Will Any Team Score More Than 38 Points on Conference Championship Weekend?
By Bryan Thiel in NFL Football
Updated: April 7, 2020 at 9:26 am EDTPublished:
- The NFC and AFC Championships will be played Sunday in New Orleans and Kansas City
- All four teams were among the highest scoring offenses in the NFL
- Will any team score more than 38 points? And who scores the most en route to the Super Bowl?
And just like that, there are four teams left standing in the NFL.
With the Conference Championships set for this Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams are getting set to travel to New Orleans to face the Saints. After the early game, it’ll be the New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC.
Both games are regular season rematches. Both were high scoring. Will that trend carry over into the AFC and NFC Championship games?
2019 NFL Conference Championship Scoring Odds
Most Points Scored by a Team in Conference Championship Round
| Most Points Scored by any Team in Conference Championship Round | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 38.5 | -120 |
| Under 38.5 | -120 |
Who Will Score the Most Points in the Conference Championship Round?
| Who Will Score the Most Points in the Conference Championship Round? | Odds |
|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | +175 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +200 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +325 |
| New England Patriots | +350 |
4 Remaining Teams Have Offensive Firepower
On a regular day, scoring shouldn’t be a problem for any of the four remaining teams.
The four led the league in total points and points per game. In terms of passing offense, they settled around the upper third of the league.
Offensive Statistics for 4 Remaining NFL Teams
| Team | Points per Game (NFL Rank) | Yards per Game (NFL Rank) | Passing yards per Game (NFL Rank) | Rushing yards per Game (NFL Rank) | PFF Offensive Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 35.3 (1st) | 425.6 (1st) | 309.7 (3rd) | 115.9 (16th) | 93.7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 32.9 (2nd) | 421.1 (2nd) | 281.7 (5th) | 139.4 (3rd) | 95.6 |
| New Orleans Saints | 31.5 (3rd) | 379.2 (8th) | 252.6 (12th) | 126.6 (6th) | 93.9 |
| New England Patriots | 27.2 (4th) | 393.4 (5th) | 266.1 (8th) | 127.3 (5th) | 93.9 |
Their rushing attacks likely would have been there too if it weren’t for Kareem Hunt’s mid-season suspension.
All four teams have more-than-competent quarterbacks, and playmakers at either wide receiver, tight end, or running back. In fact, each has a unique combination of two of those three.
There will be offense…
Chiefs-Patriots Week 6
83 points, 946 yards
4th-highest scoring game 2018Rams-Saints Week 9
80 points, 970 yards
6th-highest scoring game 2018Chiefs-Rams Week 11
105 points, 1,001 yards
3rd-highest scoring game @NFL history— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) January 15, 2019
But the playoffs are different and the saying is “defense wins championships.” So do any of these teams have a defense that can stack up?
How Can High Flying Offenses Be Stopped?
The Patriots have the best scoring defense remaining, allowing 20.3 points per game. While it’s been a tumultuous year in Foxborough, that defense came to play against the Chargers. Don’t let the final score fool you: Philip Rivers only put up 28 points because the game was over at half time.
Defensive Statistics for 4 Remaining NFL Teams
| Team | Points against per Game (NFL Rank) | Yards against per Game (NFL Rank) | Turnover Differential (NFL Rank) | PFF Defensive Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 26.3 (24th) | 4.5.5 (31st) | +9 (6th) | 79.7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 24 (20th) | 358.6 (19th) | +11 (4th) | 89.8 |
| New Orleans Saints | 22.1 (14th) | 349.1 (14th) | +8 (7th) | 86.3 |
| New England Patriots | 20.3 (7th) | 359.1 (21st) | +10 (5th) | 90.0 |
Kansas City turned the tables on their defensive doubters against the Colts, making Andrew Luck look mortal. They also made their pass rush, led by Justin Houston, look vibrant.
https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1084237896553398272
In the NFC, the Rams and Saints are flip flopping. One had a better scoring defense, while the other was able to limit the yards opponents racked up.
Weather Will Be a Factor in Conference Championships
The NFC Championship will be played in a dome. The AFC Championship? It may as well be played at the North Pole.
Once the snow is over, we'll be dealing with the coldest air of the season so far & it's just not the air temperatures. Look at these projected wind chill values on Sunday around kickoff time for the Chiefs vs. Patriots game. Bundle up!!! #KQ2 #Weather pic.twitter.com/0mmnWyIWzR
— Vanessa Alonso (@VAlonsoWeather) January 15, 2019
Have you seen the weather forecast for Kansas City on Sunday? Seriously. That “arctic front” is centered on Arrowhead. That will definitely play a part in slowing down the offenses.
Whose Offense Will Dominate Championship Sunday?
Sorry Pats and Chiefs fans, we’re taking your teams out of this one.
Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are red hot, but no one has ever scored more than 30 points in any of the NFL’s coldest games.
The passing game won’t be as explosive/ routes aren’t as crisp and top speed (Hill) slower. Turns into an old school running game…..Pats roll them if that’s the situation.
— Rob Ninkovich (@ninko50) January 15, 2019
So our attention turns to the NFC, where it will be the Rams outscoring the Saints, putting up at least 39.
Two of the last three NFC Championship games have seen the winner put up over 40. Last year the Eagles put up exactly 38.
The Rams are looking for revenge for their 45-35 loss earlier this season. They’ll get it in explosive fashion.
Take the over (-120) and the LA Rams (+325)
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
