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Week 15 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, December 19

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Dec 18, 2021 · 12:39 PM PST

Diontae Johnson runs after the catch
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (18) plays in an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Don Wright)
  • Week 15 NFL player props have opened at online sportsbooks
  • There are seven player props Matt McEwan is targeting for Sunday of Week 15
  • See all the NFL props below and Matt’s best bets

Week 15 of the NFL season is officially a mess. With many players on the NFL’s COVID list, we’ve now seen one of Saturday’s games and two of Sunday’s games get pushed back a couple days to allow for players to clear protocols. However, we are still left with ten games on Sunday, December 19.

A couple of those games are still lacking available prop markets as certain player’s statuses remain uncertain, namely Lamar Jackson. With fewer player props available, I just had to dive a little deeper for Week 15. I only have seven player props I’m betting for Sunday of Week 15, a little load than normal. But I feel good about them, nonetheless!

I went 7-4 on my Week 14 player props to win 3.61 units. I’m now +7.93 units in my last nine weeks. You’ll find my picks below in each section, as well as all the lines for each set of NFL player props.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Mac Jones (NE) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 232.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155)
Carson Wentz (IND) 19.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 221.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165)
Dak Prescott (DAL) 278.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -205 | Un +150)
Mike Glennon (NYG) 196.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 0.5 (Ov -210 | Un +155)
Davis Mills (HOU) 20.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 222.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +170 | Un -235)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 19.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 210.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) 1.5 (Ov +155 | Un -210)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 215.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -180)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 260.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Kyler Murray (ARI) 22.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 256.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -195 | Un +145)
Jared Goff (DET) 21.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 210.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +165 | Un -225)
Josh Allen (BUF) 23.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 260.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125)
Zach Wilson (NYJ) 19.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 211.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 0.5 (Ov -255 | Un +185)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 23.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 251.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)
Joe Burrow (CIN) 21.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 259.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 233.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Matt Ryan (ATL) 20.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 230.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -180)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 21.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 248.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un -125)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 278.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -185)

All props as of December 18.

Looking to the first two blocks of games on Sunday, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers are tied for the largest passing line at 278.5. Mike Glennon has the lowest at 196.5.

Best Passing Props to Bet for Week 15

1) Trevor Lawrence OVER 210.5 Passing Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

In my opinion, addition by subtraction is the name of the game for Jacksonville in Week 15, as they fired head coach Urban Meyer. I do understand that interim head coach Darrell Bevell has spoken quite a bit about James Robinson since being given the lead role, and I do believe the second-year back will be much more featured.

However, I think that will benefit the entire offense, namely Trevor Lawrence. Robinson is also a weapon in the passing attack with the ability to really rack up yards after catch. Getting Robinson going on the ground, which shouldn’t be too difficult against the worst rushing defense in the league, will also give Bevell more confidence using play action.

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Though I believe we’ll see fewer pass attempts from Lawrence in Week 15 than we’ve become accustomed to as the Jags have largely played from behind all season, I like him to be a lot more efficient with the pass attempts. The first-overall pick from the 2021 NFL Draft threw for 221 yards last week and went for 332 when these two teams met in Week 1.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 67.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 840.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 19.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 96.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 120.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Saquon Barkley (NYG) 52.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
James Robinson (JAX) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 103.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) 50.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Najee Harris (PIT) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 95.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Kyler Murray (ARI) 6.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 32.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) 42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 55.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Josh Allen (BUF) 6.5 (Ov -102 | Un -130) 31.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 70.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Joe Mixon (CIN) 68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) 48.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 83.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Jeff Wilson Jr (SF) 60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
AJ Dillon (GB) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

Though he has fallen well short of this number in six of his last seven, James Robinson’s 82.5 rushing yards over/under is the highest for Sunday. Jonathan Taylor is seeing a bigger number, but he plays Saturday night.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Week 15

1) AJ Dillon OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-113); risk 0.33 units

If Tyler Huntley is forced under center for the Baltimore Ravens, which it sounds like he will be, I don’t foresee them hanging around very long against the Packers in Week 15. Green Bay is up to 7-point favorites against Baltimore now.

The Ravens secondary is very banged up, missing Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, among others, but are also likely to be without Calais Campbell as well. With Aaron Rodgers coming to town, I like John Harbaugh and Don Martindale to try and give their defensive backs some help in coverage. The result will be some extra room for AJ Dillon to pound away.

Dillon has gone over this rushing total in each of his last two games and four of his last six. He’s also averaging 16.8 carries in his last four games. With Green Bay likely to be facing a positive game script, I foresee upwards of 20 carries for Dillon in this one, a feat he has accomplished in two of those last four games.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 4.5 (Ov +108 | Un -138) 44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 2.5 (Ov -146 | Un +114) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Michael Pittman (IND) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
T.Y. Hilton (IND) 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 29.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135) 16.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 67.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Dalton Schultz (DAL) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 16.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Evan Engram (NYG) 26.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Kenny Golladay (NYG) 36.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 44.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 4.5 (Ov -165 | Un +120) 61.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Nico Collins (HOU) 2.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 31.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 16.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Laviska Shenault Jr (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un -110) 36.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Marvin Jones Jr (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -135 | Un +100) 45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Julio Jones (TEN) 4.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Nick Westbrook (TEN) 2.5 (Ov -185 | Un +135) 34.5 (Ov -120 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Chase Claypool (PIT) 4.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 6.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 78.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
A.J. Green (ARI) 3.5 (Ov -154 | Un +116) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Christian Kirk (ARI) 4.5 (Ov +112 | Un -148) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
DJ Moore (CAR) 4.5 (Ov -148 | Un +112) 49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Cole Beasley (BUF) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -102) 45.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Dawson Knox (BUF) 3.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 38.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 16.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 6.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) 4.5 (Ov +124 | Un -166) 42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Ryan Griffin (NYJ) 19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
DeVante Parker (MIA) 5.5 (Ov +134 | Un -180) 54.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 4.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114) 45.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 4.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 5.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) 66.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115) 43.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Tim Patrick (DEN) 3.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) 27.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Kyle Pitts (ATL) 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +115) 45.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Russell Gage (ATL) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 53.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 20.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -140) 52.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 40.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
George Kittle (SF) 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Davante Adams (GB) 90.5 (Ov -105 | Un -140) 27.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)

