Week 7 NFL Picks: Best NFL Parlay Features These 4 Player Props with 42-1 Odds

Another NFL Sunday is here, this time it’s Week 7’s version in the 2025-26 season. With 12 games scheduled to be played across four different windows today, it means sportsbooks have a lot of betting markets to monitor, and we have a lot of football to watch/bet.

In combing through all the NFL betting markets available for Week 7, I have pulled out four players who I think are going to significantly outperform the expectations placed on them by sportsbooks. Not only am I taking some alternate lines and betting each as a single, but am also throwing them together as my best NFL parlay for Week 7, which comes with +4199 odds.

Check out my favorite NFL picks below and you can find my data-focused justification for each as well.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 7

I don’t think sportsbooks are giving these four players enough credit in Week 7, or maybe not appreciating how bad the defenses are that they will face.

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I am a firm believer in hitting sportsbooks hard when they set a bad line – you cannot just play it safe and take the -110/-115 win when you have identified a bad line. That’s why I’m betting alternate lines, or milestones if you prefer, with these player props above to get better odds (higher potential payout), and also throwing them together for my favorite Week 7 NFL parlay.

What’s also important when you find these bad lines is ensuring you get the best price available. The best odds you can find on this NFL parlay are +4199 at bet365. In my analysis for each of the four NFL picks below, I also detail the best sportsbook for each leg if you want to follow my lead and bet them as singles as well.

If I lost you anywhere above, check out our guide on how parlays work before you tail my Week 7 NFL parlay, It’s crucial to know what you’re betting!

🏈Dillon Gabriel 200+ Passing Yards (+160)

Dillon Gabriel’s over/under for passing yards in Week 7 is just 172.5. This one doesn’t add up to me. Gabriel has easily surpassed this total in both of his starts this season. The rookie is averaging 205.5 passing yards per game, and he’s being asked to throw the ball a lot.

Based on Quinshon Judkins’ rushing line (95.5) and the spread (CLE -2.5), it seems sportsbooks don’t believe Kevin Stefanski will have his young signal-caller throw the ball without a negative game-script. But I don’t think that will be the case.

Here’s a quick look at Gabriel’s passing stats in his two starts, as well as the defenses he faced in those games.

Dillon Gabriel’s Passing Stats in Games Started

In the table above, the “opponent rank vs pass” column is their league ranking in passing yards allowed per game, with 1st being the best defense vs the pass and 32nd being the worst.

As you can see, Gabriel has thrown for at least 200 yards in one of two starts, and the game he did not achieve the milestone came against one of the league’s best defenses against the pass.

Gabriel will see the Dolphins defense in Week 7, who allows 233.8 passing yards per game (20th) and 8.0 passing yards per attempt (29th). Miami has allowed the opposing QB to throw for at least 200 yards in five of six games this season, where Bryce Young came up two yards shy as the lone QB to not hit 200. This is not a good defense.

While I do think Judkins will find some room on the ground, I expect Stefanski to continue trying to figure out what he has in Gabriel, and he may not even need that many attempts to throw for 200

The best place to bet this NFL player prop milestone as a single is DraftKings, where you’ll find +166 odds. Sign up at DraftKings to tail this pick now!

🏈JK Dobbins 70+ Rushing Yards (+140)

In spite of JK Dobbins continuing to lead the Broncos backfield week-after-week, sportsbooks still sleep on him. You can find his over/under for rushing yards as low as 61.5, but I’m taking it up to 70+ for better odds.

Here’s a look at Dobbins’ rushing yards in each of his six games this season:

• Week 1: 63 yards
• Week 2: 76 yards
• Week 3: 83 yards
• Week 4: 101 yards
• Week 5: 79 yards
• Week 6: 40 yards

He has hit 70 yards in four of six games, which includes four of his last five. Dobbins is seeing 54.2% of Denver’s rushing attempts (16th in NFL), and is averaging a solid 4.86 yards per rushing attempt.

