Week 4 NFL Picks with Big Potential Payouts: Parlay These Player Props for +6038 Odds

• Get the best NFL picks for Sunday of Week 4 from an industry expert
• There are four players whose betting lines are far too low at the sportsbooks
• Find out the best place to parlay these NFL picks for +6038 odds

One of the most important aspects of being successful at betting on sports is making sportsbooks pay when they set a bad line. I’m not a big fan of simply betting the over on the bad line they have set, as I don’t feel -110/-115 odds provide enough of a reward for identifying the bad lines. Plus, if the line is that bad, the team/player should clear it with ease.

Instead, I like betting alternate lines (or milestones, if you prefer) that offer a better payout for the player to have a much better day than the sportsbooks are anticipating. This is what I have done with my NFL picks for Week 4. After going through all the betting markets for Week 4, I found four players whose betting line is far lower than it should be, and I have taken the over on an alternate line for plus-odds.

See my favorite Week 4 NFL picks below, as well as the best sportsbook to parlay them for a big +6038 potential payout.

Expert NFL Picks for Week 4 Parlay

All four of these NFL picks for Week 4 come with +155 odds or longer, with the longest odds reaching +220. I am betting each one of them as singles, and then also parlaying the four together. The best odds you can find on this parlay are +6038 and are available at bet365.

If you’re not already using this sportsbook, you can use our promo to sign up for bet365 now and tail this parlay.

Of course, if you still have the DraftKings Ghost Leg Parlay bonus available to you, this parlay would be a good use of the bonus, since you’ll still have around a 20-1 payout with any of the legs removed.

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The quick recap of my picks last week is that I went an ugly 1-3. The lengthier one that I would like to vent on is: I fell 14 yards shy on Bijan Robinson’s 125+ rushing and receiving prop, thanks to Michael Penix Jr’s absolutely horrific performance, picked the wrong Raiders receiver to go off against the Commanders, and felt robbed of Daniel Jones hitting 250+ passing yards after a 42-yard completion to Alec Pierce in the third quarter, which would have put him just yards away from 250, was ruled incomplete because Pierce KO’d himself when he hit the ground. Not to mention, Adonai Mitchell was interfered with, drawing a 37-yard penalty, on what would have also put Jones over this milestone.

In hindsight, I feel the reads were pretty good, as every player went over their standard over/under line. I just needed a little better luck – just hitting one of Robinson or Jones would have put me in the positive for the week. But that’s enough complaining about last week.

Let me take you through each of the picks in my NFL parlay for Week 4 below.

Pick #1: Jordan Mason to Record 100+ Rushing Yards in Ireland

I think this is a great spot to hammer the overs on Jordan Mason’s rushing props. Not only is he fresh off a big 116-yard performance in Week 3, where he averaged 7.3 yards per carry in the first game without Aaron Jones, but he gets a Steelers defense that is allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game. Pittsburgh has even allowed a 100-yard rusher in two of three games this season.

Steelers Run Defense in 2025

It’s also worth noting that Justin Fields also ran for 48 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 1. Diving into some of those leading rushers paints an even uglier picture for the Steelers run defense:

• Breece Hall has totaled 50 rushing yards in his other two games this season
• Kenneth Walker averaged 8.1 yards per carry against the Steelers, but is averaging 3.09 yards per rushing attempt across his other three games & has been held to 38 yards or less in two of those games

There isn’t really much to say about the Patriots’ performance. Their rushing attack is not very good and they could not hold onto the football, losing four fumbles. It seems like if you can protect the football, you’re going to have a good day running the ball against Pittsburgh.

While it may be easy to chalk up Mason’s big game last week to the Bengals defense being bad, it was the most rushing yards Cincinnati has given up this season (by quite a bit), and Minnesota took their foot off the gas pretty early. I think a big factor in the performance was the return of LT Christian Darrisaw. He’s one of the best tackles in the NFL and he patched up what had been a pretty big hole for the Vikings’ offense through the first two weeks.

I expect Kevin O’Connell to continue leaning on his ground game with Carson Wentz set to start his second game, and I love the +195 odds bet365 is offering on Mason to rack up 100+ yards in a second straight game.

Pick #2: Keenan Allen for 60+ Receiving Yards (Again)

Simply put, I do not understand why bet365 is offering us +155 odds on Keenan Allen to record 60+ receiving yards. (Not to suggest other sportsbooks are too far off.) This is a feat Allen has accomplished in all three games this season.

