Bruins & Blues Each Given -290 Odds of Advancing to Conference Finals After Winning Game 1
- Teams who win Game 1 go on to win best-of-seven playoff series 68.5% of the time (472-217)
- Boston and St. Louis both won Game 1 of their respective series
- Of the two underdogs, the Stars are more likely to rebound than the Blue Jackets
Both the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues started their second-round series with a win in Game 1.
The Bruins came back to beat Columbus in OT, 3-2, while the Blues hung on for their own 3-2 win over Dallas.
Is that a sign of things to come or is now a good time to bet the underdog Blue Jackets and Stars, since they are offering an even greater payout?
Let’s take a closer at the updated odds and analyze the value.
Blue Jackets vs Bruins Series Odds after Game 1
| Team | Blue Jackets vs Bruins series price |
|---|---|
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +240 |
| Boston Bruins | -290 |
It’s Already a Different Series for the Blue Jackets
We’re only one game into the second round of the playoffs but it’s fairly clear that the Columbus Jackets had a rude wake-up call. This team swept the top-seeded Tampa Bay Lightning in the opening round and simply could not lose. In Round 2, they were immediately turned back in a 3-2 OT loss.
The Blue Jackets struggled most of the game, but scored two quick goals 13 seconds apart in the third period to take a 2-1 lead. The second was a complete fluke, as an Artemi Panarin slapshot from the blueline took two deflections on the way in.
The shots were 12-1 Boston late in the first period, and Columbus was outshot 37-22 for the game. If those types of numbers continue, they’ll be losing by bigger margins.
The Blue Jackets have to be concerned because they don’t play well against Boston (lost the seven of the last 11 regular-season meetings) and couldn’t beat the Bruins in a situation where Boston was fatigued.
Boston played a physical, draining seven-game series with Toronto and won Game 1 versus a Blue Jackets team that was fully rested after a week off. That’s an ominous sign.
One of my biggest concerns with betting the Blue Jackets in this series was that Sergei Bobrovsky has an awful track record against the Boston (save percentage below .900). Bobrovsky played adequately in Game 1 – stopping 34 of 37 shots – and the Blue Jackets still lost. That’s another concerning sign.
Stars vs Blues Series Odds after Game 1
| Team | Stars vs Blues series price |
|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | +240 |
| St. Louis Blues | -290 |
Blues Stifle Stars
The Blues-Stars series will be a “Race to 3.” Whichever of these defensive-minded teams gets to three goals will probably win every time. On Thursday, that was the Blues, who got two goals from Vladimir Tarasenko.
What was surprising was that the Blues scored three goals on just 20 shots; Dallas goalie Ben Bishop (.934 regular-season SV%; .937 playoff SV%) normally plays better than that.
Binnington with the SAVE. pic.twitter.com/nXdr89HphO
— NHL on NBC (@NHLonNBCSports) April 26, 2019
This will still probably be a very long series, so I wouldn’t bet the Blues here. I liked them before the series and I still like them, but I would expect Dallas to extend this to six or seven games, which means there will be opportunities to bet on St. Louis at longer odds.
Remember that rookie goalie Jordan Binnington (a.k.a. “Winnington”), who went 24-5-1 in the regular season, suffered two of his six losses to the Stars.
That, plus the Stars’ effort in Game 1 (where they outshot St. Louis 29-20), leads me to believe they’ll bounce back in Game 2.
Best Value Bet after Game 1s?
If you’re a betting man (which you are, because you’re here), fade the Blue Jackets at this point and hold-off on Stars/Blues altogether.
As mentioned, I see St. Louis winning, but Dallas making it a tight series. So I’m not inclined to buy high on the Blues given how steeply the price has climbed after the first game of the series.
With the Bruins, I liked them to win the series before and I like them even more now. Columbus was lucky to force OT in Game 1; their rest advantage won’t be as pronounced going forward; and history says there’s a subpar game coming from Bobrovsky.
If you don’t mind laying some juice, bet the Bruins at -290. I surely wouldn’t be betting the Blue Jackets. Game 1 showed us that their first-round upset of Tampa Bay was more matchup based than anything else.
Pick: Bruins to advance (-290).
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
