By Matt McEwan in NFL News
Published:
With 12 games scheduled for Sunday of Week 9 in the NFL, sportsbooks have a lot of betting markets to monitor. Of course, their attention ends up focused on the markets drawing the most betting handle, while others may not get touched much after opening. I believe I have found four player props that sportsbooks have not put enough of their time into, and are currently underestimating these players.
When I find sportsbooks hanging bad lines, I like to hit them for more than just the -110 odds on the standard line, instead opting for milestones to really increase the potential payout. That’s what I have done with these four NFL picks for Week 9, and have also thrown them together to make up my favorite NFL parlay for Sunday. It comes with +4779 odds, which means a $10 bet would stand to win just under $480.
Check out my best NFL picks as well as my data-focused analysis below.
As has been the case most of the season, bet365 has the best odds for my Week 9 NFL parlay. At the time of writing, I was able to get +4779 odds on this four-leg NFL player prop parlay. All other sportsbooks were offering significantly worse odds.
I am also betting each of these legs as singles – all of them are considered alternate lines or milestones, which will help you locate them at bet365 or whatever other sportsbook you choose.
I was just 1-3 on my picks from last week, losing 1.4 units. I was just six yards away from at least making it 2-2, which would have been good enough to be profitable – so glad the Panthers are choosing this week to do the right thing and hand lead back duties over to Rico Dowdle …
You can read on for my analysis and justification for each of my four NFL picks below.
In the eight games Chase Brown has played so far this season, he has only rushed for 70+ yards in two of them. However, it has been each of the last two games, which marks two of the three games Joe Flacco has started in Cincinnati.
I don’t think this is just a coincidence. Flacco has been able to get the ball in the hands of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and those two have been gashing defenses for big gains with their new QB. Opposing defenses have had to concern themselves with these two playmakers more than they had to with Jake Browning under center.
The result has been more running room for Chase, whose last two games look like so:
Chase Brown Rushing Stats
Prior to these two games, Brown was averaging a horrific 2.7 yards per carry and had never cracked 50 yards in a game. His opponents in those two big games were the Steelers and Jets, who wouldn’t be considered good run defenses, but neither is awful either.
Brown does get the luxury of playing a bad run defense in Week 9, though, as the Bears are allowing 5.28 yards per rushing attempt, which is third-worst in the league. Chicago has allowed at least 120 rushing yards in six of seven games, and have surrendered more than 170 in three of seven. The lone team to not record at least 120 yards on the ground was the Saints, who possess the fourth-worst rushing yards per attempt average.
It sounds like Joe Flacco is going to play, and I like him to continue threatening defenses, forcing them to play with a lighter box than they’d like to. Chase Brown will take advantage of a bad run defense to record his third-straight quality game.
The best odds you’ll find on this prop as a single are +215 at bet365. If you’re not already signed up at bet365, be sure to use our promo code for the best bonus when registering.
It is crazy that Christian McCaffrey, one of the best running backs in the league, has only recorded 90+ rushing yards in one of eight games this season. CMC is averaging just 61.3 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per rushing attempt. The yards per attempt is a career-low, and the yards per game is the third-lowest of his career – he was worse in his four games last season and as a rookie.
Part of this is the fact that he is being used so much as a receiver this season, along with all the injuries around him in San Francisco’s offense, but I’m not sure many people fully appreciate how tough the run defenses are that McCaffrey and the 49ers have faced this season. Take a look at each of his opponents in the table below:
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Stats by Week
As you can see, five of the eight defenses he has played rank in the top ten for yards allowed per rushing attempt, and all but one are in the upper half of the league. The one opponent he faced who ranked in the bottom-half was the Falcons, who he ran all over for 129 yards.
But the tough run defenses stop in Week 9 for McCaffrey, as he prepares to take on a Giants defense that has allowed the most yards per rushing attempt (5.73) and the third-most rushing yards per game (148.9). The Giants just gave up 150 rushing yards to Saquon Barkley last week, which included a 65-yard TD on the second play of the game – Barkley had not totaled 65 yards in six of seven games this season.
I think we’re going to see a very run-heavy script from Kyle Shanahan, as the Niners need a win to keep up with the Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West, and aren’t really in a good position to be beating teams through the air. I like the result to be at least 90 yards from McCaffrey.
If you want to follow my lead and bet McCaffrey to record 90+ rushing yards as a single as well, the best place to do so is bet365, where you’ll find +155 odds.
As Tyler Shough prepares to make his first start as a pro, I cannot believe how low sportsbooks have set his passing over/under. I appreciate the concern in Shough not beating out Spencer Rattler for the starting job – I was quite surprised myself – but I don’t believe there’s much of a gap between the two.
Working off that belief, this is a feat Rattler accomplished in six of eight games this season. The only two teams he did not throw for at least 200 yards against were the Bills, who are the second-best defense against the pass, and Buccaneers last week, where he was benched in the middle of the third quarter.
When Shough took over last week, the Saints were already down 17-3, but in a little over a quarter of action, he managed to throw for 128 yards on 30 attempts. I suspect the rookie will face a similar negative game script in Week 9, as New Orleans is 14-point underdogs on the road against the Rams.
LA allows the 16th-most passing yards per game, but just the fifth-fewest pass yards per attempt. To be clear, I do not believe I am betting Shough to have major success in Week 9. I just believe the volume is going to be there to surpass 199 passing yards in the game.
I do not believe Shough taking over is a move Kellen Moore is making so his team will start winning a bunch of games. I believe part of this decision comes down to needing to figure out what they have in the rookie. It’s looking like the Saints are going to be selecting early in the 2026 NFL Draft, and it is believed to be a strong QB class coming in. So, I think Moore will have Shough throwing the ball often, as he did with Rattler, who ranked 13th in the NFL in pass attempts per game prior to Week 8.
The best odds you’ll find on this milestone are +125 and can be found at bet365.
I am bucking the stats and trends a bit with this pick, as the Bills’ defense is quite good against the pass but awful against the run. With Isiah Pacheco ruled out, I don’t think the Chiefs are going to build a game plan around Kareem Hunt, nor do I think Andy Reid has enough trust in rookie Brashard Smith yet to plan a lot of touches for him.
On top of that, a fair amount of Kansas City’s rushing yards (27.7%) have come from Patrick Mahomes, but he has not rushed for more than 30 yards in a game since Rashee Rice’s return. I’m not suggesting Mahomes won’t use his legs at all against the Bills on Sunday, but I believe the duo of Rice and Xavier Worthy is too good.
Since returning to the lineup, Rice has reassumed the role of Mahomes’ favorite target. He has led the team in targets in both games, and is seeing a target on 36.5% of his offensive snaps and 28.8% of Mahomes’ pass attempts. Here’s what that has produced across two games:
What makes those numbers even more impressive, is that in Rice’s first game back, he only played 40.7% of their offensive snaps. That went up to 85.5% in his second game, which came last week. However, neither of those games were competitive, as the Chiefs won both by at least 21 points.
The Bills are by far the best team the Chiefs have played with Rice in the lineup this season, and I believe he is the player they will lean on should times get tough, or as they’re looking to break the game open. None of Taron Johnson, Christian Benford, or Tre’Davious White are capable of covering Rice, and Worthy’s speed only helps open the field up for Rice.
I like Rice to make it two straight games with at least 90 receiving yards, as he remains the focal point of one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
This is the lone leg of the parlay where bet365 does not have the best odds for it as a single. The best odds you can get are +174 at FanDuel.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
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