Win Total Bets in the AFC West
After five years spent under Denver Broncos rule, the rest of the AFC West finally went all Twisted Sister and said, We’re Not Gonna Take It (anymore). The Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders each grabbed a leg and chucked the Broncos in the dumpster in 2016. The two posted identical 12-4 records, providing the division with the bragging rights of being the only to spit out multiple 12-win teams.
But the one thing that held the West back from pure dominance was the lowly San Diego Chargers, who finished the season with a measly five wins. The division’s 38 combined wins fell one short of the NFC East for supremacy. Nonetheless, the West surely exceeded expectations, going 2-1-1 against their projected win totals in 2016.
As a result, Vegas has upped the projected win total for the entire division, placing it at 35 – it was set at 34 last year. The West didn’t receive that much of a jump due to their matchups with the AFC East (I should just say the Patriots) and powerful NFC East.
Will the Chargers finally stop being the punching bags of the division and hit their over? Can the Raiders and Chiefs duplicate their impressive 2016s? And has John Elway done enough to turn his Broncos back into Tom Brady’s Kryptonite? Let’s have a look.
[Here’s our previews of the AFC East, AFC North, and AFC South.]AFC West Win Totals
Oakland Raiders: Under 10
I’m sorry, Oakland. Not only are you preparing to lose your beloved football team, but you’re also not going to watch your team go out with a bang. Last season, the Raiders were one of the best stories of the league. This was the case for two reasons: (1) they were winning games in entertaining fashion, and (2) no one foresaw them winning 12 games.
On the former, Oakland won five games by three points or less, and another with 1:45 left in overtime. The Raiders were taking so many gambles that “BlackJack Del Rio” became a thing. Opting to go for two with a minute left in the game, instead of tying it with an extra-point, makes for great television. But it won’t always work out like it did in 2016, especially now that the Raiders are dealing with a second-place schedule in 2017.
Pairing luck with a high-powered offense allowed the Raiders to overcome their lengthy list of defensive shortcomings. Fortunately, the offense is built around a very young core and likely hasn’t peaked. However, Oakland didn’t do much to correct the issues on the other side of the ball.
The Raiders allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season (25th), and their defensive line remains laughable. I liked them investing their first two picks into secondary help in the form of Gareon Conley and Obi Melifonwu, but you’ve gotta be able to stop the run on first and second down. I do not have faith in Oakland accomplishing that.
While the additions of Marshawn Lynch and Jared Cook are sexy, it wasn’t what the Raiders needed to take the next step. Oakland wins in the trenches on offense, and need to start doing so on defense, too. I foresee this team taking a couple steps back in a brutally competitive division before actually reaching the apex, which likely won’t come until they’re in Vegas. (I did apologize at the beginning.)
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 9
If there’s a team that suffered most through the Broncos rule, it was the Chiefs. Kansas City has now posted a 43-21 record under Andy Reid, but only have one home playoff game to show for it. To celebrate finally stepping out of Denver’s shadow, the Chiefs did virtually nothing to improve their roster for 2017.
Instead of staying put at no. 27 and beefing up their run defense, or adding another playmaker who will catch the ball in the playoffs, KC moved up to no. 10 to select raw QB Patrick Mahomes. It’s obvious the Chiefs truly believe Alex Smith is holding them back, but there’s one issue here: the Texas Tech product is not going to be NFL-ready until 2018 at the earliest.
Mahomes has the arm strength to make any throw on the field, and is very athletic, but it’ll take him time to adjust to the pro game. As a Red Raider, Mahomes strictly ran a spread offense. This may wind up as an upgrade, but it won’t be this season.
So how have the Chiefs become any better in 2017? Oh, did I mention they lost Dontari Poe in free agency and cut Jeremy Maclin? And to top it all off, they disposed of GM John Dorsey, whose 2013 arrival lines up with the Chiefs pulling the franchise out of the dump.
The good news for Chiefs fans: this roster was good enough to win 12 games in 2016. And they won those games without much production from a hobbled Maclin. Speed is speed regardless of where you line it up, and Tyreek Hill will prove that this season.
KC will, however, need to be much better against the run. They can’t rely on generating a league-high 33 turnovers again. The return of Justin Houston, who only played in five games last season, and sneaky big addition of Bennie Logan will certainly help.
No matter how close I inspect this team, I just can’t see anything less than nine wins.
Denver Broncos: Over 8.5
In Year 1 Post-Manning, the Broncos suffered a horrible fate in missing the playoffs. Sure, 19 other teams ended their seasons at the same time, but it’s not something this organization is accustomed to, having played beyond Wild Card Weekend in five consecutive seasons.
