Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Patriots Are a Lock After Losing

• See our three against the spread locks for Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season
• Find the spreads and picks for every game of the week
• Season record = 3-2-1

After bursting out of the gate to a solid 2-0-1 start, I stumbled a little in Week 2. The Saints disappointed again and the 49ers didn’t beat up on the Lions the way I expected, leaving me at 1-2 for the week and 3-2-1 for the season.

Based off $100 wagers, we’re still up $144.77. But let’s get to adding to it.

Week 3 NFL Against the Spread Locks

Pick #1: Patriots Are Too Good After Losing

*Odds taken 9/21
Anytime the New England Patriots lose a game, bettors should be jumping for joy. Since 2003, the Pats are a remarkable 44-7 straight-up after a loss, and and 38-13 against the spread – with a ridiculous ATS +/- of +7.7 in those games.

The unlucky team who will deal with the Patriots frustrations this week is the Detroit Lions, who are now coached by former Pats DC Matt Patricia. So not only will Bill Belichick and Tom Brady be pissed off about getting thumped by the Jaguars in Week 2, but they will also be looking to make a statement to a former ally.

Bad news for the haters: the @Patriots are MONEY after a double-digit loss. #GoPats pic.twitter.com/aILGgIFHmk

— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 21, 2018

What’s truly concerning for the Lions in this matchup is the fact that the New York Jets admitted in Week 1 that they knew which plays Matthew Stafford and Lions offense were about to run, leading to four interceptions by Stafford.

If the Jets had any clue what Detroit was about to run, you can bet Belichick has their playbook.

Pick: Patriots -7

Pick #2: Keep Betting Against the Bills

Why stop what’s working? My locks for Week 1 and 2 involved betting against the Bills. Sure, we have to lay a lot more points in Week 3 than the last two weeks, but this is also the best team the Bills have faced thus far, in arguably the most difficult place to play in the league.

Since 2015, the Minnesota Vikings are an NFL-best 20-7 against the spread when playing at home.

Everson Griffen and Dalvin Cook have been ruled out, but this is a very deep Vikings roster. The most damaging injury to report ahead of this game is LeSean McCoy labelled as questionable. If he cannot shoulder the load for the Bills’ offense, they have no hope on Sunday.

Josh Allen, still the guy you remember from Wyoming. pic.twitter.com/b5KMnC3azK

— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) September 17, 2018

Regardless of who’s in or out, though, Josh Allen is simply not ready to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. And he’s going to receive a major wakeup call in Minnesota.

See our full Bills vs Vikings preview.

Pick: Vikings -17

Pick #3: The Rams are Just Hitting Their Stride

Aside from a bit of a shaky first half in Week 1 against the Oakland Raiders, where there was clearly some rust from starters not having played in a real game since January, the Rams have looked utterly dominant.

And what’s truly scary is they appear to be getting better by the quarter.

The Cardinals crossed midfield for the first time on the game’s second-to-last play. That’s 6 consecutive shutout quarters for Rams’ defense.

— Rich Hammond (@Rich_Hammond) September 16, 2018

Playing without Joey Bosa, the Chargers defense has shown some ugly flaws. They were embarrassed by the Chiefs’ speed and deception in Week 1, and they even let Josh Allen and the horrid Bills offense have some second half success in Week 2.

The Rams are going to run circles around the Chargers defense, and Philip Rivers just won’t be able to keep up in the battle of Los Angeles.

Pick: Rams -7

Full Week 3 Picks Against the Spread