2025 Keenan Allen Stats

The volume Allen is seeing has been great to this point. He is seeing an average of 9.3 targets per game, which ties him for seventh-most in the NFL. He’s seeing a team-high 26.4% of Justin Herbert’s pass attempts.

I appreciate that his season-high is just 68 yards, but he has also played some tougher pass defenses so far in the Chiefs and Broncos. Allen is going to see a mediocre-at-best Giants defense in Week 4, and I love the advantage I believe he will have over Paulson Adebo and Andru Phillips.

I’ll gladly take plus odds on a guy doing something he has accomplished in 100% of his games this season.

Pick #3: Daniel Jones 250+ Passing Yards vs Rams

I know Daniel Jones just hurt my bankroll last week, but I felt it was a good read and am happy to come back to him in what I think is an even better situation. Jones and the Colts are taking on the Rams in Week 4, and it will be the first time they’re seeing a good offense this season.

This is good because it will force the Colts to continue throwing the ball, instead of playing with a very positive game script – both the Dolphins and Titans fell pretty far behind early.

Daniel Jones and every QB he has more passing yards than 🙌#ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/5cxYIgX23v

— FanDuel (@FanDuel) September 25, 2025

The Rams play pretty fast on offense too, which is beneficial for Indianapolis’ offense not spending too much time on the sideline before needing to put up points, only averaging 2 minutes and 50 seconds of time per possession.

The one game where the Colts had a competitive opponent this season was Week 2 against the Broncos. Jones threw for 316 yards in that game, and that’s a better defense against the pass and at pressuring the QB than the Rams are.

The Rams defense has yet to surrender 250 yards to a QB, but I think that has more to do with their opponents than them being that good defending the air. LA has played the following QBs:

• Week 1: CJ Stroud (188 yards)
• Week 2: Cam Ward (175 yards)
• Week 3: Jalen Hurts (226 yards)

The Texans and Titans have been two of the league’s worst offenses this season, as Houston’s offense has been all out of sorts and Tennessee has allowed their rookie QB to be pressured on a league-high 37 of his dropbacks. It should be noted that 209 of Hurts’ yards came in the second half of that game, after the Eagles got things sorted with their offense.

This Colts offense is very much in their groove and have done a fantastic job protecting their QB – their QB is also doing a great job getting the ball out of his hands quickly. Jones has already gone over 250 passing yards in two of three games this season, and I like him to make it three of four on Sunday against the Rams.

Pick #4: Caleb Williams to Record 250+ Passing Yards

At first glance, this may not look like a great bet. Caleb Williams only averages 238.3 passing yards per game and has only gone over 250 yards in one of three games this season. However, a closer look into the data has me really liking this bet. Here’s a quick look at Williams’ passing yards each of the first three weeks:

• Week 1 (vs Vikings): 210 yards
• Week 2 (at Lions): 207 yards
• Week 3 (vs Cowboys): 298 yards

The 210 yards against the Vikings actually looks pretty good when you consider Minnesota only allowed 140 yards to Jake Browning last week, and 135 yards to Michael Penix Jr in Week 2. Part of the latter can be attributed to the Falcons being up pretty big most of the game. But the Vikings are only allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt, which is the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

The 207 yards against the Lions looks a lot better when you consider Williams didn’t play either of the Bears’ final two drives of the game with the score out of reach. This was also a game Detroit obviously came out with something to prove and put forth an incredible performance.

I think what we saw from Williams in Week 3 is going to be similar to what we get on Sunday. Dallas’ defense has been carved up through the air in two of three weeks, but Las Vegas’ defense hasn’t been much better. While they only allow 237 net passing yards per game, they give up 7.8 yards per pass attempt, which is 7th-most in the NFL. Here’s how QBs have fared against the Raiders defense so far:

• Week 1: Drake Maye throws for 287 yards
• Week 2: Justin Herbert throws for 242 yards
• Week 3: Marcus Mariota throws for 207 yards

It’s worth noting Herbert only attempted 27 passes in Week 2 and Mariota only attempted 21 in Week 3.

In Jared Goff’s first season with Ben Johnson as his play-caller, he threw for 250+ yards in nine of 17 games. Then he surpassed that milestone in 21 of 34 games over the next two seasons with Johnson. However, some of those misses came as a result of blowouts, or the Lions just having too much success on the ground. I do not believe Chicago will experience that luxury often this season, and don’t foresee the Raiders allowing either of those things in Week 4.

I like Williams and the Bears offense to build upon their performance last week, and take advantage of a bad Raiders defense through the air.

This is the only one of the four picks where the best odds are not found at bet365. You can get him at +155 at bet365, but DraftKings is offering +160.