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Avalanche, Despite Best NHL Record, Listed as +124 Underdogs vs Blues on October 21

Alex Pietrangelo
The St. Louis Blues host the Avalanche on Monday night as -137 favorites. (Wiki Commons) [CC License] Photo By Sarah Connors
  • Colorado (7-0-1) is the only team without a regulation loss so far
  • St. Louis has lost four games in a row, scoring three goals or fewer each time
  • The Blues have won eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups

Amid a four-game homestand and in desperate need of a win, the St. Louis Blues host the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday. Colorado enters as the NHL’s top team, with 15 points in eight games and a plus-14 goal differential.

Having lost four in a row, the Blues might be in need of a matchup with the Avalanche — sounds weird, right? But St. Louis has had the upper hand in recent history, which might explain why they’re favored in the Blues vs. Avalanche odds.

St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
St. Louis Blues -137 -1.5 (+190) Over 6 (-108)
Colorado Avalanche +124 +1.5 (-220) Under 6 (-102)

* Odds taken 10/21/19

A Long Road Ahead

Colorado is currently on its longest road trip of the year, a six-game stretch that started in Washington, headed south to Florida and will ultimately end out west in Las Vegas. The Avalanche accrued their only loss of the season on this trip, against Pittsburgh, but only because of a fluky overtime goal.

Still, Colorado is 3-1 on the road this season and 4-0 against the spread. It’s no wonder their +1.5 spread comes with extremely short -220 odds — they haven’t lost by more than a goal since April.

Stanley Cup Hangover?

Only about 10-percent of the season is complete, so it’s a little early to be making rash judgments on how teams have fared. The Blues are a prime example, as a team that went worst-to-first to win the Stanley Cup last season.

But it’s not a stretch to say the Blues have struggled this year, particularly in recent games. They’ve dropped four in a row, scoring three or fewer goals each time. As the moneyline favorite this year, they have just a 2-4 record.

They have no injuries and their shooting percentage (11.0) and save percentage (.909) are fairly normal. The results simply haven’t been there.

Head to Head Favors the Champs

Strangely enough, Colorado might be just the team St. Louis needs to see. The Blues have won four in a row and eight of 10 against the Avalanche, dating back to the end of the 2016-17 season. Six of those games went under the six-goal total, which is what Tuesday’s matchup is set at.

It’s worth noting that both starters — Colorado’s Philipp Grubauer and St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington — should be in net after sitting out their most recent games for rest.

Decision Time

Recent head-to-head results aside, Colorado has been the much better team so far and bettors should take advantage of their underdog status against a struggling St. Louis team. Until they prove otherwise, the Avalanche are the right bet as a group that has already shown an ability to score in bunches and win on the road.

It doesn’t hurt to have MVP candidate Nathan MacKinnon leading the charge, either. He has 11 points on a season-opening eight-game point streak.

In terms of the Over/Under, it might be best to lean on the “Under” due to the Blues’ scoring difficulties. They’ve scored three or fewer goals in seven of eight games so far.

Pick: Colorado (+124); Under 6 (-102)

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