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Week 16 NFL Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, December 26

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Dec 25, 2021 · 3:23 PM PST

Derek Carr, Quarterback, Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) plays against the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • NFL player props for Week 16 are available at sportsbooks
  • Matt McEwan has seven props he’s betting on Sunday
  • See the best player props to bet below

Though we have 12 games to bet on Sunday of Week 16, it’s tough to find available player props for many of them due to injuries and COVID. NFL player props have opened for some games, and I’ve found a handful I really like.

I went 3-4 in Week 15, winning 0.32 units. I’m now +8.25 units in my last ten weeks. You’ll find my picks below in each section.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Prop Line Pick (Odds)
Derek Carr (LV) Passing Yards 252.5 Over (-110)

All props as of December 25.

Derek Carr OVER 252.5 Passing Yards (-110); risk 0.5 units

Derek Carr has only gone over this total in two of his last five games. He will also likely be without Darren Waller for the fourth straight game when he takes on the Broncos on Sunday.

However, Carr carved up this Broncos secondary in Week 6 to the tune of 341 yards. He has also thrown for 371, 165 (not a competitive game), 391, 259, 167, 288, and 253 in his previous seven starts against Denver.

He’s only gone under this total twice in his last eight starts vs the Broncos.

Denver has not allowed a quarterback to go over this total since Week 12, but none of those QBs were Bronco-killer Derek Carr.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Prop Line Pick (Odds)
Miles Sanders Rushing Yard 57.5 Over (-115)

Miles Sanders OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115); risk 1 unit

I understand Miles Sanders did not practice all week and may not be at 100% health. However, Sanders has rushed fr 120 and 131 yards in his last two games.

He has surpassed this total in four straight now. One of those games came against the Giants, who he plays against this week again, when he rushed for 64 yards on just nine carries.

The Eagles have finally realized over the last two weeks they should give arguably their most dangerous offensive weapon the ball more. Sanders has carried the ball 24 and 18 times in the last two weeks. Those are his top two games in terms of carries, and has seen less than ten rushing attempts in five games this season.

The Giants also allow 4.4 yards per carry (20th) this season, so I don’t even think Sanders would need a super heavy workload to surpass this number.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Prop Line Pick (Odds)
Courtland Sutton (DEN) Receiving Yards 27.5 Over (-115)

Courtland Sutton OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

Courtland Sutton has been essentially non-existent over the last six weeks. The most receiving yards he has recorded in that span has been 29 yards. Every other game has been less than 18 yards.

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I foresee Sutton returning to relevancy with Drew Lock preparing to start against the Raiders in Week 16. We know Lock likes to push the ball downfield more, and he also hasn’t shown much chemistry with Jerry Jeudy.

This is a number Sutton could easily eclipse in one catch. In Week 6 he went for 94 yards against this Las Vegas defense.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score Any TD
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +130
Odell Beckham Jr (LAR) +180
Antonio Brown (TB) +120
Mark Andrews (BAL) +175

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

  1. Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+130): Jefferson has a touchdown in each of his last three, and five total in his last five games. He has eight this season in 14 games. I appreciate that he’s playing a Rams defense who has only allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season, but Jefferson is different. He’s as short as -135 at some books. (0.33 units)
  2. Odell Beckham Jr anytime touchdown (+180): OBJ has a touchdown in three of his last four games with the Rams. He’s clearly someone Sean McVay wants to utilize in the red zone. We shouldn’t be getting these odds. (0.33 units)
  3. Antonio Brown anytime touchdown (+120): No Chris Godwin and likely no Mike Evans. Antonio Brown is going to see a lot of targets. He’s as short as -135 at FanDuel, but you can find these odds at DraftKings. (0.25 units)
  4. Mark Andrews anytime touchdown (+175): Andrews has a touchdown in six of 14 games this season, and three touchdowns in his last two games. Whether it’s Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, or Josh Johnson, Andrews is a red zone favorite. (0.25 units)
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