He will now take on a Giants defense that allows 5.12 yards per rushing attempt (4th-worst), and 128.8 rushing yards per game (11th-worst). Here’s how lead backs have fared against New York this season:

Giants Defense vs the Run

It’s worth noting that Kareem Hunt also recorded 34 rushing yards on 10 carries for the Chiefs in Week 3 against the Giants, and Saquon Barkley averaged 4.83 yards per rushing attempt, but the Eagles refused to lean into the ground game, despite leading at halftime.

The Giants have seen three of six opponents’ lead runners achieve at least 70 yards this season. While some may see this failing in two of the last three, which are the three. games Jaxson Dart has started, and get concerned, I think it was more about the offenses they faced.

The Saints are a mess and their offense is one of the league’s worst. Philadelphia’s offense has been struggling to find their identity in Kevin Patullo’s first year as offensive coordinator – Barkley has only surpassed 60 yards on the ground in one of six games this season, after rushing for 2,005 yards last year.

With Bo Nix still struggling to take the next step, Sean Payton has leaned on his reliable running back often, and I foresee him having to do that to lock up a win in Week 7 as well.

If you want to bet Dobbins for 70+ rushing yards as a single as well, the best odds you’ll find are +140 at bet365. If you’re not already registered at bet365, you can claim our great signup bonus now!

🏈Jacory Croskey-Merritt 80+ Rushing Yards (+165)

Though it took longer than I expected, it appears “Bill” has finally arrived in Washington. He has served as the clear lead back in each of the Commanders’ last two games, and despite some fumbling issues, I believe he will continue to serve in that role in Week 7.

Croskey-Merritt has seen 52.5% of Washington’s rushing attempts over the last two weeks, which is held back a bit because of how often Jayden Daniels runs the ball as well. Here’s a look at the rookie’s split of the running back carries in the last three weeks:

• Week 4: 7 of 16 (43.8%)
• Week 5: 14 of 20 (70%)
• Week 6: 17 of 19 (89.5%)

In those two games he rushed for 111 (Week 5) and 61 (Week 6) yards, respectively. While JCM has only recorded 80+ rushing yards in two of six games, he has accomplished the feat in one of two games as the lead back, and is averaging 86 yards per game in that span.

If he can maintain anywhere near the split he has enjoyed over the last two weeks, I like Croskey-Merritt to enjoy a big week against a Cowboys defense that allows 4.66 yards per rushing attempt (9th-worst), and 142.2 rushing yards per game (4th-worst). Dallas has allowed at least 84 rushing yards in all six games this season, which includes the Russell Wilson-led Giants and pre-bye week Bears.

I also like this bet because the Commanders have already ruled out Terry McLaurin, and Deebo Samuel seems to be truly questionable.

Be sure you get bet365’s +165 odds, which are the best available (at the time of writing), on JCM to rush for 80+ yards.

🏈Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ Receiving Yards (+160)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 2025-26 season is off to an incredible start. Here’s a quick look at some of his receiving stats and how he ranks among wide receivers in each category:

• Targets per game: 9.3 (T5th)
• Receptions per game: 7 (5th)
• Receiving yards per game: 116 (1st)
• Targeted air yards per game: 121.3 (2nd)
• Receiving air yards per game: 89.7 (1st)
• Receptions of 20+ air yards: 9 (1st)
• Percent of team targets: 36.4% (1st)

Sam Darnold is looking his way often, and he’s typically not being thrown the ball around the line of scrimmage – JSN is taking big chunks at a time. However, his over/under for receiving yards in Week 7 is just 84.5. I think this is far too low and am betting him to record another 100+ yard game.

Smith-Njigba is not only averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game, but he has achieved the milestone in four of six games, only falling four yards shy in one of the two that went under.

His Week 7 opponent, the Texans, only allow 193.8 passing yards per game, the 5th-fewest in the NFL. But this doesn’t scare me off JSN. Houston is also very good against the run, so I don’t believe Seattle’s offense will be able to just lean on Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

I believe this will be a game where times get tough for Darnold and the Seahawks offense, and they’ll look to their best player to get them through. Smith-Njigba expects to see a lot of Kamari Lassiter on Monday night, and I like the matchup for the young WR.

If you’re going to bet Smith-Njigba to record 100+ receiving yards as a single as well, the best odds available at the time of writing this were +160 at bet365.