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Week 18 NFL Player Props – Best Player Props to Bet

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Jan 8, 2023 · 9:53 AM PST

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham
Jan 1, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham (3) rushes against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
  • Online sportsbooks have released Week 18 player props for the final weekend of NFL regular season play
  • Player props picks on Jarrett Stidham, Kenneth Walker and for players chasing bonus money this weekend
  • See all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines, as well as touchdown odds, plus our best player prop picks below

In Week 18, there are many things in the balance. Playoff spots, seedings, byes, draft positions and even player bonuses. All of this comes into play when making our top NFL player props for Week 18.

There are several players chasing incentives in Week 18, some of which we’ll include in our top player props this weekend.

While not included in our top picks below it’s worth noting that some players are chasing down records as well in Week 18. Patrick Mahomes is “just” 430 yards away from passing Peyton Manning’s single-season passing record of 5,477 yards.

On the receiving end, Vikings’ WR Justin Jefferson is 194 yards shy of breaking the single-season receiving yardage record of 1,964 set by Calvin Johnson. Both are certainly capable of doing so but would need monster days in Week 18 to reach those numbers. They could still be worth a play in your Week 18 props though.

Our NFL season record so far after Week 17 is 76-75.

Read on for our top Week 18 NFL player props.

Week 18 NFL Player Props

Prop Odds Risk
Jarrett Sitdham over 240.5 passing yards -115 1 unit
Kenneth Walker III over 75.5 rushing yards -115 1 unit
Christian Kirk over 58.5 receiving yards -130 1 unit
DeVonta Smith over 65.5 receiving yards -115 1 unit
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown -155 1 unit

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Our top Week 18 NFL player props above include plays on Jarrett Stidham, Kenneth Walker III, Christian Kirk, Travis Kelce and DeVonta Smith.

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Week 18 Passing Prop – Jarrett Stidham Passing Yards

With Mahomes chasing the record books, he may seem like the more obvious choice for NFL player props this week. However, even against a Raiders’ defense ranked 29th in passing yards allowed, reaching 430 yards is still a tall task. Now, he won’t need that many to exceed his passing yardage prop of 323.5, but even that is still tough to reach.

So, instead, let’s look Jarrett Stidham’s way in the passing yardage props. Stidham just threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns last week. That came against the 49ers’ second-ranked defense.

The Chiefs are not the 49ers on defense, far from it. They’re 25th in scheduled-adjusted pass efficiency since Week 13. In recent weeks they’ve allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 247 and 222 yards.

Mahomes should still put up impressive numbers this week as KC chases first overall in the AFC. And if he does, KC likely pulls away, as the 9-point spread would suggest. That’s fine by us as all that means is Stidham will be forced to play from behind and huck the ball around to Davante Adams and co, racking up the passing the yards.

Prop Pick: Jarrett Stidham over 240.5 passing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 18 Rushing Prop – Kenneth Walker III Rushing Yards

There is lots to play for in Week 18 for both the Seahawks as a team and also Kenneth Walker III personally.

First and foremost, Seattle needs to win for the playoffs on Sunday afternoon at home to the Rams. A home date against a 5-11 team that is also 1-6 on the road should be a gift for Pete Carroll’s team.

When it comes to personal milestones, Walker is just 64 yards away from cracking the 1,000 yard mark in his rookie season. It’s a mark he’s been rumbling towards with a fury in the past weeks finishing with 133 and 107 yards in his past two games.

Prop Pick: Kenneth Walker III over 75.5 rushing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Week 18 Receiving Prop – Christian Kirk Receiving Yards

You can take your pick of Jaguars receivers to bet in the props this weekend. Both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are two catches away from making a $500k (Kirk) and $250k (Jones) bonus.

Even more money is on the line for yardage as well. Kirk pockets another $500k for hitting 1,100 receiving yards of which he sits at 1,009. Jones also gets $500k for hitting 900 yards, of which he has 802.

Both players’ receptions props are set at 4.5 this week. And both should have plenty of opportunities to help the Jags top the Titans and to hopefully add a few more sheckels to their own wallets in the process.

Tennessee may be strong against the run (2nd in yards allowed), but they’re 32nd against the pass. Safety Amani Hooker and CB Kristian Fulton are also both listed as questionable.

To hit their yardage incentives, Kirk needs 91 yards and Jones 98. Kirk hasn’t hit that total in any of the past four weeks, and Jones only once in five games.

Even from a receptions standpoint, Kirk has just 2 and 3 receptions and Jones 3 and 1 in the past two games.

However, when the Jaguars last played the Titans earlier this season, Jones had eight catches for 77 yards and Kirk five catches for 45.

The focus is clearly on the playoffs and not padding these guys’ stats but surely one or both will have a big day. I’ll back the lower target of 58.5 receiving yards for Kirk in my NFL player props.

Prop Pick: Christian Kirk over 58.5 receiving yards (-130); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 18 Receiving Prop – DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards

Only one player saw more targets than DeVonta Smith’s 13 last week. Smith saw 12 targets in Week 16 and hasn’t seen fewer than eight targets since Week 9.  That’s resulted in him pulling down five or more catches in seven of those past eight games.

Last week Smith caught nine passes for 115 yards and in Week 16 he caught eight passes for 113 yards and two scores. He’s now totaled over 100 yards in three straight games and also in four of five.

The Eagles still need to lock up first place in the NFC and are playing against a Giants team with nothing to play for this week. With his current form, the Eagles needing to win and the possibility of the Giants resting some players at some point in this game, I’ll back Smith to go over his Week 18 receiving yardage prop.

Prop Pick: Davonte Smith over 65.5 receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 18 Touchdown Prop – Travis Kelce Anytime TD

When the Chiefs and Raiders last played back on October 10, Patrick Mahomes threw for 292 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-29 win. What’s special about those four touchdowns? Well, all four of them went to tight end Travis Kelce. He scored those four TDs on just seven catches and 25 yards.

Kelce has 12 scores on the season but he’s been allergic to the endzone of late for touchdown prop players. He’s failed to record a TD in any of the past five weeks, but against a Raiders’ defense giving up the fourth-most yards against the pass and that’s ranked 28th in opponent red zone scoring, I’m backing Kelce to end that streak in Week 18.

Prop Pick: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-155); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook

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