You’ll Never Guess Which NFL Team Was the Best Moneyline Bet Last Season
- The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams won an NFL-high 13 games in the 2018 regular season
- Neither team would have returned you very much betting them each week on the moneyline, though
- A team with a losing record was actually the most profitable moneyline bet all season
The 2018 NFL regular season saw 11 teams win double-digit games. That’s 10+ opportunities to profit off them simply winning a game. The Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints each offered you 13 different opportunities to make money just in the regular season.
Yet, due to playing most of the season as a favorite, none of those 10+ win teams provided the best return on investment, as seen in our sports betting data analysis tool – based off betting the same amount of money on them each week (including playoffs).
That honor goes to a team who did not even make the playoffs last year. In fact, they did not even post a winning record. This is a team who only won six games all year!
No, it wasn’t a team from a northern division, nor was it the Denver Broncos – you could have turned a tidy sum betting the under in Broncos games last year, though. It was the lowly Buffalo Bills.
How is this possible, you ask? Let me show you:
Bills 2018 Moneyline Results
| Week | Opponent | Result | Bills’ ML Odds | Balance in Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | L | +290 | -1 |
| 2 | LAC | L | +270 | -2 |
| 3 | MIN | W | +1000 | +8 |
| 4 | GB | L | +295 | +7 |
| 5 | TEN | W | +210 | +9.1 |
| 6 | HOU | L | +380 | +8.1 |
| 7 | IND | L | +250 | +7.1 |
| 8 | NE | L | +725 | +6.1 |
| 9 | CHI | L | +400 | +5.1 |
| 10 | NYJ | W | +245 | +7.55 |
| 12 | JAX | W | +145 | +9 |
| 13 | MIA | L | +180 | +8 |
| 14 | NYJ | L | -230 | +7 |
| 15 | DET | W | -150 | +7.67 |
| 16 | NE | L | +570 | +6.67 |
| 17 | MIA | W | -250 | +7.07 |
Betting the Bills each week last year would have resulted in you being +7.07 units. If one unit for you were $100, you would have walked away with an extra $707 based off betting one unit each week. That’s a 44.1% return on investment!
Obviously, the big one in there was Week 3 when they shocked the Minnesota Vikings on the road as heavy 17-point underdogs.
Went to Minnesota and got the W. #BUFvsMIN pic.twitter.com/yAnx70gUV6
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 24, 2018
Without that big in, the Bills would have lost you a fair amount of money last year.
Bills Listed as Underdogs Again in Week 1 of 2019
In Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season, the Bills are again getting plus odds, being listed as the underdogs. It’s a situation they faced in 13 of 16 games last season. And they’re even more familiar with being underdogs when on the road, a situation they faced in all eight away games last season.
Buffalo’s return on investment in those eight games as road underdogs was a ridiculous 80.6%, in spite of only winning two of them. Again, thank the Vikings.
Bills vs Jets Week 1 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +2.5 (+101) | +125 | O 40.5 (-109) |
| New York Jets | -2.5 (-119) | -145 | U 40.5 (-109) |
*Odds taken September 7
To take a deeper dive into their Week 1 tilt with the Jets, see our Bills vs Jets full odds and stats.
Other Teams Who Profited Big on the Moneyline in 2018
The next best return on investment from moneyline betting last year was the Dallas Cowboys. Including their two playoff games, you would have ended up +7.73 units, which is more than Buffalo, but the return on investment was a little lower, only 42.9%.
However, if you only bet the regular season last year, the Cowboys were actually the best bet. After Week 17, you would have been +8.07 units, good for a 50.4% return on investment. (Don’t tell #BillsMafia; they need some fond memories to look back on.)
Coming in third was the Tennessee Titans, whose 9 wins would have added 5.17 units to your bankroll – a 32.3% return on investment.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