Fortunately, it doesn’t take a genius to diagnose what went wrong: they got bullied in the trenches. Russell Okung was average at best at left tackle, while neither Donald Stephenson nor Ty Sambrailo slowed anyone down at right tackle. It was so bad up front for Denver that the lone bright spot was Matt Paradis, who was playing with two bummed hips. The result was the Broncos averaging a pitiful 3.6 yards per carry (28th), while allowing Trevor Siemian to get roughed up week after week with 40 sacks allowed (ninth-most).
It wasn’t any better on the defensive side, either. Sylvester Williams wasn’t eating up blockers; Jared Crick got pushed around; and Derek Wolfe, DeMarcus Ware, and Brandon Marshall all missed time with injuries. Von Miller and the No Fly Zone were (somewhat) neutralized simple due to opponents not being forced to pass often. With all that being said, Denver still ranked fourth in total defense and points allowed.
Looking to address the issue in the trenches, John Elway signed NT Domato Peko, RT Menelik Watson, and RG Ronald Leary, while drafting LT Garett Bolles in the first-round of the NFL Draft and DL DeMarcus Walker in the second. The group brings some extra beef and a nastiness that Elway loves.
If there’s one concern regarding Denver’s defense, it’s whether Joe Woods can call a game the way Wade Phillips did. Phillips, who’s now running the Rams defense, is known to blitz, and then blitz some more. The Broncos were able to relentlessly pressure QBs and not worry about getting beat deep with Chris Harris and Aqib Talib locking down opposing WRs. This is why they won Super Bowl 50. Woods has some massive shoes to fill, but he’s at least familiar with what worked, having served as the DBs coach in Denver over the last two seasons.
In order for Denver to get back to contention, either Siemian or Paxton Lynch will have to prove they can make those tough throws to move the chains on third-downs. There’s no doubt this team wants to run the ball early and often with CJ Anderson and newcomer Jamaal Charles, but situations will arise where the QB needs to make a throw. Mike McCoy, who’s returning to his OC duties after four years as the HC in San Diego, and former Raiders OC Bill Musgrave, who was hired as Denver’s QB coach, will dramatically improve the development of the two young pivots.
Besides, with the plethora of weapons Siemian or Lynch will have around them, neither will have to morph into Aaron Rodgers for the Broncos to put points on the board.
Even if the Broncos defense takes a step back, the offense will take the necessary steps forward to cover them.
Los Angeles Chargers: Under 7.5
Hey Dean Spanos, you’re a jerk! And even though I’d love to spend this time ripping you for moving one of the NFL’s oldest franchises, I’ll at least keep this article on topic, and vent my frustrations in the form of why the Chargers won’t be winners in LA, either.
Let’s start with how the Chargers nearly severed their relationship with 2016 Defensive Rookie of the Year. Sure, Joey Bosa may have been asking for a little more money than the usual rookie, but if you thought he was special enough to invest a third-overall pick in, then pay the man! The contract dispute carried into late August and even though he did eventually sign, will that relationship ever be fully restored? The Chargers better be ready to kiss some ass for the next three seasons, because losing Bosa would be devastating.
Moving on to the actual product on the field, the Chargers defense was extremely opportunistic in 2016. They were often put out on the field with their backs against the wall but were able to generate 28 takeaways (fourth) of their own, largely thanks to free agent pickup Casey Hayward leading the league with seven INTs.
Once Bosa returned from his hamstring injury, their front seven was pretty stingy against the run, only allowing 3.8 yards per carry (seventh). He and Melvin Ingram also formed a solid pass-rushing duo on the outsides, combining for 18.5 sacks. They did have their issues against the pass, but those can be credited to Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers only combining to play 10 games.
So what’s the problem with the defense? Nothing, other than still only being the third-best defense in the division. If a divisional game comes down to a defensive struggle, I’m taking the other team in two of three occasions.
And unfortunately, the Chargers may find themselves relying on their defense a little more than they’d like again. I certainly don’t expect Philip Rivers (21 INTs) and the offense to turn the ball over a league-high 35 times again, but their offensive line doesn’t instill much confidence. Last year, they couldn’t run the ball (26th in yards per carry), and Rivers had very little protection. Forrest Lamp will help, but the Chargers got a front-row seat to the decline of Okung last season.
Add in the fact that their seventh-overall pick Mike Williams is falling behind due to a herniated disc, and may start the season on the PUP, and you’ve got major concerns.
No, I don’t believe the Chargers will lose 11 games in 2017, but trying to climb out of the basement of the AFC West is going to be very difficult. And they sure can kiss any homefield advantage goodbye. This team screams 7-9. (Can I sneak in one more “you suck, Spanos”?)
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
