Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

• In the Week 9 NFL picks against the spread, there are five teams showing NFL-best 6-2 ATS records that are also 6-2 SU
• The Carolina Panthers (1-5-1) are the  NFL’s worst ATS team this season
• All of the Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and early lines to target are outlined in the story below

Analyzing the Week 9 NFL picks against the spread, let’s talk meteorology for a moment. The weather is turning cold and bitter, which for a traditionalist, is the perfect climate for football.

Being a traditionalist at heart, perhaps that explains the perfect week of prognosticating that yours truly enjoyed during Week 8 of the NFL season. Breaking out of an abysmal season-long Adam Gase-level slide, the Duffer went 3-0 on his Week 8 ATS picks. On top of that, there was also a perfect 3-0 slate for my Week 8 straight up upset picks, which might be the biggest upset of the season.

Let’s all pause for a moment while I pat myself on the back.

Now that the gloating is done, let’s get to the NFL lines for the Week 9 ATS picks.

The only thing to fear more than a woman scorned is Patrick Mahomes following a loss. The Kansas City Chiefs QB is 8-0 in his last eight games following a loss as he and the Chiefs head to Germany to face the Miami Dolphins.

Speaking of perfection, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 3-0 in his last three games against the Philadelphia Eagles. In those three games, Dallas has averaged 44 points. In the one prior meeting between Prescott and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, the Cowboys were 41-21 winners.

Last week, the New Orleans Saints compiled 511 yards of offense while beating the Indianapolis Colts. This week, the Saints get the pitiful Chicago Bears. Earlier this year, the Dolphins put up an NFL-record 726 yards while beating the Broncos. Could that mark be in jeopardy?

Let’s check out all the top NFL picks and best early bets in the Week 9 ATS picks.

Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Chiefs, Saints and Cowboys.

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NFL ATS Picks 1: Mahomes Bounces Back

Mahomes was battling illness last week as the Chiefs were being upset by the Broncos. His eight straight wins in the game immediately following a loss is the longest active streak of any NFL QB.

The last question for Mahomes tonight…@SteveWallsKC: "How do you make sure this isn't a domino effect and you keep going?"#Chiefs Patrick Mahomes: "It won't be."

— PJ Green (@PJGreenTV) October 30, 2023

Miami’s offense is paced by QB Tua Tagovailoa, favored over Mahomes at most NFL betting sites in the NFL MVP odds, and former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. The unit is putting up massive numbers – except when the Dolphins play good teams. Against Buffalo and Philadelphia, Miami lost by an average margin of 21 points.

NFL ATS Picks: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 2: Saints Go Bears Hunting

The Saints have found their game. Over the past four games they are averaging 27.3 points per game. QB Derek Carr has passed for more than 300 yards in three straight games. His passer rating last Sunday was 133.3.

Contrast that to a Bears team that is 2-5-1 ATS. Chicago is allowing the third-most sacks (28) and has committed the fourth-most turnovers (13) in the NFL this season.

NFL ATS Picks: New Orleans Saints -7.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 3: Cowboys Ground Eagles

At 7-1 SU, the Eagles are the #1 team in the NFL. But Philadelphia is just 4-2-2 ATS. Dallas is 5-2 ATS and straight up.

The #Cowboys are 8-3 vs the #Eagles when Dak Prescott is the starting QB pic.twitter.com/qUhqHUig6z

— Ernie The Cowboys Fan (@es3_09) October 30, 2023

In his three straight victories over Philly, Prescott has thrown for 11 TDs against one interception. During that one win in head-to-head competition against Hurts, Dak finished with a passer rating of 143.3.

NFL ATS Picks: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-110), 1 unit

• NFL ATS records: 8-15-1

Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

• Steelers (-2.5) vs Titans: Pittsburgh’s pass rush will give Titans rookie QB Will Levis fits
• Falcons (-5.5) vs Vikings: Even if it’s Taylor Heinicke at QB for Atlanta, that’s still better than any of Jaren Hall, Nick Mullens, or Joshua Dobbs for Minnesota

• Browns (-8) vs Cardinals: Cleveland’s defense will dismantle Arizona
• Packers (-3) vs Rams: If Rams QB Matthew Stafford (thumb) can’t go, it’s advantage Green Bay
• Patriots (-3.5) vs Commanders: By dealing Montez Sweat and Chase Young, isn’t Washington running up the white flag on the season?
• Ravens (-5.5) vs Seahawks: Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson owns a .944 career winning percentage (17-1) vs NFC teams

• Buccaneers (+2.5) vs Texans: Tampa Bay does just enough to win what figures to be a very ugly game
• Colts (-3) vs Panthers: It’s been nearly 800 days since Carolina won games in back-to-back weeks
• Raiders (-2.5) vs Giants: This game should come equipped with one of those parental warnings for viewing
• Bengals (-2.5) vs Bills: Joe Burrow is back to giving it to the other team, while Josh Allen keeps giving the ball to the other team. On the road, Buffalo is 1-3 SU and has committed eight turnovers
• Jets (+3) vs Chargers: LA’s AFC team has just done nothing at all to convince you that you should hold any belief in them