Davante Adams has the largest receiving over/under for Week 15 at 90.5. The next closest is Diontae Johnson at 78.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Week 15

1) Laquon Treadwell OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

I thought Week 14 would be the last time we get a very low line on Laquon Treadwell’s receiving yards, but here we are. The only reason I’m not hitting this one much harder is because of the coaching change in Jacksonville.

Treadwell has gone over this total in each of his last three, and is averaging 6.3 targets per game in that span. He had never played more than 35% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps before Week 11, and has now played in at least 80% in each of the last three weeks.

2) Diontae Johnson OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards (-113); risk 0.5 units

I haven’t been overly confident trusting Ben Roethlisberger to carve up any defense, even a bad one, since 2018. But there has been one consistent aspect to the Steelers passing offense in the last two years: Diontae Johnson getting targets.

Johnson has now seen double digit targets in five straight games and ten of his 12 games this season. He’s often turned those targets into big outings, going over 78 yards in four of his last five and five of his last seven.

The Titans rank 22nd against the pass and simply do not have any corner who can cover Johnson’s quicks—not many teams do. With Tennessee only giving up 4.0 yards per carry this season (eighth-best), I like Pittsburgh to look to Johnson early and often through the air in what’s looking like a must-win for the Steelers.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +600 -105
Kendrick Bourne (NE) +1000 +180
Hunter Henry (NE) +1200 +220
Jonathan Taylor (IND) +380 -250
Michael Pittman (IND) +900 +155
T.Y. Hilton (IND) +1400 +300
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) +500 -140
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +700 +110
Amari Cooper (DAL) +850 +140
Saquon Barkley (NYG) +1000 +150
Sterling Shepard (NYG) +1600 +260
Kenny Golladay (NYG) +1800 +310
David Johnson (HOU) +1100 +210
Brandin Cooks (HOU) +1100 +210
Rex Burkhead (HOU) +1700 +330
James Robinson (JAX) +600 +105
Laviska Shenault Jr (JAX) +850 +165
Marvin Jones Jr (JAX) +850 +165
D’Onta Foreman (TEN) +850 +150
Julio Jones (TEN) +1100 +200
Nick Westbrook (TEN) +1100 +200
Najee Harris (PIT) +600 -105
Diontae Johnson (PIT) +800 +140
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) +1100 +190
James Conner (ARI) +450 -190
Eno Benjamin (ARI) +1800 +300
Chase Edmonds (ARI) +850 +120
Craig Reynolds (DET) +1000 +150
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) +1700 +260
Kalif Raymond (DET) +1800 +310
Cam Newton (CAR) +1000 +175
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) +1200 +190
DJ Moore (CAR) +1400 +240
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +700 +110
Josh Allen (BUF) +750 +115
Devin Singletary (BUF) +850 +150
Tevin Coleman (NYJ) +1000 +180
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) +1500 +180
Keelan Cole (NYJ) +1700 +310
DeVante Parker (MIA) +650 +115
Duke Johnson Jr (MIA) +800 +140
Myles Gaskin (MIA) +800 +140
Joe Mixon (CIN) +600 -105
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +700 +125
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1200 +240
Javonte Williams (DEN) +550 -115
Melvin Gordon (DEN) +700 +120
Mike Boone (DEN) +1100 +220
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) +700 +100
Kyle Pitts (ATL) +1300 +220
Russell Gage (ATL) +1600 +280
Jeff Wilson Jr (SF) +500 -135
Deebo Samuel (SF) +550 -140
George Kittle (SF) +600 -115

Jonathan Taylor has the best odds to score a touchdown in Week 15 at -250. If we are just looking to players for Sunday, Chase Edmonds has -190 odds to score a touchdown. He also has the best odds to score his respective game’s first touchdown at +450.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Week 15

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

  1. James Robinson anytime touchdown (+105): new interim head coach Darrell Bevell is going to utilize Robinson as the team’s workhorse back, and I like him to find the endzone for the first time since Week 11. The Texans have the worst rush defense in the league and have given up the second-most touchdowns on the ground. (1 unit)
  2. Cordarrelle Patterson anytime touchdown (+120): though we haven’t seen Patterson play more than 50% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps since Week 9, he has still been pretty efficient when in the game. Patterson has a touchdown in six of 12 games and two of his last three. (0.33 units)
  3. Mark Andrews anytime touchdown (+195): Whether it’s Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley under center, both like their big tight end, especially in the red zone. Andrews has a touchdown in three of his last five and has seen double sigit targets in four of his last six. (0.25 units)
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