and only allow an average of 16.7 points per game, the fewest in the NFL.
I appreciate the Titans are coming off their bye, but I don’t think one extra week is enough for interim head coach Mike McCoy to solve Tennessee’s problems.
I also like this bet because Houston’s offense hasn’t had an easy time scoring points themselves. They only average 22.7 points per game, and managed 26 against Tennessee back in Week 4. So, I don’t suspect we’ll see much garbage time where the Texans ease up.
When these two teams played earlier in the season, the Ravens crushed the Browns 41-17. That was with Joe Flacco under center for Cleveland as well, who I think is likely more suited to beat this Baltimore defense than rookie Dillon Gabriel.
The Browns have been hanging around some games this season because of their great defense. They are very good against the run and Myles Garrett is the favorite to win NFL DPOY, largely because of his dominance rushing the passer. However, Lamar Jackson’s athleticism neutralizes this defense.
In Ravens win this season, their smallest margin of victory is 8 points. That came last week against a pretty decent Vikings team. I don’t believe the Browns are a decent team.
Baltimore is getting healthy and preparing for a playoff push. I don’t think Cleveland gives them much trouble on Sunday. However, I did tease the spread a little to get through the key number 7.
In spite of what records say, I do not believe the Broncos are in the same category as the Chiefs, which the sportsbooks are suggesting in the Super Bowl odds as well. While Denver’s defense is often the focus, Kansas City’s defense is also very good. I think the two units are much closer than the average fan may think.
Where I give the Chiefs the massive advantage in this game is on the offensive side of the ball. Here’s a quick look at how these two teams stack up against each other:
Chiefs vs Broncos Stats Comparison
What the stats comparison above does not fully detail is how much Bo Nix is struggling right now. He is simply not seeing the field the way Sean Payton wants him to, is consistently missing open receivers deep down the field, and is panicking under pressure. Nix has posted a passer rating below 70 in each of his last two starts, one of which came against an average-at-best Raiders defense. This is not a QB playing with confidence
The one bit of stability Denver’s offense had was JK Dobbins, who is unlikely to play this week, leaving RJ Harvey, who has seen limited snaps because of his struggles in pass protection, and Tyler Badie to handle the RB duties. I don’t like the Broncos offense to enjoy much success on Sunday.
On the other side of the football, as I discussed above, not having Patrick Surtain II for this one is going to hurt. The key to beating Denver’s defense has been either: (1) having a QB who can maneuver well in the pocket and escape pressure to extend plays, or (2) have multiple receivers that can create separation quickly. I think the Chiefs have both of those things, and I believe Rashee Rice is going to give Riley Moss, or whoever else is stuck covering him, problems all day.
Yes, the Broncos played the Chiefs well last season, but keep in mind Kansas City was without Rice for the first game, Xavier Worthy had not really taken off in the offense yet when they played for the first time, and the Chiefs rested everyone for the second game. I think the Chiefs really humble the Broncos on Sunday.
I did tease this spread a little, though, as I wanted to get through the key number of 3.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
Updated: 9 hours ago
