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Week 8 NFL Props for Sunday: Can Jared Goff get the better of Aaron Rodgers

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 12:41 PM PDT

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the same odds to win the North as the Vikings and Bears despite going 13-18-1 the past two years. Photo by Mike Morbeck (Wiki Commons).
  • One of Week 8’s premier matchups sees Aaron Rodgers’ Packers meet Jared Goff’s undefeated Rams. 
  • Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky has 181 rushing yards over his last three. Can he keep it going against the Jets?
  • Will the Arizona Cardinals’ offensive struggles continue against the equally bad 49ers?

The NFL’s Week 8 schedule has a few marquee matchups with intriguing individual storylines. In a playoff rematch between the Vikings and Saints on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET), Adam Thielen continues his pursuit of history. With another 100-yard game, he would tie Calvin Johnson’s mark of eight straight.

But our Week 8 props start with Packers vs Rams (4:25 PM ET) and the high-octane QB battle between Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff.

Week 8 NFL Props

Prop #1: Who will have more passing yards: Aaron Rodgers or Jared Goff?

Who will have more passing yards in Week 8? Odds
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers -160
Jared Goff, LA Rams +120

The newest incarnation of The Greatest Show on Turf takes on one of the best of his era.

When you look at these two offenses, they’re doing it very differently. LA already has three players with more than 430 receiving yards this season. They also have the most dangerous running back in the league in Todd Gurley.

The Packers meanwhile have just one player (Davante Adams) with more than 350 receiving yards. While the Rams have four players in double-digits in catches, Green Bay has six.

Despite the differences, Rodgers (1,997) and Goff (2,130) aren’t far off in yardage.

Aaron Rodgers
VS
Jared Goff
286 yards (CHI)
Week 1 233 yards (OAK)
281 yards (MIN)
Week 2 354 yards (ARZ)
265 yards (WSH)
Week 3 354 yards (LAC)
298 yards (BUF)
Week 4 465 yards (MIN)
442 yards (DET)
Week 5 321 yards (SEA)
425 yards (SF)
Week 6 201 yards (DEN)
BYE Week 7 202 yards (SF)

Goff and Rodgers have two common opponents so far. Goff outdid Rodgers against the Vikings, while Rodgers bested Goff against the 49ers. The Packers had to mount a dramatic comeback against San Fran though, while the Rams were up 22-7 at half.

In looking at both pass defenses, the Packers have given up over 400 yards just once. The Rams have given up 400-plus once and 300-plus twice.

The key will be Gurley, and whether he runs all over the Pack.

If he does, expect the Rams to get up big with a balanced attack, meaning Aaron Rodgers will have to air it out to keep his team in it.

The Pick: Rodgers (-160) finishes with more passing yards than Goff.

Prop #2: Will Mitch Trubisky Have a Run Longer than 24.5 Yards?

How long will Mitch Trubisky’s longest run be in Week 8? Odds
Over 24.5 yards +300
Under 24.5 yards -500

While Cam Newton is the leading rusher among QBs with 257 yards on the ground, he’s not the runaway leader. The Bears’ Mitch Trubisky is hot on his heels with 245 yards of his own.
A majority of his production, has also come within the past few weeks.

Week Rushing Yards Longest Run Average
Week 1 (GB) 32 yards 9 yards 4.6 AVG
Week 2 (SEA) 24 yards 17 yards 4.8 AVG
Week 3 (ARZ) 8 yards 7 yards 4.0 AVG
Week 4 (TB) 53 yards 26 yards 17.7 AVG
Week 6 (MIA) 47 yards 28 yards 5.9 AVG
Week 7 (NE) 81 yards 39 yards 13.5 AVG

The common denominator among those last three opponents? Pro Football Focus’ pressure rating: the Dolphins (25th), Patriots (27th) and Buccaneers (32nd) all have a 63.6 pressure grade or lower from PFF.

Chicago’s Week 8 opponent, the New York Jets, sit 21st at 65.7. They’ve also been somewhat victimized by mobile QBs.

When the Jets faced the Dolphins in Week 2, Ryan Tannehill ran for 44 yards with a long of 20. Baker Mayfield did most of his damage from the pocket a week later, but in Week 4, Blake Bortles had 28 yards with 23 of them coming on one carry.

Since then, they’ve surrendered a total of six yards on the ground to opposing QBs. Those QBs were Case Keenum, Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins, though. None of that trio has more than 75 rushing yards on the year, and all three get the ball out quickly, averaging under 2.5 seconds snap-to-pass.

Trubisky, who is just on the cusp at 2.52 seconds to release, has 245 rushing yards on the year and has run all over the AFC East. Expect that to continue.

The Pick: Trubisky has a run OVER 24.5 yards (+300).

Prop #3: How many yards will the Arizona Cardinals gain in Week 8?

How many net yards will the Cardinals finish with in Week 8? Odds
Over 310.5 yards -120
Under 310.5 yards -120

The Arizona Cardinals thought they had it all figured out. They found their quarterback of the future in Josh Rosen. He was insulated with veteran play-makers in David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. They even got him Sam Bradford as a mentor.

Things have not gone Arizona’s way, to put it lightly.

After an embarrassing primetime performance last Thursday (45-10 home loss vs Denver), the Cards canned offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. They turned the reins over to Byron Leftwich. Now Leftwich’s fate as a future head coach and Rosen’s as a franchise QB are tied to one another.

To be even more blunt, Rosen may be in the worst situation for a young QB in the NFL.

So will his debut in Leftwich’s offense yield positive results? Likely not.

Week Rushing Yards Passing Yards Total
Week 1 (WAS) 68 yards 145 yards 213 yards
Week 2 (LAR) 54 yards 82 yards 136 yards
Week 3 (CHI) 53 yards 168 yards 221 yards
Week 4 (SEA) 92 yards 171 yards 263 yards
Week 5 (SF) 56 yards 164 yards 220 yards
Week 6 (MIN) 60 yards 208 yards 268 yards
Week 7 (DEN) 69 yards 154 yards 223 yards

*Rushing and Passing totals from ProFootball Reference

Without a head-to-head match-up already in the books, it could be easier to sell the Cardinals’ chances.

But they’ve played the 49ers with all the key players in their roles outside of Leftwich. Despite winning, it was their third-worst offensive output of the season.

The Pick: Cardinals finish UNDER 310.5 net yards (-120).

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